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Morning Consult
Survey insights into which countries are most and least opposed to vaccinations, and what factors are driving skepticism.
 
AP NEWS
The fast-moving omicron variant may cause less severe disease on average, but COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are climbing and modelers forecast 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans could die by the time the wave subsides in mid-March. ...
Published on the web: 18 hours ago
 
Washington Post
With school districts keeping mask requirements in place, will Youngkin become another Ron DeSantis?...
Published on the web: 20 hours ago
Covid    
 
AP NEWS
HONG KONG (AP) — Hong Kong authorities said Tuesday that they will kill about 2,000 small animals, including hamsters, after several tested positive for the coronavirus at a pet store where an employee was also infected. ...
Published on the web: yesterday
Aeronautics    
 
NBC News
U.S. airline leaders have warned that the rollout of a new 5G service could cause "catastrophic" disruptions to the aviation industry.
Published on the web: 16 hours ago
<article><div><header><div><time class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__extra_small___3GR_6R ArticleHeader__dateline___3khHof"><span class="DateLine__date___12trWy">January 18, 2022</span><span class="DateLine__date___12trWy">6:30 AM UTC</span><span class="DateLine__date___12trWy">Last Updated ago</span></time><div><span class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__medium___1ocDap Text__heading_4___Ks3Gpt Heading__base___1dDlXY Heading__heading_4___-kdQkt"><span class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__tr-orange___2pfU9O Text__h5-bold___2R9MpJ Text__heading_5___3obGkm Heading__base___1dDlXY heading_5_bold ArticleHeader__section___115N2f"><a href="www.reuters.com/technology" target="_blank">Technology</a></span></span><h1 style="font-size:1.2em">Major U.S. airlines warn 5G could ground some planes, wreak havoc</h1></div><div>By <a target="_blank">David Shepardson</a></div><span class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__extra_small___3GR_6R Label__label___2Fe3cH Label__small___1kKu4y ArticleHeader__read-time___2ZgoYp">4 minute read</span></div></header><div><div><div><div><div><h6 class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__white___2ncio9 Text__medium___1ocDap Text__heading_6___m3CqfX Heading__base___1dDlXY Heading__heading_6___1ON736 RegistrationPrompt__heading___wc_GPj">Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com</h6></div></div></div><div><p data-testid="paragraph-0" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The chief executives of major U.S. passenger and cargo carriers on Monday warned of an impending "catastrophic" aviation crisis in less than 36 hours, when AT&T <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/T.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(T.N)</a> and Verizon <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/VZ.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(VZ.N)</a> are set to deploy new 5G service.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-1" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The airlines warned the new C-Band 5G service set to begin on Wednesday could render a significant number of widebody aircraft unusable, "could potentially strand tens of thousands of Americans overseas" and cause "chaos" for U.S. flights.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-2" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">"Unless our major hubs are cleared to fly, the vast majority of the traveling and shipping public will essentially be grounded," wrote the chief executives of American Airlines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/AAL.O" target="_blank" target="_blank">(AAL.O)</a>, Delta Air Lines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/DAL.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(DAL.N)</a>, United Airlines , Southwest Airlines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/LUV.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(LUV.N)</a> and others in a letter first reported by Reuters.</p><div><div><h5 class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__white___2ncio9 Text__medium___1ocDap Text__heading_5___3obGkm Heading__base___1dDlXY Heading__heading_5___3VJIV0 RegistrationPrompt__heading___wc_GPj">Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com</h5></div></div><p data-testid="paragraph-3" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has warned that potential interference could affect sensitive airplane instruments such as altimeters and significantly hamper low-visibility operations.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-4" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">"This means that on a day like yesterday, more than 1,100 flights and 100,000 passengers would be subjected to cancellations, diversions or delays," the <a href="https://twitter.com/davidshepardson/status/1483148794690740224?s=20" target="_blank" target="_blank">letter</a> cautioned.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-5" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">Airlines late on Monday were considering whether to begin canceling some international flights that are scheduled to arrive in the United States on Wednesday.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-6" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">"With the proposed restrictions at selected airports, the transportation industry is preparing for some service disruption. We are optimistic that we can work across industries and with government to finalize solutions that safely mitigate as many schedule impacts as possible," plane maker Boeing <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/BA.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(BA.N)</a> said on Monday.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-7" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">Action is urgent, the airlines added in the letter also signed by UPS Airlines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/UPS.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(UPS.N)</a>, Alaska Air <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/ALK.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(ALK.N)</a>, Atlas Air <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/AAWW.O" target="_blank" target="_blank">(AAWW.O)</a>, JetBlue Airways and FedEx Express <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/FDX.N" target="_blank" target="_blank">(FDX.N)</a>. "To be blunt, the nation’s commerce will grind to a halt."</p><p data-testid="paragraph-8" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The letter went to White House National Economic Council director Brian Deese, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, FAA Administrator Steve Dickson and Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-9" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">Airlines for America, the group that organized the letter, declined to comment. The FAA said it "will continue to ensure that the traveling public is safe as wireless companies deploy 5G. The FAA continues to work with the aviation industry and wireless companies to try to limit 5G-related flight delays and cancellations."</p><p data-testid="paragraph-10" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The other government agencies did not comment.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-11" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">'INTERVENTION IS NEEDED'</p><figure data-testid="image-0"><figcaption class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__medium-grey____X3zmS Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__small___MoVgdT Body__base___25kqPt Body__caption___1g8_ry ArticleImage__figcaption___2BB5sN">A Southwest Airlines plane approaches to land at San Diego International Airport as U.S. telecom companies, airlines and the FAA continue to discuss the potential impact of 5G wireless services on aircraft electronics in San Diego, California, U.S., January 6, 2022. REUTERS/Mike Blake</figcaption></figure><p data-testid="paragraph-12" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">AT&T and Verizon, which won nearly all of the C-Band spectrum in an $80 billion auction last year, on Jan. 3 agreed to buffer zones around 50 airports to reduce interference risks and take other steps to cut potential interference for six months. They also agreed to delay deployment for two weeks until Wednesday, temporarily averting an aviation safety standoff, after previously delaying service by 30 days.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-13" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">Verizon and AT&T declined comment on Monday. They argue C-Band 5G has been successfully deployed in about 40 other countries without aviation interference issues.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-14" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The CEOs of major airlines and Boeing Chief Executive Dave Calhoun held a lengthy call with Buttigieg and Dickson on Sunday to warn of the looming crisis, officials told Reuters.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-15" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">United Airlines late Monday separately warned the issue could affect more than 15,000 of its flights, 1.25 million passengers and snarl tons of cargo annually.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-16" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">United said it faces "significant restrictions on 787s, 777s, 737s and regional aircraft in major cities like Houston, Newark, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago."</p><p data-testid="paragraph-17" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The airlines ask "that 5G be implemented everywhere in the country except within the approximate 2 miles (3.2 km) of airport runways" at some key airports.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-18" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">"Immediate intervention is needed to avoid significant operational disruption to air passengers, shippers, supply chain and delivery of needed medical supplies," they said.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-19" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The airlines added that flight restrictions will not be limited to poor weather operations.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-20" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">"Multiple modern safety systems on aircraft will be deemed unusable causing a much larger problem than what we knew... Airplane manufacturers have informed us that there are huge swaths of the operating fleet that may need to be indefinitely grounded."</p><p data-testid="paragraph-21" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">One area of concern is whether some or all Boeing 777s will be unable to land at some key U.S. airports after 5G service starts, as well as some Boeing cargo planes, airline officials told Reuters.</p><p data-testid="paragraph-22" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The airlines urged action to ensure "5G is deployed except when towers are too close to airport runways until the FAA can determine how that can be safely accomplished without catastrophic disruption."</p><p data-testid="paragraph-23" class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">The FAA said on Sunday it had cleared an estimated 45% of the U.S. commercial airplane fleet to perform low-visibility landings at many airports where 5G C-band will be deployed and they expect to issue more approvals before Wednesday. The airlines noted on Monday that the list did not include many large airports.</p><div><div><h5 class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__white___2ncio9 Text__medium___1ocDap Text__heading_5___3obGkm Heading__base___1dDlXY Heading__heading_5___3VJIV0 RegistrationPrompt__heading___wc_GPj">Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com</h5></div></div><div><span class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__default___1Xh7Yh SignOff__text___2onKdN">Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Bill Berkrot and Gerry Doyle</span></div><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs">Our Standards: <a href="https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html" target="_blank" target="_blank">The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.</a></p></div></div></div></div></article>
Published: Yesterday
<div itemprop="articleBody"> <meta itemprop="isAccessibleForFree" content="true"> <p>Chief Justice Don Beatty made this interesting disclaimer Tuesday when the state Supreme Court heard arguments in two lawsuits over school mask mandates.</p><p>“We are not medical professionals, we are not politicians,” Beatty said. “Any decision we may make will be based purely on the rule of law.”</p><div><article id="card-summary-f0e02068-0a5d-11ec-8ca2-77c5bbfa1204" class="tnt-asset-type-article clearfix card summary has-image letterbox-style-default tnt-section-columbia tnt-sub-section-news"> <div><div> <div data-aspect=""><figure> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/columbia/news/sc-supreme-court-seeks-to-set-aside-politics-health-policy-in-deciding-school-mask-debate/article_f0e02068-0a5d-11ec-8ca2-77c5bbfa1204.html" aria-label="SC Supreme Court seeks to set aside politics, health policy in deciding school mask debate" target="_blank"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" alt="SC Supreme Court seeks to set aside politics, health policy in deciding school mask debate" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=200,133 200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=225,150 225w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=400,267 400w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=540,360 540w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=640,427 640w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=750,500 750w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=990,660 990w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=1035,690 1035w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=1200,800 1200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=1333,888 1333w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=1476,984 1476w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/25/9254cf1a-0a7d-11ec-9b8b-fba832c614a3/5ec2d27a203a3.image.jpg?resize=1763,1175 2008w" title="SC Supreme Court seeks to set aside politics, health policy in deciding school mask debate" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.postandcourier.comdata:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg=="> </a> </div> </figure></div> </div> <div><div> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/columbia/news" target="_blank">Columbia News</a> </div> </div> <div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em"> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/columbia/news/sc-supreme-court-seeks-to-set-aside-politics-health-policy-in-deciding-school-mask-debate/article_f0e02068-0a5d-11ec-8ca2-77c5bbfa1204.html" aria-label="SC Supreme Court seeks to set aside politics, health policy in deciding school mask debate" target="_blank"> SC Supreme Court seeks to set aside politics, health policy in deciding school mask debate</a></h3></div> <div> <ul class="list-inline"><li class="card-byline text-muted"><span id="author-b69657c0-3a19-11eb-b732-0bcc300a52cd-asset-f0e02068-0a5d-11ec-8ca2-77c5bbfa1204" class="tnt-byline asset-byline">By Stephen Fastenau sfastenau@postandcourier.com</span> </li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </article></div><p>Which is funny because the exact problem in South Carolina right now is politicians playing medical professionals. Lawmakers included a proviso in this year’s state budget meant to prohibit schools from requiring students and staff to wear masks.</p><p>And how’s that working out?</p><p>Well, Dorchester District 4 just became the state’s most recent school district to shift to virtual learning, and Dorchester District 2 has 3,500 students — more than 10% of its enrollment — in quarantine. At least three Dorchester 2 employees have died of COVID-19 since school started.</p><div><article id="card-summary-1a421716-09bb-11ec-9fa3-433cede1acf0" class="tnt-asset-type-article clearfix card summary has-image letterbox-style-default tnt-section-news"> <div><div> <div data-aspect=""><figure> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/news/dd2-reports-more-than-3-500-students-in-quarantine-other-districts-dont-report-numbers/article_1a421716-09bb-11ec-9fa3-433cede1acf0.html" aria-label="DD2 reports more than 3,500 students in quarantine. Other districts don't report numbers." target="_blank"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" alt="DD2 reports more than 3,500 students in quarantine. Other districts don't report numbers." data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=150,101 150w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=200,135 200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=225,151 225w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=300,202 300w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=400,269 400w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=540,363 540w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=640,430 640w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=750,504 750w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=990,666 990w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=1035,696 1035w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=1200,807 1200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=1333,897 1333w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg?resize=1476,993 1476w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/b3/9b3eca8a-09c5-11ec-b7ba-17f68c66d418/5f69045fed9ff.image.jpg 2008w" title="DD2 reports more than 3,500 students in quarantine. Other districts don't report numbers." style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.postandcourier.comdata:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg=="> </a> </div> </figure></div> </div> <div><div> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/news" target="_blank">News</a> </div> </div> <div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em"> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/news/dd2-reports-more-than-3-500-students-in-quarantine-other-districts-dont-report-numbers/article_1a421716-09bb-11ec-9fa3-433cede1acf0.html" aria-label="DD2 reports more than 3,500 students in quarantine. Other districts don't report numbers." target="_blank"> DD2 reports more than 3,500 students in quarantine. Other districts don't report numbers.</a></h3></div> <div> <ul class="list-inline"><li class="card-byline text-muted"><span id="author-3d2d9394-c57c-11e8-ac5d-b7c4c026803b-asset-1a421716-09bb-11ec-9fa3-433cede1acf0" class="tnt-byline asset-byline">By Jerrel Floyd jfloyd@postandcourier.com </span> </li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </article></div><p>That’s horrible, but unsurprising, since Dorchester County has the worst uncontrolled spread in the Carolinas.</p><p>You have to figure Charleston County schools, with 2,000 students in quarantine, and Berkeley County schools, with 1,000 positive cases (an average of nearly one per classroom) can’t be far behind. And boy, will the hollering ramp up if that happens.</p><div><article id="card-summary-ba6bbce4-0685-11ec-b8ed-432bee5ec5c7" class="tnt-asset-type-article clearfix card summary has-image letterbox-style-default tnt-section-berkeley-independent tnt-sub-section-education"> <div><div> <div data-aspect=""><figure> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/berkeley-independent/education/parents-throughout-lowcountry-push-for-mask-mandates-after-deaths-of-dd2-staff-members/article_ba6bbce4-0685-11ec-b8ed-432bee5ec5c7.html" aria-label="Parents throughout Lowcountry push for mask mandates after deaths of DD2 staff members" target="_blank"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" alt="Parents throughout Lowcountry push for mask mandates after deaths of DD2 staff members" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=200,133 200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=225,150 225w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=400,267 400w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=540,360 540w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=640,427 640w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=750,500 750w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=990,660 990w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=1035,690 1035w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=1200,800 1200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=1333,888 1333w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=1476,984 1476w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/06/f0656110-0685-11ec-9dfd-47a27eb435f4/6127b9e15b434.image.jpg?resize=1763,1175 2008w" title="Parents throughout Lowcountry push for mask mandates after deaths of DD2 staff members" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.postandcourier.comdata:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg=="> </a> </div> </figure></div> </div> <div><div> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/berkeley-independent/education" target="_blank">Education</a> </div> </div> <div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em"> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/berkeley-independent/education/parents-throughout-lowcountry-push-for-mask-mandates-after-deaths-of-dd2-staff-members/article_ba6bbce4-0685-11ec-b8ed-432bee5ec5c7.html" aria-label="Parents throughout Lowcountry push for mask mandates after deaths of DD2 staff members" target="_blank"> Parents throughout Lowcountry push for mask mandates after deaths of DD2 staff members</a></h3></div> <div> <ul class="list-inline"><li class="card-byline text-muted"><span id="author-c194d194-575e-11eb-8794-b378d7706777-asset-ba6bbce4-0685-11ec-b8ed-432bee5ec5c7" class="tnt-byline asset-byline">Abigail Hutchinson ahutchinson@journalscene.com</span> </li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </article></div><p>Many people griping the loudest made this worse by refusing to get vaccinated and increasing the chance of more variants. But some of them will take livestock dewormer — which is fitting since anybody who’d do that resembles one end of a horse.</p><p>This craziness has put our schools in a tailspin. Parents complained to the Charleston County School Board last week about their kids having to quarantine because of COVID exposures. Shouldn’t they be more worried about their child getting ill?</p><p>On Monday, the federal Education Department announced that South Carolina is one of five states being investigated for outlawing local school districts from using masks to stem the spread of a disease. State officials argue that choice is best left to a child’s parents because, freedom.</p><div><article id="card-summary-9f9c3d1c-09b9-11ec-8a46-231d996cbc2e" class="tnt-asset-type-article clearfix card summary has-image letterbox-style-default tnt-section-health"> <div><div> <div data-aspect=""><figure> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/health/feds-open-civil-rights-investigation-in-sc-over-law-prohibiting-mask-mandate-in-schools/article_9f9c3d1c-09b9-11ec-8a46-231d996cbc2e.html" aria-label="Feds open civil rights investigation in SC over law prohibiting mask mandate in schools" target="_blank"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" alt="Feds open civil rights investigation in SC over law prohibiting mask mandate in schools" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=150,101 150w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=200,135 200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=225,152 225w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=300,203 300w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=400,270 400w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=540,365 540w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=640,432 640w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=750,506 750w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=990,668 990w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=1035,699 1035w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=1200,810 1200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=1333,900 1333w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=1476,997 1476w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/71/1718c20c-09ba-11ec-8243-7bafb62188a8/6123baef241d6.image.jpg?resize=1752,1183 2008w" title="Feds open civil rights investigation in SC over law prohibiting mask mandate in schools" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.postandcourier.comdata:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg=="> </a> </div> </figure></div> </div> <div><div> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/health" target="_blank">Health</a> </div> </div> <div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em"> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/health/feds-open-civil-rights-investigation-in-sc-over-law-prohibiting-mask-mandate-in-schools/article_9f9c3d1c-09b9-11ec-8a46-231d996cbc2e.html" aria-label="Feds open civil rights investigation in SC over law prohibiting mask mandate in schools" target="_blank"> Feds open civil rights investigation in SC over law prohibiting mask mandate in schools</a></h3></div> <div> <ul class="list-inline"><li class="card-byline text-muted"><span id="author-25d14468-79dc-11e6-98fc-778ac264bfd9-asset-9f9c3d1c-09b9-11ec-8a46-231d996cbc2e" class="tnt-byline asset-byline">By Lauren Sausser lsausser@postandcourier.com</span> </li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </article></div><p>That’d be fine if COVID-19 wasn’t a communicable disease, and their choices didn’t potentially put other people at risk. Instead, it illustrates the stark hypocrisy and lack of common sense in politics today.</p><div id="tncms-region-article_instory_middle"><div id="tncms-block-795982"><style> input#fieldEmail {width:100%; border: 1px solid #b0b6bb; box-shadow: inset 0 1px 2px rgba(0,0,0,0.1); border-radius:3px;} button.js-cm-submit-button {width:100%; font-family:"adelle-sans", sans-serif; color: #fff; background-color:#0078c1; padding:3px 0; border:0px;} h3.signup-header {font:18px 'adelle-sans', sans-serif; border-bottom: solid 1px #cccccc; padding-bottom:8px;} h5.description {font-family:"adelle-sans", sans-serif; line-height:inherit;} label {font-size:smaller; font-family:"adelle-sans", sans-serif; font-weight: 400;} </style><div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Sign up for our new opinion newsletter</h3> <h5 class="description">Get a weekly recap of South Carolina opinion and analysis from The Post and Courier in your inbox on Monday evenings.</h5> <form id="subForm" class="js-cm-form" action="https://www.createsend.com/t/subscribeerror?description=" method="post" data-id="A61C50BEC994754B1D79C5819EC1255C8EA76ED0AE291E7329F7FC5581E9CC6B4ED96B9DE80F452625BE838EA81C805EFC382C78B3BFFE445436C1B39AB90210"> <p> <label for="fieldEmail">Email</label> <br></p> <p> </p> </form> </div></div></div><p>By that argument, shouldn’t parents — and not bureaucrats — be the arbiters of what their kids wear to school? We’ll wait while lawsuit-happy Attorney General Alan Wilson runs to court to defend a girl whose skirt is deemed too short by some of the “Footloose” crowd.</p><p>If the people know best, lawmakers should just ditch DUI laws. After all, don’t people really know best when they’ve had too much to drink?</p><p>No, because some laws are meant to protect us from the careless and irresponsible. You know, people who would blow a deadly disease in someone else’s face while screaming “freedom.”</p><div><article id="card-summary-1689ed02-06c7-11ec-8428-6f32e20bbaf1" class="tnt-asset-type-article clearfix card summary has-image letterbox-style-default tnt-section-opinion tnt-sub-section-commentary"> <div><div> <div data-aspect=""><figure> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/opinion/commentary/scoppe-how-sc-gets-stuck-with-bad-laws-most-legislators-had-no-interest-in-passing/article_1689ed02-06c7-11ec-8428-6f32e20bbaf1.html" aria-label="Scoppe: How SC gets stuck with bad laws most legislators had no interest in passing" target="_blank"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" alt="Scoppe: How SC gets stuck with bad laws most legislators had no interest in passing" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=150,113 150w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=200,150 200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=225,169 225w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=400,300 400w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=540,405 540w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=640,480 640w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=750,563 750w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=990,743 990w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=1035,777 1035w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=1200,900 1200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=1333,1000 1333w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=1476,1107 1476w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/3a/63ac2b4e-06e6-11ec-8d2c-972547397c59/61285bf707335.image.jpg?resize=1662,1247 2008w" title="Scoppe: How SC gets stuck with bad laws most legislators had no interest in passing" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.postandcourier.comdata:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg=="> </a> </div> </figure></div> </div> <div><div> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/opinion/commentary" target="_blank">Commentary</a> </div> </div> <div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em"> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/opinion/commentary/scoppe-how-sc-gets-stuck-with-bad-laws-most-legislators-had-no-interest-in-passing/article_1689ed02-06c7-11ec-8428-6f32e20bbaf1.html" aria-label="Scoppe: How SC gets stuck with bad laws most legislators had no interest in passing" target="_blank"> Scoppe: How SC gets stuck with bad laws most legislators had no interest in passing</a></h3></div> <div> <ul class="list-inline"><li class="card-byline text-muted"><span id="author-5dcc251c-467c-11e9-8dea-97c3be6f6582-asset-1689ed02-06c7-11ec-8428-6f32e20bbaf1" class="tnt-byline asset-byline">By Cindi Ross Scoppe </span> </li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </article></div><p>We got here because some politicians politicized a public health crisis to win support from low-information voters. Some of them call themselves “patriots” but they’re the exact opposite. They’ve proven they won’t inconvenience themselves slightly for this country.</p><p>So now members of this very loud minority are threatening the economy and their neighbors. Their victims are not only people who succumb to COVID, but the guy who becomes ill but can’t get prompt medical attention because the hospitals are full.</p><p>And it could get worse. MUSC sees no plateau on the horizon for the delta variant — the curve is going straight up. And there’s no telling whether school districts can protect kids, because the Supreme Court could go either way.</p><div><article id="card-summary-d4f565cc-0682-11ec-bc40-a736032760cb" class="tnt-asset-type-article clearfix card summary has-image letterbox-style-default tnt-section-opinion tnt-sub-section-editorials"> <div><div> <div data-aspect=""><figure> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-sc-businesses-can-protect-bottom-line-end-covid-wars-by-requiring-vaccinations/article_d4f565cc-0682-11ec-bc40-a736032760cb.html" aria-label="Editorial: SC businesses can protect bottom line, end COVID wars by requiring vaccinations" target="_blank"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" alt="Editorial: SC businesses can protect bottom line, end COVID wars by requiring vaccinations" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=200,133 200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=225,150 225w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=400,266 400w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=540,360 540w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=640,426 640w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=750,500 750w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=990,659 990w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=1035,689 1035w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=1200,799 1200w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=1333,888 1333w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=1476,983 1476w, https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/postandcourier.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/fd/2fd6d18c-0689-11ec-a7e2-cbd7aea15b1e/5f3e891add2ba.image.jpg?resize=1764,1175 2008w" title="Editorial: SC businesses can protect bottom line, end COVID wars by requiring vaccinations" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.postandcourier.comdata:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAQAAAADCAQAAAAe/WZNAAAAEElEQVR42mM8U88ABowYDABAxQPltt5zqAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg=="> </a> </div> </figure></div> </div> <div><div> <div> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/opinion/editorials" target="_blank">Editorials</a> </div> </div> <div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em"> <a href="www.postandcourier.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-sc-businesses-can-protect-bottom-line-end-covid-wars-by-requiring-vaccinations/article_d4f565cc-0682-11ec-bc40-a736032760cb.html" aria-label="Editorial: SC businesses can protect bottom line, end COVID wars by requiring vaccinations" target="_blank"> Editorial: SC businesses can protect bottom line, end COVID wars by requiring vaccinations</a></h3></div> <div> <ul class="list-inline"><li class="card-byline text-muted"><span class="tnt-byline">BY THE EDITORIAL STAFF</span></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </article></div><p>The court made it clear last week that its justices aren’t medical professionals. On Friday, it revised rules on trial operations, specifically the use of Zoom for hearings. The court noted that “the number of COVID-19 infections has decreased significantly from its peak.”</p><p>Uh, that was last true around July 1. The number of cases South Carolina is seeing per day now rivals the peak of the winter surge.</p><p>Yes, the courts are behind — as a bunch of mad cops will tell you. Ninth Circuit Solicitor Scarlett Wilson says the claims of a decreased threat from the virus left members of the Bar scratching their heads. She notes that fortunately many protections remain in place, although she would’ve preferred more.</p><p>“The court has rightly recognized that we simply cannot allow a public health crisis to exacerbate a public safety crisis,” Wilson says. “While it is true that the most serious risks of the coronavirus have subsided with vaccination, we do not know who within the criminal justice system is vaccinated and who is not. And the fact that so many remain unvaccinated is affecting us all in various ways.”</p><p>That’s absolutely right. The people complaining the most about mitigation are forcing these issues.</p><p>The Supreme Court could solve some of this, and its own courtroom problems. It should simply outlaw politicians posing as physicians.</p> </div>
Published: 4 months ago
<article class="Story"><div><div><a href="www.thedailybeast.comfranchise/disinformation" target="_blank"><div>Disinformation<img src="data:image/svg xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHdpZHRoPSIyNiIgaGVpZ2h0PSIyNiIgdmlld0JveD0iMCAwIDI2IDI2Ij4KICA8ZGVmcy8 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CiAgPGcgaWQ9Ikdyb3VwXzI3MzIiIGRhdGEtbmFtZT0iR3JvdXAgMjczMiIgdHJhbnNmb3JtPSJ0cmFuc2xhdGUoLTI0IC0xMikiPgogICAgPGcgaWQ9Ikdyb3VwXzI3MTgiIGRhdGEtbmFtZT0iR3JvdXAgMjcxOCIgdHJhbnNmb3JtPSJ0cmFuc2xhdGUoMjQgMTIpIj4KICAgICAgPHBhdGgKICAgICAgICBpZD0iUGF0aF82MzIiCiAgICAgICAgZD0iTTE1IDJhMTMgMTMgMCAxIDAgMTMgMTNBMTMgMTMgMCAwIDAgMTUgMnptMCAyNC4xNDNBMTEuMTQzIDExLjE0MyAwIDEgMSAyNi4xNDMgMTUgMTEuMTU1IDExLjE1NSAwIDAgMSAxNSAyNi4xNDN6IgogICAgICAgIGNsYXNzPSJjbHMtMSIKICAgICAgICBkYXRhLW5hbWU9IlBhdGggNjMyIgogICAgICAgIHRyYW5zZm9ybT0idHJhbnNsYXRlKC0yIC0yKSIKICAgICAgLz4KICAgICAgPGcgaWQ9InJvdW5kLWFycm93X2JhY2stMjRweCIgdHJhbnNmb3JtPSJ0cmFuc2xhdGUoMiAyKSI CiAgICAgICAgPHBhdGggaWQ9IlBhdGhfNjM1IiBkPSJNMCAwaDIydjIySDB6IiBkYXRhLW5hbWU9IlBhdGggNjM1IiBmaWxsPSJub25lIi8 CiAgICAgICAgPHBhdGgKICAgICAgICAgIGlkPSJQYXRoXzYzNiIKICAgICAgICAgIGQ9Ik0xNy4xMjggMTAuMTMxSDcuMzkybDQuMjU0LTQuMjM3YS44Ny44NyAwIDAgMC0xLjIyOS0xLjIzM2wtNS43NDUgNS43MjJhLjg2Mi44NjIgMCAwIDAgMCAxLjIyNGw1Ljc0NCA1LjcyMWEuODY3Ljg2NyAwIDEgMCAxLjIzLTEuMjI4bC00LjI1NC00LjIzMmg5LjczNmEuODY4Ljg2OCAwIDEgMCAwLTEuNzM2eiIKICAgICAgICAgIGNsYXNzPSJjbHMtMSIKICAgICAgICAgIGRhdGEtbmFtZT0iUGF0aCA2MzYiCiAgICAgICAgLz4KICAgICAgPC9nPgogICAgPC9nPgogIDwvZz4KPC9zdmc "></div></a></div><h1 style="font-size:1.2em">Fox News’ Favorite Anti-Vaxxer Guests Are at War</h1><div><div>‘FRIENDLY FIRE’</div></div><p class="StoryDescription">A tense on-air exchange has turned into an all-out war of words between the two vaccine skeptic Fox News guests. </p><div><div><div><div itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><div><a href="www.thedailybeast.com/author/justin-rohrlich" target="_blank"><h4 class="Byline__name StandardHeader__byline-name" itemprop="name">Justin Rohrlich</h4></a><a href="www.thedailybeast.com/author/justin-rohrlich" target="_blank"><p class="Byline__job-title StandardHeader__byline-job-title" itemprop="jobTitle">Reporter</p></a></div></div><span class="Byline__separator StandardHeader__byline-separator"></span><div itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><div><a href="www.thedailybeast.com/author/zachary-petrizzo" target="_blank"><h4 class="Byline__name StandardHeader__byline-name" itemprop="name">Zachary Petrizzo</h4></a><a href="www.thedailybeast.com/author/zachary-petrizzo" target="_blank"><p class="Byline__job-title StandardHeader__byline-job-title" itemprop="jobTitle">Media Reporter</p></a></div></div><span class="Byline__separator StandardHeader__byline-separator"></span></div><div><time class="PublicationTime__pub-time StandardHeader__publication-time-pubtime" datetime="2022-01-15T17:30:25-05:00"><span class="PublicationTime__date-label">Published </span><span class="PublicationTime__date">Jan. 15, 2022<!-- --> </span><span class="PublicationTime__time">5:30PM ET<!-- --> </span></time></div></div></div><section class="Hero"><div><div><span class="VideoHero__title"></span><span class="VideoHero__caption"></span><div><div>Fox News</div></div></div></div></section></div><div><article class="Body"><div><div><p>A fairly standard late-night Fox News cable segment featuring <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-quietly-gives-fox-nation-show-to-alex-berenson-coronavirus-truther-called-covid-contrarian" target="_blank">self-described “COVID Contrarian”</a> Alex Berenson and infamous anti-vaxxer Robert Malone skidded off the tracks after the former accused the latter of overplaying his hand.</p><p>And Malone—whose recent appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast led to widespread outrage from the medical community—is extremely perturbed by the “totally unprovoked” attack, he told The Daily Beast on Saturday afternoon.</p><p>The tense on-air exchange spilled over with claims made by Malone that Berenson, who has become a regular on Tucker Carlson’s primetime show amid the pandemic, serves as “controlled opposition.”</p><p>“Listen, I don’t think Dr. Malone does himself or those of us who are trying to raise questions about the vaccines any favors, when he refers to himself as the inventor of the mRNA technology,” argued Berenson. “That is clearly a large exaggeration. And I don’t think he does us any favors, when he says that ivermectin has been proven to work. I think that is a huge overstatement of the case.”</p><div> </div><p>“This is not ‘get the guest’ hour,” Fox News host <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-host-wildly-claims-car-accidents-are-counted-as-covid-deaths" target="_blank">Raymond Arroyo</a> interjected.</p><p>Malone, a virologist and immunologist by profession who has been criticized for spreading vaccine misinformation, did indeed help develop early iterations of the mRNA platform in the late 1980s and early 90s, but was not involved in the development of the COVID-19 vaccines being used today. During the initial stages of the pandemic, Malone <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-ap-top-news-understanding-the-outbreak-technology-clinical-trials-13e13ba67fc1fe8f9c744e294f3e54d6" target="_blank">studied the use of Pepcid</a>, the over-the-counter heartburn reliever, as a possible treatment for COVID, with the Trump administration’s blessing. (It didn’t work.)</p><p>Responding to Berenson, Malone appeared shocked by the criticism.</p><p>“That’s a low blow,” Malone fired back, while claiming he was in fact the inventor of mRNA technology. He went on to argue in favor of using the unproven anti-parasitic drug ivermectin to fight COVID. “Both of your statements are going to fail with the test of time, but that’s not this discussion.”</p><p>In a subsequent Substack <a href="https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/bushwhacked-by-alex-berenson-on-fox" target="_blank">post</a>, Malone let Berenson have it.</p><p>“Alex Berenson goes on Fox News and directly calls me a liar to my face and says I didn’t invent RNA vaccines,” he wrote. “Unprofessional, rude and an a**hole to boot. But beyond that, I think we can all assume CONTROLLED OPPOSITION.”</p><p>That very label didn't sit well with Berenson, who told The Daily Beast, “Controlled opposition is a phrase that reveals much more about the speaker than the intended target.”</p><p>“My only allegiance is to the truth, my only customers are my readers,” he continued, “and the only people who control me are my kids.”</p><p>Reached by The Daily Beast by phone while in the Andalusian Mountains of Spain, where he said he was shooting a documentary with a Dutch film crew, Malone didn't hold back on Berenson.</p><p>The Fox News segment was “totally unprovoked,” said Malone, whose wife, Jill, could be heard in the background yelling out suggestions for details she thought important for Malone to share.</p><p>“I was shocked,” said Malone, who was recently called a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jan/14/spotify-joe-rogan-podcast-open-letter" target="_blank">menace to public health</a>” by a group of 270 doctors. “And so was the host [Raymond Arroyo] of Fox. Fox apologized to me for it. It was out of the blue. I have no idea what brought it on. I’ve never had any interaction with the guy, I don’t know him, I’ve never met him, I have had no correspondence with him. What would provoke him to do that, I can only speculate. And I don’t want to speculate.”</p><p>Fox News didn’t return The Daily Beast’s Saturday afternoon request for comment.</p><p>Calling Berenson’s appearance “a total bushwhack job,” Malone told The Daily Beast that noted anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/anti-vaxxer-naomi-wolf-joins-donald-trumps-doomed-tech-suit" target="_blank">Naomi Wolf</a> called him after the segment and said he “shouldn’t be bothered because [Berenson] called her crazy once in a public forum.”</p><p>“We’ve been subjected to censorship all the way through this,” said Malone. “But this friendly fire from Alex—this was fragging, to use a military term. And I have no idea why.”</p><p>Being “defrocked” of his Twitter and LinkedIn accounts is still very much a point of contention for Malone, who said he was invited to appear on the Fox News segment “because of that history of being deplatformed, a history that we both share,” referring to Berenson’s permanent suspension from the platform for repeatedly sharing vaccine misinformation with his 100K followers.</p><p>“That was the purpose of the hit, it was supposed to be focused on the media blitz about the 280 people that have signed this petition to have Spotify take off the Rogan show,” said Malone. “It was supposed to be about censorship, and for Berenson to come on and just directly attack me is bizarre.”</p><div> </div><p>Malone sees himself as “deeply a scientist and a physician,” he maintained, insisting, “I don't put stuff out that isn’t well-grounded in fact.”</p><p>However, most objective observers would wholeheartedly disagree.</p><p>“He’s a legitimate scientist, or at least was until he started to make these false claims,” Dr. Paul Offit, chair of vaccinology at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jan/06/who-robert-malone-joe-rogans-guest-was-vaccine-sci/" target="_blank">told PolitiFact</a>.</p><p>Malone earned a medical degree from Northwestern University in 1991, and is licensed in Maryland as an immunologist, according to the fact-checking site.</p><p>In August of 2021, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/robert-malone-vaccine-inventor-vaccine-skeptic/619734/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a> said Malone’s “star” was within the “alternate media universe” that includes the likes of Steve Bannon.</p><p>“He started popping up on podcasts and cable news shows a few months ago, presented as a scientific expert, arguing that the approval process for the vaccines had been unwisely rushed,” according to the piece. “He told Tucker Carlson that the public doesn’t have enough information to decide whether to get vaccinated. He told Glenn Beck that offering incentives for taking vaccines is unethical. He told Del Bigtree, an anti-vaccine activist who opposes common childhood inoculations, that there hadn’t been sufficient research on how the vaccines might affect women’s reproductive systems. On show after show, Malone, who has quickly amassed more than 200,000 Twitter followers, casts doubt on the safety of the vaccines while decrying what he sees as attempts to censor dissent.”</p><p>On Saturday, Malone told The Daily Beast that his media coverage has been unmerciful, criticizing the reports as “yellow journalism and character assassination,” and “these fact-checkers who are opinion-enforcers.”</p><p>“Anything you say gets weaponized,” he went on. “So it's left me a little bit jaded about modern journalism. I hate to always focus on me, I'd much rather that people focus on the ideas rather than these character assassination hits.”</p><p>When asked about the lack of widespread adverse events occurring in vaccinated people, Malone pointed to his Substack, saying he penned a missive “about my own adverse events,” quickly pivoting to a supposed “issue about bad vaccine batches [that] is about to be brought to fore.”</p><p>On Jan. 23, Malone is <a href="https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/16-000-scientists-stand-with-dr-robert-malone-mrna-architect/article_d6dfc974-7589-11ec-9840-1f36377b98f6.html" target="_blank">set to appear at an anti-vaccine protest</a> in Washington, D.C. Other speakers <a href="https://defeatthemandatesdc.com/speakers/" target="_blank">will include a slew of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists</a> such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Del Bigtree, and erstwhile Fox News personality Lara Logan.</p><div> </div></div></div></article></div></article>
Published: 3 days ago
<article> <header class="l-article-header"> <div> <span class="c-breadcrumbs"> <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/" target="_blank">Home</a> <a href="www.rollingstone.com/culture/" target="_blank">Culture</a> <a href="www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/" target="_blank">Culture News</a> </span><!-- .c-breadcrumbs --> </div><!-- .l-article-header__block--breadcrumbs --> <time class="l-article-header__block l-article-header__block--time t-semibold t-semibold--upper" datetime="2022-01-12T17:56:32 00:00" itemprop="datePublished"> January 12, 2022 12:56PM ET </time><!-- .l-article-header__block--time --> <div> <div id="adm-article-header-logo"> <div data-device="Desktop" data-width="140"> <div> <div id="gpt-rslogo-140-article-dsk-tab-uid5" data-is-adhesion-ad=""> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> </div><!-- .c-badge--sponsored --> <h1 style="font-size:1.2em"> ‘A Menace to Public Health’: Doctors Demand Spotify Puts an End to Covid Lies on ‘Joe Rogan Experience’ </h1><!-- .l-article-header__row--title --> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em"> <p>Unlike many platforms, Spotify doesn’t have a clear policy prohibiting misinformation. 270 physicians and scientists are hoping to change that </p> </h2><!-- .l-article-header__row--lead --> <div> <div> <div> <em class="c-byline__by">By</em> <div> <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/author/ej-dickson/" target="_blank"> EJ Dickson </a> <div> <div> <div> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" data-src="https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ej-dickson.jpg?w=94&crop=1:1" data-srcset="https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ej-dickson.jpg?w=94&crop=1:1 1x, https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ej-dickson.jpg?w=188&crop=1:1 2x" alt="EJ Dickson" title="EJ Dickson" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.rollingstone.comdata:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw=="> </div> <div> <h4 class="c-author__heading t-bold"> <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/author/ej-dickson/" target="_blank"> EJ Dickson </a> </h4> <p class="c-author__role">Reporter</p> </div> <h4 class="c-author__heading t-bold">EJ Dickson's Most Recent Stories</h4> <ul class="c-author__posts t-semibold"> <li class="c-author__post"> <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/twee-tiktok-dont-let-this-flop-podcast-1285006/" target="_blank"> We Are Simply Dreading the Return of Twee on TikTok </a> </li> <li class="c-author__post"> <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-features/yellowjackets-melanie-lynskey-interview-1284100/" target="_blank"> Melanie Lynskey Is Mad as Hell and Not Going to Take It Anymore. 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900w, https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-rogan.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=1200 1200w" title="Joe Rogan" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" data-src="https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-rogan.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=450" alt="Joe Rogan" data-srcset="https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-rogan.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=450 450w, https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-rogan.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=600 600w, https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-rogan.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=900 900w, https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/joe-rogan.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=1200 1200w" title="Joe Rogan" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="www.rollingstone.comdata:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw=="> </div><!-- .c-crop --> </div> <div> <p class="c-picture__title t-semibold"> Joe Rogan </p> <p class="c-picture__source t-semibold"> Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images </p> </div><!-- .c-picture__caption --> </figure><!-- .c-picture --> <div> <div> <div><p><span style="font-weight: 400">As an infectious disease epidemiologist and research fellow at Boston’s Children’s Hospital who debunks health misinformation on Instagram —where she has more than 380,000 followers — <a href="https://www.instagram.com/jessicamalatyrivera/?hl=en" target="_blank" target="_blank">Jessica Malaty Rivera </a>regularly receives tips from her followers about viral content to debunk. A few weeks ago, her followers started sending her a link to an episode of </span>the <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/joe-rogan/" id="auto-tag_joe-rogan" data-tag="joe-rogan" target="_blank">Joe Rogan</a> Experience, the most popular podcast in the world. The episode was an interview with Dr. Robert Malone, a virologist who touts himself as one of the architects of mRNA technology.</p> <p>Rivera was familiar with Rogan, as well as Malone. She knew that Malone had been banned from Twitter for promoting <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/covid/" id="auto-tag_covid" data-tag="covid" target="_blank">Covid</a>-19 misinformation, and that he had been making the rounds in conservative media circles undermining the efficacy of the vaccine. When she watched the interview, she was horrified to see that he<span style="font-weight: 400"> espoused various conspiratorial and baseless beliefs, from the idea that “mass formation psychosis” is responsible for people believing in the efficacy of vaccines; to the claim popular among anti-vaxxers that hospitals are financially incentivized to falsely diagnose <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/covid-19/" id="auto-tag_covid-19" data-tag="covid-19" target="_blank">Covid-19</a> deaths. </span><span style="font-weight: 400">The episode featuring Malone went viral, and was shared widely in right-wing media circles as well as on Facebook, where the link on <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/spotify/" id="auto-tag_spotify" data-tag="spotify" target="_blank">Spotify</a> has been <a href="https://apps.crowdtangle.com/search?q=https://open.spotify.com/episode/3SCsueX2bZdbEzRtKOCEyT&platform=facebook&sortBy=score&sortOrder=desc" target="_blank" target="_blank">shared</a> nearly 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spoke to some colleagues and we said something has to be done at this point,” she says. </span></p> <p>Rivera is one of 270 doctors, physicians, and science educators who signed an <a href="https://spotifyopenletter.wordpress.com/2022/01/10/an-open-letter-to-spotify/" target="_blank" target="_blank">open letter calling on Spotify</a>, which obtained exclusively streaming rights to the Joe Rogan Experience in a r<a href="https://www.theverge.com/22632213/joe-rogan-experience-spotify-exclusive-audience-reach" target="_blank" target="_blank">eported $100 million deal</a>, to take action against misinformation on the platform, such as that contained in the interview with Malone. “With an estimated 11 million listeners per episode, JRE, which is hosted exclusively on Spotify, is the world’s largest podcast and has tremendous influence,” the letter reads. “Spotify has a responsibility to mitigate the spread of misinformation on its platform, though the company presently has no misinformation policy.”</p> <p>The letter was initially appended with a lengthy fact-check of all of the claims presented in Malone’s interview with Rogan, from the “mass formation psychosis” supposition to Malone’s claim that the Biden administration is suppressing evidence supporting the efficacy of ivermectin as a Covid-19 treatment. “P<span style="font-weight: 400">eople who don’t have the scientific or medical background to recognize the things he’s saying are not true and are unable to distinguish fact from fiction are going to believe what [Malone is] saying, and this is the biggest podcast in the world. And that’s terrifying,” says Dr. Ben Rein, a neuroscientist at Stanford University who co-authored the letter with Rivera and other doctors and educators. </span></p> <p>The Malone segment is far from the first time Rogan has been accused of platforming misinformation on his podcast. In an April 23, 2021 <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/27/22406315/joe-rogan-vaccine-spotify-podcast-covid-19" target="_blank" target="_blank">episode</a>, for instance, Rogan actively discouraged young people from getting the vaccine, saying in a conversation with comedian Dave Smith, “if you’re like 21 years old, and you say to me, ‘Should I get vaccinated?’ I’ll go no.'”</p> <p>Rogan has also promoted taking ivermectin to treat Covid-19 symptoms, despite the fact that there is limited evidence to support ivermectin’s efficacy as a Covid-19 treatment and that ingesting it can lead to such <a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/why-you-should-not-use-ivermectin-treat-or-prevent-covid-19" target="_blank" target="_blank">side effects</a> as dizziness and uncontrolled vomiting. “This doctor was saying ivermectin is 99 percent effective intreating Covid, but you don’t hear about it because you can’t fund vaccines when it’s an effective treatment,” he said on the same April episode of his podcast, as <em>Rolling Stone </em>previously <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/27/22406315/joe-rogan-vaccine-spotify-podcast-covid-19" target="_blank" target="_blank">reported</a>. “I don’t know if this guy is right or wrong. I’m just asking questions.” Rogan has also platformed many discredited physicians and academics who have spoken out against the vaccine, such as Dr. Peter McCullough, a <a href="https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/joe-rogan-interview-with-peter-mccullough-contains-multiple-false-and-unsubstantiated-claims-about-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-vaccines/" target="_blank" target="_blank">cardiologist</a> who inaccurately claimed that COVID-19 vaccines are “experimental” and that the pandemic was “planned.”</p> <p> <div id="adm-inline-article-ad-2"> <div data-device="Desktop" data-width="301"> <div> <div id="gpt-dsk-tab-article-inbody2-uid1" data-is-adhesion-ad=""> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="https://twitter.com/drkatepi" target="_blank" target="_blank">Katrine Wallace</a>, PhD, an </span><span style="font-weight: 400">epidemiologist at University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health, says that she considers Rogan “a menace to public health” for continuously platforming anti-vaccine ideology to his enormous audience. </span><span style="font-weight: 400">“Having things like this on the Joe Rogan podcast gives a platform to these people and makes it a false balance. This is what really bothers me,” she tells <em>Rolling Stone.</em> “These are fringe ideas not backed in science, and having it on a huge platform makes it seem there are two sides to this issue. And there are really not. The overwhelming evidence is the vaccine works, and it is safe.” </span></p> <p>Although many have criticized Spotify for hosting Rogan on its platform, the open letter to Spotify does not request that Rogan’s show be taken off Spotify, nor does it demand that Spotify remove the Malone episode in particular. Rather, it is calling on Spotify to develop a comprehensive policy prohibiting misinformation. “A<span style="font-weight: 400">ny podcast that platforms dangerous people, people spreading dangerous ideas and misinformation, should  not be allowed to go unchecked on the Spotify platform,” says Abbie Richards, a researcher specializing in misinformation. Richards gave Rein the idea of penning an open letter to Spotify when he approached her with his concerns over the Malone episode. “We’re not focused on something as small as just one episode or Rogan. They need to implement a policy and carry it out.”</span></p> <p>Though Spotify does not appear to have a clear policy regarding misinformation in its terms of service, in the past the platform has removed episodes containing misinformation regarding vaccines. “Spotify prohibits content on the platform which promotes dangerous false, deceptive, or misleading content about Covid-19 that may cause offline harm and/or pose a direct threat to public health. When content that violates this standard is identified it is removed from the platform,” it said in a <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/27/22406315/joe-rogan-vaccine-spotify-podcast-covid-19" target="_blank" target="_blank">statement</a> to the Verge last April. But it has been reluctant to take action against Rogan’s podcast, which reaches an estimated 11 million people per episode; nor does it include a warning label regarding potential misinformation on any podcast episodes. Spotify did not immediately return <em>Rolling Stone</em>‘s requests for comment.</p> <p> <div id="adm-inline-article-ad-x-9"> <div data-device="Desktop" data-width="301"> <div> <div id="gpt-dsk-tab-inbodyX-uid2" data-is-adhesion-ad=""> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p>Considering the size of Rogan’s audience, as well as the staggering reported value of his contract with the platform, not everyone involved with the open letter is convinced that Spotify will ever be willing to take a stand on his content. Yet Rivera believes Spotify has an enormous ethical obligation to do so. “<span style="font-weight: 400">Considering their role in society is disseminating content, there is a responsibility in a global public health emergency to not exacerbate the problem,” she says. “We have an infodemic going on that </span><span style="font-weight: 400">is prolonging the pandemic and it is causing people to make bad choices and actually die. These are preventable illnesses that folks like Joe Rogan and Dr. Robert Malone are directly responsible for.”</span></p> </div> </div><!-- .c-content --> <footer> <div> <p class="t-semibold"> In This Article: <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/coronavirus/" title="coronavirus" target="_blank">coronavirus</a>, <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/covid/" title="Covid" target="_blank">Covid</a>, <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/covid-19/" title="covid-19" target="_blank">covid-19</a>, <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/joe-rogan/" title="Joe Rogan" target="_blank">Joe Rogan</a>, <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/podcast/" title="Podcasts" target="_blank">Podcasts</a>, <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/t/spotify/" title="Spotify" target="_blank">Spotify</a> </p> </div><!-- .c-tags --> <div> <div> <div> <p class="t-semibold"> Want more Rolling Stone? <a href="https://pages.email.rollingstone.com/newsletters/" target="_blank">Sign up for our newsletter.</a> </p> </div> </div> </div><!-- .c-post-actions --> </footer> </div><!-- .l-article-content --> </article>
Published: 7 days ago
After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.
<article class="node-405965 node node-article view-mode-full clearfix" about="/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/405965-pollster-rasmussen-research-has-a-pro-gop-bias" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document"> <div> <div><div><div property="content:encoded"><p>Rasmussen Reports uses research techniques that make its polls favor Republicans, Ipsos Public Affairs research director Mallory Newall said Monday during an appearance on “What America’s Thinking,” Hill.TV’s new show about public opinion research. </p><p>Newall singled out Rasmussen's practice of adjusting results by party identification in arguing that the pollster, which has been touted by <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople"><a data-nid="261287" href="thehill.com/people/donald-trump" target="_blank">President Trump</a><span class="rollover-people-block" id="rollover-people-261287"><span class="rollover-block"><span><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/trumpdonald_070117getty.jpg?itok=6xe4YR_0" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/trumpdonald_070117getty.jpg?itok=6xe4YR_0"><a href="thehill.com/people/donald-trump" target="_blank">Donald Trump</a><a href="thehill.com/homenews/senate/590074-sanders-calls-out-manchin-sinema-ahead-of-filibuster-showdown" target="_blank">Sanders calls out Manchin, Sinema ahead of filibuster showdown</a> <a href="thehill.com/homenews/media/590054-laura-ingraham-not-saying-if-shed-support-trump-in-2024" target="_blank">Laura Ingraham 'not saying' if she'd support Trump in 2024</a> <a href="thehill.com/homenews/1230-report/590025-the-hills-1230-report-novak-djokovic-may-not-compete-in-french-open-over-vaccine-requirement" target="_blank">The Hill's 12:30 Report: Djokovic may not compete in French Open over vaccine requirement</a> <a href="thehill.com/people/donald-trump" target="_blank">MORE<span></span></a></span></span></span></span> and often has shown him with higher approval ratings than in other polls, favors the GOP.</p><p>“I think they tend to be more along the partisan angle, leaning toward the Republicans ... the weight that they put toward partisan self-identification,” Newall said, referring to Rasmussen’s long-standing practice of adjusting its results by party identification.</p><p>In response, a representative from Rasmussen in an e-mail to The Hill noted that it correctly predicted the margin in the popular vote in the 2016 presidential race.</p><p>“That’s a complaint we often hear from Democratic groups not happy with our polling,” Fran Coombs, Rasmussen’s managing editor, said of Newall’s criticism.</p><p>“Obviously we’re quite comfortable with our partisan breakdown. Let me remind Ipsos that we got the 2016 presidential race right,” Coombs continued. “The vast majority of pollsters did not.”</p><p>In its final poll of the 2016 race between Trump and Democrat <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople"><a data-nid="188224" href="thehill.com/people/hillary-clinton" target="_blank">Hillary Clinton</a><span class="rollover-people-block" id="rollover-people-188224"><span class="rollover-block"><span><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/clintonhillary_101916gn_lead.jpg?itok=PL8SPZsD" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/clintonhillary_101916gn_lead.jpg?itok=PL8SPZsD"><a href="thehill.com/people/hillary-clinton" target="_blank">Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton</a><a href="thehill.com/homenews/morning-report/589985-the-hills-morning-report" target="_blank">The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Democrats see victory in a voting rights defeat</a> <a href="thehill.com/homenews/campaign/589824-left-laughs-off-floated-changes-to-2024-ticket" target="_blank">Left laughs off floated changes to 2024 ticket</a> <a href="thehill.com/opinion/white-house/589901-a-year-into-his-presidency-biden-is-polling-at-an-all-time-low" target="_blank">A year into his presidency, Biden is polling at an all-time low </a> <a href="thehill.com/people/hillary-clinton" target="_blank">MORE<span></span></a></span></span></span></span>, Rasmussen indicated that Trump would <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov4" target="_blank">lose the national popular vote by two points</a>. In the official government tally, he lost by 2.1 percent.</p><p>The final presidential survey that Ipsos conducted in 2016 <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_Daily_11.07_.16_.pdf" target="_blank">indicated a 3-point Trump loss</a>.</p><p>During the <a href="https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html" target="_blank">2012 presidential race</a>, Rasmussen said that 49 percent of its respondents supported GOP candidate <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople"><a data-nid="366707" href="thehill.com/people/willard-mitt-romney" target="_blank">Mitt Romney</a><span class="rollover-people-block" id="rollover-people-366707"><span class="rollover-block"><span><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/romneymitt_111916getty_lead.jpg?itok=6qc8JVJG" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/romneymitt_111916getty_lead.jpg?itok=6qc8JVJG"><a href="thehill.com/people/willard-mitt-romney" target="_blank">Willard (Mitt) Mitt Romney</a><a href="thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/589955-democrats-make-voting-rights-push-ahead-of-senate-consideration-of" target="_blank">​​Democrats make voting rights push ahead of Senate consideration </a> <a href="thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/589950-sunday-shows-voting-rights-legislation-dominates" target="_blank">Sunday shows - Voting rights legislation dominates</a> <a href="thehill.com/homenews/house/589948-clyburn-says-he-wholeheartedly-endorses-bidens-voting-rights-remarks" target="_blank">Clyburn says he 'wholeheartedly' endorses Biden's voting rights remarks</a> <a href="thehill.com/people/willard-mitt-romney" target="_blank">MORE<span></span></a></span></span></span></span> compared to 48 percent who backed then-president <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople"><a data-nid="188226" href="thehill.com/people/barack-obama" target="_blank">Barack Obama</a><span class="rollover-people-block" id="rollover-people-188226"><span class="rollover-block"><span><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/blogs/obama2_0.jpg?itok=cVqdIpdv" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/thumb_100/public/blogs/obama2_0.jpg?itok=cVqdIpdv"><a href="thehill.com/people/barack-obama" target="_blank">Barack Hussein Obama</a><a href="thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/590036-barack-obama-wishes-a-happy-58th-birthday-to-best-friend" target="_blank">Barack Obama wishes a happy 58th birthday to 'best friend' Michelle</a> <a href="thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/589984-voting-rights-is-a-constitutional-right-failure-is-not-an-option" target="_blank">Voting rights is a constitutional right: Failure is not an option</a> <a href="thehill.com/homenews/campaign/589649-florida-looms-large-in-republican-2024-primary" target="_blank">Florida looms large in Republican 2024 primary</a> <a href="thehill.com/people/barack-obama" target="_blank">MORE<span></span></a></span></span></span></span>. The Democrat ended up winning the popular vote, 51 percent to 47 percent.</p><p>Since he was inaugurated, Trump has touted Rasmussen’s numbers repeatedly, most recently <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/381373-trump-touts-rasmussen-poll-results-higher-than-cheatin-obama" target="_blank">in an April tweet</a>.</p><p>“Thank you to Rasmussen for the honest polling. Just hit 50%, which is higher than Cheatin’ Obama at the same time in his Administration,” the president wrote.</p><p>Asked why he believed Rasmussen’s numbers are sometimes more favorable to Republicans compared to surveys done by other firms, Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, pointed to Rasmussen’s use of a “likely voter” screen in its methods, something that most polling operations refrain from doing until closer to election dates.</p><p>“Most polls use national adults or registered voters and they use ‘likely voters’ which screens it down,” Newport said on Hill.TV. “That skews Republican because Republicans are more likely to vote than not.”</p><p>Historically speaking, demographic groups that tend to favor Democrats in recent elections have tended not to vote as often as groups that lean Republican.</p><p>“Likely voters are a small subset of registered voters. Many people in this country, particularly in mid-term elections or special elections, don’t vote,” Newall said.</p><p>In an <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/" target="_blank">analysis released last year</a>, the Pew Research Center found that less than half of Hispanic- and Asian-Americans who were eligible to vote cast a ballot in the 2016 general election. Black turnout also declined as well to 60 percent of eligible voters. Democrats have fared better than Republicans among all three groups.</p><p>Sixty-five percent of eligible white Americans voted that year, according to Pew. People of European ancestry were the only racial group that Trump won, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html" target="_blank">according to exit polls</a>.</p><p>Determining who is going to vote this November and later in 2020 is the most difficult question pollsters face, Newall said.</p><p>“I think that’s the key takeaway,” she told host Joe Concha. “How do you get the ‘correct’ likely voter model and if polls are a snapshot in time, how do you build your model to predict what’s going to happen in November on Election Day?”</p><p>While adjusting results by party identification is becoming increasingly common, it is still contentious in the polling business since partisan identity is not a fixed characteristic like race or sex. Hill.TV’s American Barometer polls conducted by HarrisX sometimes utilize party affiliation to correct sampling errors. A <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/2018/01/26/reducing-bias-on-benchmarks/#for-partisan-measures-adding-political-variables-to-weighting-adjustment-can-make-online-opt-in-estimates-more-republican" target="_blank">research paper released in January by the Pew Research Center</a> found that Democrats were more likely to respond to online polls than telephone-based ones but declined to endorse or condemn partisan weighting in general.</p><p>On Thursday, Rasmussen <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/polls_are_just_more_media_propaganda" target="_blank">posted an essay on its site</a> which denounced public opinion surveys in its Political Commentary section which frequently features right-leaning voices.</p><p>“Polls are just more media propaganda,” the column, written by Denver-based physician Brian C. Joondeph was headlined.</p><p>“Remember that more than 90 percent of D.C. journalists vote Democratic, with an even higher number giving to Democrats or liberal-leaning political action committees,” Joondeph wrote. “These are the people commissioning the polls and interpreting the results for us. Take it all with a big grain of salt.”</p><p>—Matthew Sheffield</p></div></div></div> </div> </article>
Published: 3 years ago
Crime    
Crime    
 
German Lopez
The effects are felt unequally across the U.S.
Published on the web: yesterday
<div> <p id="OEqXqI">Angela Hernandez-Sutton, 44, has lived on the same block in West Garfield Park nearly her entire life, but it wasn’t until this past summer that she stopped sitting out on her front porch.</p> <p id="J62v3V">As a child, she played in the spray from a fire hydrant with neighbors’ kids during the summer. In her teens, she ran the streets with neighborhood girls who were regarded as “tough.”</p> <p id="bSVduU">As a mom, she watched her own children like a hawk, until they grew up and moved away, and these days she looks out for her 88-year-old father in the home she grew up in, on West Lexington Avenue east of Pulaski Road.</p> <p id="skO9s9">But one afternoon this summer she raced to shove her dad out of harm’s way as a carload of men sprayed the block with gunfire. Her own car was strafed with bullets that, as far as she knows, were intended for a group of young men on the sidewalk a few houses down.</p> <p id="uwO1uP">That’s when Hernandez-Sutton stopped sitting out front.</p> <p id="dyVuMG">“I hear gunshots every day,” she said. “I just listen to hear where they’re coming from, then move to the front or the back of the house.”</p> <p id="e4Dvzi">The block — near the open-air drug markets of the city’s West Side and a border between rival gangs’ territory — has always had its share of violence. When Hernandez-Sutton was in high school in the early 1990s, Chicago regularly saw more than 900 murders per year.</p> <p id="DB7nz3">But 2021 seems worse, she says. Far worse.</p> <p id="MGmLab">“It feels different now than it was,” she said. “You used to get a couple weeks, months even, where you didn’t hear shooting. Not anymore.”</p> <p id="LRAMHe">Hernandez-Sutton’s intuition isn’t wrong. Chicago in 2021 saw 836 homicides, according to data maintained by the Cook County medical examiner’s office, though six of the victims died from complications of “remote” gunshot wounds that at least four suffered in previous years.</p> <p id="3qj2L6">The county’s death toll is significantly higher than the 797 homicides reported by the Chicago Police Department, which doesn’t include expressway shootings and killings in self-defense. Nevertheless, the department’s tally is the highest in 25 years.</p> <p id="3amOjL">In neighborhoods like West Garfield Park — those with high levels of poverty and mostly minority residents — the level of violence has likely never been worse, according to data compiled by the University of Chicago Crime Lab and a Chicago Sun-Times analysis of <a href="https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Violence-Reduction-Victims-of-Homicides-and-Non-Fa/gumc-mgzr/data" target="_blank">city violence data</a>.</p> <p id="SNqJpE">Mayor Lori Lightfoot and her Chicago City Council critics are at odds over what to do to stem the violence, and experts say the city will need to confront a history of disinvestment that has for decades left the same pockets of the city facing nightmarish levels of bloodshed.</p> <p id="5ffTkq"></p> <div id="9KGqjA"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/police-beats/reset.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/police-beats/style.css"> <div id="policeBeatMap"> <img src="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/police-beats/placeholder.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> <h3 id="WSIFFA" style="font-size:1.02em">Most violent areas grew even more dangerous</h3> <p id="CqsqGc">Hernandez-Sutton’s house sits at the eastern edge of the six-by-10-block area of Police Beat 1132, which is bordered by Jackson Boulevard, Roosevelt Road and Springfield and Kildare avenues. Police logged 400 alerts from its ShotSpotter gunshot detection system in that area in 2021. Those bullets hit one or more people 73 times, the most shootings of any of the city’s 277 police beats. A dozen people were killed, including <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2021/5/24/22451351/dajon-gater-guitars-guns-rap-lawndale-shooting" target="_blank">15-year-old Dajon Gater </a>and <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2021/6/10/22528457/tyrese-taylor-teen-shot-lawndale-roosevelt-keeler-gun-violence" target="_blank">14-year-old Tyrese Taylor.</a></p> <div> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23135339/dejon.jpeg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642504830_8763_1901221" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23135339,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="" data-upload-width="900" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mlFxZzuXt16xXtrUDUOUHcOKqag=/0x0:900x600/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:900x600):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23135339/dejon.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>Dajon Gater, 15, who was killed in May, was one of 12 people murdered in Police Beat 1132 last year.</figcaption> <cite>Provided/Andre Daniels</cite> </span> </figure> </div> <p id="pIKAPf">As 2021 drew to a close, the city’s murder total rose 3% above 2020, according to CPD statistics, a year that saw killings surge to nearly two-thirds more than the number slain in 2019. The death toll is the most since the mid-1990s but lower than in the worst years of the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s.</p> <p id="IjK7GB">Recent shootings, carjacking and retail thefts <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2021/9/29/22701326/4-wounded-west-town-shooting" target="_blank">in more affluent parts of Chicago</a> have drawn plenty of media attention to the surging violence in Chicago. But the murder rates in those neighborhoods last year were near record low levels: 3.5 murders per 100,000 residents — less than a third of the 1992 rate for those same communities.</p> <p id="bah0AU">In fact, the Crime Lab says the trends in the safer police districts in the city are closer to those in New York or Los Angeles, cities that combined, have fewer murders than Chicago.</p> <p id="23Lm89">Chicago’s bloodshed was largely confined to just a handful of neighborhoods — 10 of the city’s 77 community areas accounted for more than half of all homicides citywide. With 38 killings and a population of just 17,433, West Garfield Park’s murder rate was almost 218 per 100,000 residents — more than seven times the rate for the city as a whole.</p> <p id="KNkKMh">In the seven most-violent police districts in the city, the rate was 25 times higher than the rest of the city — nearly 100 murders per 100,000 residents. That’s the largest such gap between the safest and least-safe areas in the 60 years of data tracked by the Crime Lab.</p> <p id="LYuF2c"></p> <div id="AajtVj"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/top-20-community-areas/reset.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/top-20-community-areas/style.css"> <div id="top_20_community_areas"> <img src="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/top-20-community-areas/amp.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> <p id="mXyy2x"></p> <div id="DxDeTq"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/community-areas/reset.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/community-areas/style.css"> <div id="communityAreaMap"> <img src="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/community-areas/placeholder.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> <p id="IyhduX">When the murder rate began tumbling citywide starting in the 1990s, the number of killings fell dramatically in poor, minority communities as well as in wealthier enclaves. But as violence spiked over the last two years, Chicago’s most-violent neighborhoods have never been more dangerous, according to data compiled by the Crime Lab.</p> <p id="U9NqQY">“We do have a gun violence crisis in Chicago, and it has always been hyper-concentrated in just a handful of neighborhoods,” said Roseanna Ander, the lab’s executive director.</p> <p id="IQTNhk">“The pandemic and all the knock-on effects of unemployment, business closures, disconnection … all of that exacerbated the situation and pulled the rug out from under neighborhoods that already faced a lack of access to resources.”</p> <div> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23133353/TEENKILLED_061121_1.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642504830_4412_1901222" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23133353,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="" data-upload-width="3000" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yb1vvayN3ySTJYeKGMYCaBA3bqA=/0x0:3000x2000/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23133353/TEENKILLED_061121_1.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>Chicago police work the scene where a 14-year-old by was shot and killed in the 1100 block of South Karlov Ave, in the Lawndale neighborhood, Thursday, June 10, 2021.</figcaption> <cite>Tyler LaRiviere/Sun-Times</cite> </span> </figure> </div> <h3 id="2zUgfg" style="font-size:1.02em">Record year for violence and a crisis for mayor</h3> <p id="m9yKAP">The two-year spike in killings in Chicago mirrors a <a href="https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboards/ytd-murder-comparison/" target="_blank">national phenomenon</a>. At least <a href="https://www.axios.com/homicide-cities-crime-police-09d3c523-adb1-4f7d-8d80-5c978c6192b5.html" target="_blank">12 American cities saw record numbers</a> of homicides last year, and from 2019 to 2020, the number of murders nationwide jumped 30%, the largest single-year increase in 50 years.</p> <p id="sjssj0">In Chicago, the increase in murders from 2019 to 2020 was 55%, according to CPD homicide data, though last year’s 3% increase over 2020 trailed the national increase of nearly 7%.</p> <p id="Bv80kf"></p> <div id="7XSeb4"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/cumulative-homicides/reset.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/cumulative-homicides/style.css"> <div id="cumulative_homicides"> <img src="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/cumulative-homicides/amp.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> <p id="7Xnv5Y"></p> <div id="gzmCDC"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/line-chart/reset.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/line-chart/style.css"> <div id="homicides_chicago_line"> <img src="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/line-chart/amp.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> <p id="xkE8vr">The soaring violence in Chicago has become a charged issue for first-term Mayor Lori Lightfoot.</p> <p id="WKaihV">A former federal prosecutor who served on the Chicago Police Board and later campaigned as a progressive reformer, Lightfoot has been caught in the middle of a contentious debate over how to address a crime wave.</p> <p id="ueQJgv">Protests after the murder of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis in the spring of 2020 and the fatal police shooting of 13-year-old Adam Toledo in Little Village last spring came with calls for crime-fighting strategies that didn’t involve more aggressive policing.</p> <p id="asVyy2">Lightfoot and her newly appointed police superintendent, David Brown, rolled out tactics that offered something for those on either side of the debate. Police overtime spending reached nearly $180 million in 2020, as officers were called to manage repeated demonstrations and looting over the summer. The 2021 OT costs were <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/fran-spielman-show/2021/8/12/22622099/chicago-police-department-overtime-mayor-lightfoot-vow-rein-in" target="_blank">budgeted for $150 million</a>.</p> <p id="i8uEA0">Brown launched a pair of citywide tactical teams to suppress crime with more than 500 total officers combined. Brown also <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/6/4/22519122/chicago-police-department-community-policing-program-supt-david-brown" target="_blank">announced the department had “rededicated” to community policing</a> strategies, and Lightfoot committed $36 million to <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/2021/7/25/22557206/lightfoot-our-city-our-safety-gun-violence-chicago-plan" target="_blank">community-based anti-violence programs in 2021</a> and boosted funding to more than $80 million for 2022.</p> <p id="ua9dhX">Lightfoot’s violence prevention plan also includes hundreds of millions in spending on economic development programs in the city’s poorest, most under-resourced neighborhoods. In an interview with the Sun-Times, Lightfoot said the combined strategies go beyond what she called “putting cops on dots” — or simply throwing more police officers at high-crime areas.</p> <p id="mCu7rQ">Lightfoot acknowledged all city residents, regardless of where they live or what they think of policing, share a unifying connection: “They fear that they themselves could be a victim of crime.”</p> <p id="0VnYzS">“It’s absolutely essential that we respond to that fear, not by swinging the pendulum one way or the other to the extreme but by making sure we lean into what works,” she said.</p> <p id="NVaYv7">“That we hold violent dangerous criminals and gang members accountable but we also at the same time really double down on our efforts to get at the root cause of crime.”</p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23133381/LIGHTFOOT_BROWN_072321_26.JPG"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642504830_3188_1901223" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23133381,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="" data-upload-width="6939" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vK0eWEbPCd6x5PHHwxv-QbdUN-c=/0x0:6939x4628/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:6939x4628):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23133381/LIGHTFOOT_BROWN_072321_26.JPG" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Police Supt. David Brown talk about gun violence outside of the 11th District Chicago Police Department at 3151 W Harrison St in Lawndale, Thursday, July 22, 2021.</figcaption> <cite>Anthony Vazquez/Sun-Times</cite> </span> </figure> <p id="xPVDL9">During a news conference near the end of the year, Lightfoot sought to quell fears about the surging violent crime but pushed a range of responses she can do little to control.</p> <p id="qyvD8A">She called for a moratorium on releasing violent crime suspects from jail to electronic monitoring, pressed federal authorities for more help cracking down on illegal guns and again touted her stalled ordinance to seize more gang-tied assets by taking them to court. The ordinance has languished with the City Council, captive to critics who question whether the proposal would be effective or even exacerbate crime.</p> <p id="UNRVQE">Despite those efforts, the number of killings and shootings in the city has continued to rise, including <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/2021/7/25/22557206/lightfoot-our-city-our-safety-gun-violence-chicago-plan" target="_blank">sharp increases in some of the 15 crime-plagued neighborhoods</a> targeted for her anti-violence spending.</p> <p id="GJ13XG">But with the police department’s ranks depleted, alderpersons have been left to battle over police resources with little guidance on deployment numbers. During a news conference last Thursday, Supt. Brown promised <a href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/12/30/22860486/deadliest-year-quarter-century-top-cop-promises-more-detectives-solve-crimes-officers-neighborhoods" target="_blank">more detectives to solve murders and more cops to engage with communities</a> as he reflected on the “challenging year here in the city of Chicago.”</p> <p id="SXQ6qI">“Right now, we’re in a crisis,” Lightfoot told the Sun-Times. “Our people want us to respond, and we’re doing that. And we’re going to keep doing what we know works.”</p> <h3 id="ZzyISP" style="font-size:1.02em">A call to go ‘back to basics’</h3> <p id="sylcUN">But Lightfoot’s wide-ranging response to crime hasn’t won over critics on the City Council.</p> <p id="5RMsLl">Ald. Raymond Lopez (15th) has emerged as one of the mayor’s loudest detractors and a more conservative alderperson. Lopez called for more aggressive policing, a “get back to basics” approach he said is needed to contain crime before shifting to programs that target poverty and the cycle of violence.</p> <p id="9GmADG">“Many of our officers are not arresting people, are letting crimes that happen right in front of them go by because they don’t want to be misconstrued as being racist or being held liable for any kind of misconceived notions of brutality or whatever,” he said.</p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23133388/merlin_67043088.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642504830_9496_1901224" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23133388,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="Ald. Raymond Lopez" data-upload-width="6000" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZS04q21tgVDPUdeRlTo9q9jM90w=/0x0:6000x4000/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:6000x4000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23133388/merlin_67043088.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="Ald. Raymond Lopez" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>Ald. Raymond Lopez</figcaption> <cite>Sun-Times file</cite> </span> </figure> <p id="ATZCXW">Lopez wants the police department to address looting and pervasive carjackings by revisiting chase policies and procedures that he said prevent cops from apprehending crime suspects. But he’s also pushing ordinances aimed specifically at tamping down crime.</p> <p id="ZeuMhs">In June, for example, he introduced legislation that would fine kids and young adults for breaking certain laws — like breaking curfew, public intoxication and having a gun — and require them to undergo family counseling. The measure is part of a larger effort “to invest as much money in restoring families in their values as we do in anti-violence initiatives,” he said.</p> <p id="2TlGIJ">“Otherwise, we might as well just set on fire the $80 million we’re putting aside for anti-violence because none of it will matter if you have someone without values or empathy for other people,” Lopez said.</p> <p id="uEkcsD">Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez (25th), a member of the Democratic Socialist Caucus who has advocated for cutting police funding, shared a divergent vision for addressing the city’s “worsening” violent crime.</p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23140201/merlin_102868916.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642504830_1683_1901225" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23140201,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez (25th) speaks during the Chicago City Council meeting at City Hall, Wednesday morning, Dec. 15, 2021." data-upload-width="4486" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/za-pq7fIZ5en8ZMqCuWgZ-28VDs=/0x0:4486x2991/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:4486x2991):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23140201/merlin_102868916.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez (25th) speaks during the Chicago City Council meeting at City Hall, Wednesday morning, Dec. 15, 2021." style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez (25th) speaks during the Chicago City Council meeting at City Hall, Wednesday morning, Dec. 15, 2021.</figcaption> <cite>Ashlee Rezin/Sun-Times</cite> </span> </figure> <p id="KBKflA">As Sigcho-Lopez called for a change in policing strategies and bemoaned the police department’s relatively low clearance rates, he raised concerns about spending and a possible slide back into drug war-era crime-fighting tactics. In arguing that spending more on cops will only result in more trauma in communities ravaged by violence, he pressed instead to focus on poverty, unemployment and other “root causes” of the problem.</p> <p id="f08lXi">“Last year, we had the same narrative about bringing more police officers, investing more in policing [and] protecting downtown. The budgets reflect that. We did it again. But look at the results,” said the alderperson, who introduced an ill-fated budget amendment in October to increase violence prevention spending to $100 million.</p> <h3 id="mZTg1o" style="font-size:1.02em">A history of violence, segregation</h3> <p id="IApURM">Patrick Sharkey, a criminologist and professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University, said policymakers must look for new, more equitable solutions to violent crime. Sharkey’s book, “<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/Uneasy-Peace/about-the-book/description" target="_blank">Uneasy Peace</a>: The Great Crime Decline, the Renewal of City Life, and the Next War on Violence,” described how “broken windows” policing strategies prioritized an aggressive police presence and record levels of incarceration. The tactics have lowered crime but also destabilized neighborhoods and badly hurt residents’ view of law enforcement.</p> <p id="aPRiWa">“One of the lessons of the past six or seven years is if you have a reduction of violence that arises from brute force — that arises by incarcerating millions of Americans — you don’t have a sustainable solution to the problem,” he said.</p> <p id="oCBJj9">Sharkey, who recently co-authored an analysis of more than a half-century of Chicago violence, said the “inequalities in violence” are in neighborhoods that are predominantly Black or Latino, which middle-class residents — of all races — largely abandoned in the 1960s. The same neighborhoods have dealt with high levels of violence, year after year, for decades.</p> <p id="dJTWN2">“The reason that’s the case,” he said, “is because of the persistent economic and racial segregation, not just in Chicago but in the entire metro area around Chicago, which has led to neighborhoods that have been places of disinvestment for decades.”</p> <p id="zgxLA6">Murder in Chicago is highly segregated as well. Blacks were victims of more than 80% of homicides in 2021, though they make up only about a third of the city population. About 3% of the victims were white, according to CPD records.</p> <h3 id="foRQpT" style="font-size:1.02em"><a href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/homicides-by-race/" target="_blank"></a></h3> <div id="If0F1m"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/homicides-by-race/reset.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/homicides-by-race/style.css"> <div id="homicides_by_race"> <img src="https://graphics.suntimes.com/cst-projects/2021/EOY-violence/homicides-by-race/amp.jpeg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> <h3 id="zGENvC" style="font-size:1.02em">‘What does the future hold?’</h3> <p id="LJYwOY">If there is a glimmer of hope to Chicago’s murder statistics in 2021, it’s the rate of increase dropped sharply, said Rick Rosenfeld, a researcher at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, who is tracking crime statistics during the pandemic for the National Council on Criminal Justice.</p> <p id="kKli0b">The spike in 2020 followed by a leveling off in 2021 are patterns that have emerged in cities across the country no matter the approach taken to fighting crime, Rosenfeld said.</p> <p id="olcb3e">The pandemic and highly publicized police killings seem to have been behind the two-year increase in violence, he said. The pandemic, or at least the various economic dislocations related to COVID-19, should begin to subside in 2022, he hopes. The murder rate might follow suit.</p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22238466/merlin_73908667.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642504830_4636_1901226" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22238466,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="Roseanna Ander, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab." data-upload-width="4000" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bHVN7ZgUIyT8EPB83CTqmGQDRhc=/0x0:4000x2667/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:4000x2667):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22238466/merlin_73908667.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="Roseanna Ander, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab." style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>Roseanna Ander, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab.</figcaption> <cite>Sun-Times file</cite> </span> </figure> <p id="HnLuUZ">“I think what we’re seeing with violence is very important but relatively transitory,” Rosenfeld said, noting the course of the pandemic and social unrest may be unpredictable.</p> <p id="qQ7SeK">“What does the future hold? Barring another egregious incident of police use of force that goes viral and assails police legitimacy, and if the pandemic becomes endemic … then it won’t involve wholesale dislocations of the initial phase of the pandemic. I think we’re seeing a gradual decline in both the rate of increase and the number [of murders].”</p> <p id="zaKdCf">But the crime surge has shown who suffers most when a shock to the social system disrupts normal life, said the Crime Lab’s Ander. Day-to-day life in many parts of the city has long been too violent.</p> <p id="SE0Fga">“The neighborhoods that have seen the least investment have always had the most violence, and what we are seeing with the pandemic is that those disparities have become even more pronounced,” Ander said. “The violence has surged in the places where violence was already unconscionably high.”</p> <p id="F860cX"><em>Jesse Howe and Andy Boyle contributed data analysis for this report.</em></p> </div>
Published: 16 days ago
<div> <div> <p id="TDPpRG">Since the 1990s, America has undergone an incredible transformation: Violent crime and murders have dropped by roughly half across the country.</p> <p id="huPwm4">Why? We actually don’t know for sure. But criminologists have put forward some theories.</p> <p id="cQRD1L">Some, like mass incarceration, seemed pretty solid in the 1990s, but have been called into question as more data has come in. Others, like the idea that more guns mean less crime, never had much, if any, good research behind them. Meanwhile, some new theories — like lead getting taken out of gasoline — have gotten very popular. </p> <p id="Gt5gL9">Chances are that no one change is to credit for the whole crime drop. Instead, a lot of factors likely worked together to produce America’s steep decline in crime.</p> <p id="67jXq4">Here is a look at some of the major factors that have been credited over the past few years, as well as the evidence behind them.</p> <p id="EQUtGU"><em>—</em><em><strong> </strong></em><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/dara-lind" target="_blank"><em><strong>Dara Lind</strong></em></a><em><strong> </strong></em><em>and </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/german-lopez" target="_blank"><em><strong>German Lopez</strong></em></a></p> </div> <div> <div>Start here</div> <div> <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/17991672/crime-drop-murder-mass-incarceration-prison" data-analytics-link="call-to-action" target="_blank"> The theory: putting more people in prison helped reduce crime </a> </div> </div> </div>
Published: 6 years ago
<main class="main container clearfix" id="main" role="main"> <section id="content" class="content"> <article id="post-948" class="post-948 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-reports"> <div> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em">Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities: 2020 Year-End Update</h2> <p>This report examines changes in crime rates in 34 American cities during calendar year 2020, with a special emphasis on homicide and other violent crimes. The current study updates previous studies by the authors with additional data through December 2020. The study was conducted by criminologist and Professor Emeritus Richard Rosenfeld and Ernesto Lopez of the University of Missouri – St. Louis and Thomas Abt, Commission Director and Council on Criminal Justice Senior Fellow.</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><span style="color:#66bac9;" class="has-inline-color">Methodology</span></h3> <p>This study examines monthly crime rates for ten violent, property, and drug offenses in  34 U.S. cities. Not all cities reported monthly data for each crime. The largest city in the sample is New York, with 8.42 million residents. The smallest is Norfolk, Virginia, with 245,000 residents. The crime data were obtained from the online portals of city police departments. The data are subject to revision, and offense classifications varied somewhat across the cities.</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><span style="color:#66bac9;" class="has-inline-color">Findings</span></h3> <ul><li>Homicides rose sharply in 2020, and rates of aggravated assaults and gun assaults increased as well. Homicide rates were 30% higher than in 2019, an historic increase representing 1,268 more deaths in the sample of 34 cities than the year before.<br></li><li>The magnitude of this increase is deeply troubling, but absolute rates of homicide remain well below historical highs. In 2020, the homicide rate was 11.4 deaths per 100,000 residents in sample cities; 25 years earlier, in 1995, the rate was 19.4 per 100,000 residents.<br></li><li>Aggravated assault and gun assault rates in 2020 were 6% and 8% higher, respectively, than in 2019. Robbery rates declined by 9%.<br></li><li>Domestic violence increased significantly during the early months of the pandemic, but these results should be viewed with caution as year-end rates were comparable to year-end rates in 2019, and findings were based on data from just 12 cities.<br></li><li>Property and drug crime rates, with the exception of motor vehicle theft, fell significantly in 2020. Residential burglary decreased by 24%, nonresidential burglary by 7%, larceny by 16%, and drug offenses by 30%. Motor vehicle theft rose by 13%.<br></li><li>Homicides increased in nearly all of the 34 cities in the sample. In the authors’ view, urgent action is necessary to address these rapidly rising rates. Subduing the pandemic, increasing confidence in the police and the justice system, and implementing proven anti-violence strategies will be necessary to achieve a durable peace in the nation’s cities.</li></ul> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><a href="https://build.neoninspire.com/counciloncj/wp-content/uploads/sites/96/2021/07/Year-End-Crime-Update_Designed.pdf" target="_blank">Read the Report</a></h3> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><a href="https://build.neoninspire.com/counciloncj/wp-content/uploads/sites/96/2021/07/FINAL_Press-Release_Crime-Year-End-Update.pdf" target="_blank">Read the Press Release</a></h3> <p></p> <div><div><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Share this:</h3><div><ul></ul></div></div></div><div id='like-post-wrapper-180675595-948-61e6b3f7ced1d' data-src='https://widgets.wp.com/likes/#blog_id=180675595&post_id=948&origin=covid19.counciloncj.org&obj_id=180675595-948-61e6b3f7ced1d' data-name='like-post-frame-180675595-948-61e6b3f7ced1d' data-title='Like or Reblog'><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Like this:</h3><div><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a target="_blank"></a></div> </div> <footer class="entry-footer"> </footer> <nav class="navigation post-navigation" role="navigation" aria-label="Posts"> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em">Post navigation</h2> <div><div><a href="https://covid19.counciloncj.org/2021/01/05/final-report/" target="_blank"><span class="meta-nav" aria-hidden="true">Previous</span> <span class="screen-reader-text">Previous post:</span> <span class="post-title">Final Report</span></a></div><div><a href="https://covid19.counciloncj.org/2021/02/23/impact-report-covid-19-and-domestic-violence-trends/" target="_blank"><span class="meta-nav" aria-hidden="true">Next</span> <span class="screen-reader-text">Next post:</span> <span class="post-title">Impact Report: COVID-19 and Domestic Violence Trends</span></a></div></div> </nav> </article> </section> </main>
Published: 11 months ago
<main id="main" class="main sa-release sp--poll type-feature"> <div data-template="shared-release"> <div> <div> <div> <div>Social & Policy Issues</div> <span>In U.S., Black Confidence in Police Recovers From 2020 Low</span> </div> <div> <ul class="nav "> <li class="social-icon iconemail"><a onclick="ga('send', 'event', { eventCategory: 'social_media_share', eventAction: 'social_media_click', eventLabel: 'Email'});" href="mailto:?subject=Gallup: In U.S., Black Confidence in Police Recovers From 2020 Low&body=https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="sr-only">Share via Email</span></a></li> <li class="social-icon iconprint"><a href="news.gallup.com?version=print" target="_blank"><span class="sr-only">Print</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div> <div> </div> </div> </div> <article class="o-article" data-releaseid="352304" data-itemid="POLL-352304"> <div> <header class="header-article"> <div> <ul class="nav "> <li class="social-icon iconemail"><a onclick="ga('send', 'event', { eventCategory: 'social_media_share', eventAction: 'social_media_click', eventLabel: 'Email'});" href="mailto:?subject=Gallup: In U.S., Black Confidence in Police Recovers From 2020 Low&body=https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="sr-only">Share via Email</span></a></li> <li class="social-icon iconprint"><a href="news.gallup.com?version=print" target="_blank"><span class="sr-only">Print</span></a></li> </ul> </div> <div> <div>Social & Policy Issues</div> <time datetime="2021-07-14">July 14, 2021</time> </div> <div> <h1 style="font-size:1.2em">In U.S., Black Confidence in Police Recovers From 2020 Low</h1> <div>by <a href="news.gallup.com//www.gallup.com/people/item.aspx?a=100180" target="_blank">Jeffrey M. Jones</a></div> <div> <img src="https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/pvpobc713eaas-elzkdyza.jpg" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div> </div> </header> <div> <div aria-label="Summary"> <h4>Story Highlights</h4> <ul> <li>27% of Black adults confident in police, up from 19% in 2020</li> <li>Confidence in police among White adults is unchanged</li> <li>Low confidence in criminal justice system among Black, White adults</li> </ul> </div> <p>WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After dipping to a new low last year following the George Floyd killing, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/317114/black-white-adults-confidence-diverges-police.aspx" target="_blank">Black Americans' confidence in the police</a> has mostly recovered but remains low. Currently, 27% of Black adults in the U.S. say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in the police, up from 18% in 2020 but similar to the levels seen between 2014 and 2019.</p> <p>Meanwhile, White Americans' confidence in police is unchanged from a year ago and lower than it had been before the Floyd incident.</p> <div id="longdesc_1626127789408"> <p>Line graph. Confidence in the police by race. Twenty-seven percent of Black Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, up from 19% in 2020. Black Americans' confidence in the police had been higher in the 1990s, averaging 34%, and 2000s, averaging 37%. It held at an average 36% between 2010 and 2013 before dropping to 30% between 2014 and 2019. Meanwhile, White Americans' confidence in police, at 56%, is unchanged from 2020 but lower than prior to that, when it was mostly around 60% between the 1990s and 2019.</p> </div> <p>Last year's update of this Gallup trend, measured in June and July 2020, found 37 percentage points separating the figures for White and Black Americans. With the uptick in confidence among Black Americans this year, the gap has decreased to 29 percentage points. The current Black-White difference is similar to the average 30-point gap between 2014 and 2019, a period marked by several high-profile events in which Black people were killed in incidents with White police officers.</p> <p>Between Gallup's first measure of confidence in the police in 1993 and 2013, White and Black Americans' ratings of police were generally stable and differed by 25 points, on average.</p> <p>Overall, 51% of all U.S. adults currently have <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/352316/americans-confidence-major-institutions-dips.aspx" target="_blank">confidence in the police</a>, after it dropped to a low of 48% last year. Confidence is still slightly below the pre-Floyd reading of 53% from 2019 and well below the historical high of 64% in 2004.</p> <p>The annual Gallup update on Confidence in Institutions comes from a June 1-July 5 Gallup poll that includes oversamples of Black and Hispanic adults to allow for reliable reporting of those subgroups.</p> <p>Forty-nine percent of Hispanic Americans are confident in the police, significantly higher than the 27% among Black Americans but lower than the 56% among White Americans. The 2020 Confidence in Institutions survey did not include an oversample of Hispanic adults; however, the available data suggests their confidence in police also fell last year but has rebounded this year.</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><strong>Confidence in Criminal Justice System Shows Modest Racial Differences</strong></h3> <p>While Black Americans are far less likely than White Americans to have high confidence in the police, neither group has strong confidence in the criminal justice system, more generally. Just 17% of White Americans and 11% of Black Americans have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in it.</p> <p>However, the two racial groups differ on the lower and middle range of the confidence spectrum -- 61% of Black Americans, compared with 41% of White Americans, say they have "very little" or "no" confidence in the criminal justice system.</p> <p>Currently, 35% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the criminal justice system, more than the 30% who have little or no confidence in it.</p> <figure contenteditable="false"> <figcaption> <div id="caption-20210712130157">Confidence in U.S. Criminal Justice System, by Race and Ethnicity</div> </figcaption> <div> <table aria-labelledby="caption-20210712130157"> <thead> <tr> <td> </td> <th colspan="1" scope="col">Black adults</th> <th colspan="1" scope="col">White adults</th> <th colspan="1" scope="col">Hispanic adults</th> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <th colspan="1"><span class="col-unit">%</span></th> <th colspan="1"><span class="col-unit">%</span></th> <th colspan="1"><span class="col-unit">%</span></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <th scope="row">A great deal</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">5</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">4</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">16</td> </tr> <tr> <th scope="row">Quite a lot</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">6</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">13</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">19</td> </tr> <tr> <th scope="row">Some</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">29</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">42</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">35</td> </tr> <tr> <th scope="row">Very little</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">58</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">38</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">28</td> </tr> <tr> <th scope="row">None (vol.)</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">3</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">3</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">2</td> </tr> </tbody> <tbody class="row-group"> <tr> <th scope="row">Total % Great deal/Quite a lot</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">11</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">17</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">35</td> </tr> <tr> <th scope="row">Total % Very little/None</th> <td data-th="Black adults" data-thunit="%">61</td> <td data-th="White adults" data-thunit="%">41</td> <td data-th="Hispanic adults" data-thunit="%">30</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot> <tr> <td class="note" colspan="4">(vol.)=volunteered response</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="source" colspan="4">Gallup, June 1-July 5, 2021</td> </tr> </tfoot> </table> </div> </figure> <p>Last year, White Americans were more confident in the criminal justice system than they are this year (24% versus 17%), while Black Americans' confidence is unchanged. For most of Gallup's trend, there has been little difference in the percentage of Black and White Americans who have a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in the criminal justice system.</p> <div id="longdesc_1626124921533"> <p>Line graph. Confidence in the criminal justice system by race. Between the early 1990s and 2013, Black and White Americans had similar and low levels of confidence in the criminal justice system. A modest gap emerged between 2014 and 2019 when 24% of White Americans and 19% of Black Americans were confident. That gap grew to 13 points in 2019 when 24% of White Americans and 11% of Black Americans were confident. This year, 17% of White Americans and 11% of Black Americans are confident in the criminal justice system.</p> </div> <p>During the 1990s, roughly equal percentages of Black (44%) and White (41%) Americans said they had "very little" or "no confidence" in the criminal justice system. But a gap emerged in the 2000s as the percentage of Black adults with little or no confidence held steady while fewer White adults, averaging 28% between 2000 and 2013, held that view. The racial gap expanded in 2014 as increasingly more Black Americans expressed low confidence in the justice system.</p> <p>Hispanic adults have tended to have more confidence in the criminal justice system than either White or Black Americans. Since 2011, when Gallup began regularly conducting interviews with both English and Spanish-speaking Hispanic respondents, an average of 30% of Hispanic adults have had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the criminal justice system, compared with 24% of White adults and 20% of Black adults.</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><strong>Black-White Differences in Ratings of Police Largest for Any Institution</strong></h3> <p>White and Black Americans differ in their confidence in a number of U.S. institutions, but their ratings of police show the largest contrast. The 29-point gap in confidence ratings of the police far exceeds the next largest gap, which is 19 points for small business.</p> <p>There are also double-digit gaps -- by racial group -- in ratings of the military, science, the U.S. Supreme Court, the presidency and television news. White Americans have more confidence than Black Americans in all of these except the presidency and television news.</p> <p>In contrast, Black and White Americans have similar levels of confidence in the public schools, newspapers, large technology companies, churches/organized religion, the medical system, banks and organized labor. Confidence in these institutions tends to be low among both racial groups.</p> <p>In addition to Hispanics' higher ratings of the criminal justice system, they also have greater confidence than Black or White Americans in the public schools, Congress, organized labor, the U.S. Supreme Court, banks and large technology companies.</p> <div id="longdesc_1626123696408"> <p>Interval notation graph. The percentages of Americans who have a great deal and quite a lot of confidence in U.S. institutions, by racial group. 74% of White Americans, 55% of Black Americans and 56% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in small business. 73% of White Americans, 57% of Black Americans and 63% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the military. 56% of White Americans, 27% of Black Americans and 49% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police. 45% of White Americans, 42% of Black Americans and 44% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the medical system. 35% of White Americans, 46% of Black Americans and 56% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the presidency. 37% of White Americans, 35% of Black Americans and 43% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the church or organized religion. 35% of White Americans, 24% of Black Americans and 47% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court. 31% of White Americans, 35% of Black Americans and 44% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in banks. 28% of White Americans, 28% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in public schools. 24% of White Americans, 25% of Black Americans and 43% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in large technology companies. 24% of White Americans, 28% of Black Americans and 39% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in organized labor. 21% of White Americans, 21% of Black Americans and 24% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in newspapers. 17% of White Americans, 11% of Black Americans and 35% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the criminal justice system. 14% of White Americans, 19% of Black Americans and 28% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in big business. 13% of White Americans, 28% of Black Americans and 21% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in television news. 6% of White Americans, 15% of Black Americans and 31% of Hispanic Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in Congress.</p> </div> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em"><strong>Bottom Line</strong></h3> <p>Gallup's tracking of confidence in police dates back nearly three decades, and during this time, Black Americans have never had a high level of confidence in that institution. The series of killings of Black men and women in incidents with White police officers in the past seven years has only further diminished Black Americans' trust in law enforcement, which hit a record low last year after Floyd's death. Black Americans are even less likely to have trust in the criminal justice system.</p> <p>The reasons for the increase in Black Americans' confidence in the police this year are not clear. It could merely be a fading of the intensity of feelings surrounding the Floyd incident. The murder conviction of former police officer Derek Chauvin in the Floyd case may have raised hopes in the Black community of increased accountability for police officers involved in deadly incidents. Additionally, over the past year, many police departments across the country have instituted reforms to address racial disparities in policing.</p> <p>Regardless of the reason for improved Black Americans' confidence in the police this year, it still lags behind where it was in the 1990s and early 2000s. While it may be too early to know whether the newly instituted policing reforms have achieved their aims, it is clear that simply enacting those has not yet been enough to restore the confidence in police lost by the Black community in recent years.</p> <p><em>To stay up to date with the latest Gallup News insights and updates,</em> <a href="https://twitter.com/Gallupnews?utm_source=link_newsv9&utm_campaign=item_352304&utm_medium=copy" target="_blank"><em>follow us on Twitter</em></a><em>.</em></p> <p><em>Learn more about how the <a href="https://www.gallup.com/201200/gallup-poll-social-series-work.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup Poll Social Series</a> works.</em></p> <p> </p> </div> <section class="section--default section-default section-rel--methodology" role="complementary"> <div> <a role="button" data-toggle="collapse" href="news.gallup.com#methodology__body" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="methodology__body" target="_blank"> <div><h2 style="font-size:1.05em">Survey Methods</h2></div> </a> <div id="methodology__body"> <div><p>Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 1-July 5, 2021, with a random sample of 1,381 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The sample includes an oversample of Black and Hispanic adults. The total sample is weighted so that major racial and ethnic subgroups are reflected in their proper proportion in the U.S. adult population. For results based on the sample of 749 Non-Hispanic White adults, the margin of error is ±5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the sample of 275 Non-Hispanic Black adults, the margin of error is ±7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the sample of 302 Hispanic adults, the margin of error is ±7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.</p> <p>Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. </p></div> </div> </div> </section> <div role="complementary"> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em">Related Topics Include:</h2> <span class="flag USA"> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/country_usa.aspx" target="_blank">USA</a></span><span> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/all_gallup_headlines.aspx" target="_blank">All Gallup Headlines</a></span><span> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/black_american_experience.aspx" target="_blank">Black American Experience</a></span><span> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/category_judiciary_and_law_enforcement.aspx" target="_blank">Judiciary and Law Enforcement</a></span><span> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/politics.aspx" target="_blank">Politics</a></span><span> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/race_relations.aspx" target="_blank">Race Relations</a></span><span> <a href="news.gallup.com/topic/category_social_issues.aspx" target="_blank">Social and Policy Issues</a></span></div> <section class="section--default section-default section-rel--sct" role="complementary"> <!-- SCT relationship: allows (1) WEBPART, Standalone Item Tile, CARDBLOB --> <a href="news.gallup.com/315575/measuring-black-voices.aspx" onclick="ga('send', 'event', 'SIDETOP_tile1', 'https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx', 'Gallup%20Center%20on%20Black%20Voices')" target="_blank"> <div><h3 data-overflow="ellipsis" style="font-size:1.02em">Gallup Center on Black Voices</h3></div> <p class="c-tile__copy" data-overflow="ellipsis">Learn about Gallup's 100-year commitment to report the Black experience in America. 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href="news.gallup.com/poll/329723/americans-remain-largely-dissatisfied-gun-laws.aspx" onclick="ga('send', 'event', 'RELATED_tile2', 'https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx', 'Americans%20Remain%20Largely%20Dissatisfied%20With%20U.S.%20Gun%20Laws')" target="_blank">Americans Remain Largely Dissatisfied With U.S. Gun Laws</a></h3></div> <p class="item-synopsis" data-overflow="ellipsis">Nearly six in 10 Americans are dissatisfied with U.S. gun laws, marking the ninth consecutive year of majority-level dissatisfaction.</p></div></div></section> <section class="cmstile tile-feature" data-tileid="312707-TGBCMS"><div> <div> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" data-src="https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/TGBCMS/fzxvalamhe202ca_cjhs0w.jpg" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="news.gallup.comdata:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw=="><noscript><img src="https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/TGBCMS/fzxvalamhe202ca_cjhs0w.jpg" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript> </div> <div><div><a href="news.gallup.com/topic/blog_tgb.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup Blog</a></div><time datetime="2020-06-16">Jun 16, 2020</time></div><div> <div><h3 data-overflow="ellipsis" style="font-size:1.02em"><a href="news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/312707/implications-inequitable-policing-fragile-communities.aspx" onclick="ga('send', 'event', 'RELATED_tile3', 'https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx', 'Implications%20of%20Inequitable%20Policing%20in%20Fragile%20Communities')" target="_blank">Implications of Inequitable Policing in Fragile Communities</a></h3></div> <p class="item-synopsis" data-overflow="ellipsis">Among fragile community residents, 43% say they know "some" or "a lot" of people who have been treated unfairly by the police.</p></div></div></section> <section class="section--default section-default section-tile"> <!-- SCB tile (1 only) goes here if present --> <section class="cmstile tile-feature" data-tileid="328925-TGBCMS"><div> <div> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" data-src="https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/TGBCMS/rbhdgmx_oug4i54oliwvvg.jpg" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" href="news.gallup.comdata:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw=="><noscript><img src="https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/TGBCMS/rbhdgmx_oug4i54oliwvvg.jpg" alt="" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript> </div> <div><div><a href="news.gallup.com/topic/blog_tgb.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup Blog</a></div><time datetime="2021-02-01">Feb 1, 2021</time></div><div> <div><h3 data-overflow="ellipsis" style="font-size:1.02em"><a href="news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/328925/black-life-experience-public-opinions-1935.aspx" onclick="ga('send', 'event', 'SIDEBOTTOM_tile1', 'https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx', 'Black%20Life%20Experience:%20Public%20Opinions%20Since%201935')" target="_blank">Black Life Experience: Public Opinions Since 1935</a></h3></div> <p class="item-synopsis" data-overflow="ellipsis">As we reflect on Black history, we are reminded of the importance and need to document the Black experience and amplify our voices. Inheritors of the Gallup Center on Black Voices will look back on the data we collect today.</p></div></div></section> </section> </div> </div> <section class="section--default section-default visible-print-block section-sourceinfo"> <p> <span data-cite="Release Date"> <time datetime="2021-07-14">July 14, 2021</time> </span><br> <span data-cite="Source">Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/352304/black-confidence-police-recovers-2020-low.aspx</span><br> <span data-cite="Contact">Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A</span><br> 1 202.715.3030 </p> </section> </main>
Published: 6 months ago
<div> <div> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69443673/1167624313.0.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642506721_9490_1895082" data-cdata='{"image_id":69443673,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="A person at a protest holds up a sign that reads, “End gun violence.”" data-upload-width="6720" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mngWy-WWpZN6a1jSo_W0MT-KgM0=/0x0:6720x4480/1200x800/filters:focal(2159x1251:3233x2325)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69443673/1167624313.0.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="A person at a protest holds up a sign that reads, “End gun violence.”" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>People participate in a demonstration and news conference against illegal guns in front of the Jacob Javits Federal Building on August 12, 2019, in New York.</figcaption> <cite>Spencer Platt/Getty Images</cite> </span> </figure> <div> <p id="UWMd4H">The year 2020 saw the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22344713/murder-violent-crime-spike-surge-2020-covid-19-coronavirus" target="_blank">largest recorded increase in homicides</a> in United States history — an increase likely propelled by a complex mix of factors, from more guns to stresses of the pandemic to <a href="https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/spd-warns-of-staffing-crisis-after-66-more-officers-leave/281-040a65b1-3165-4f24-8652-a5d10860aac7" target="_blank">fewer police officers on the streets</a> to a crisis in relations between police and citizens.</p> <p id="y6nFJc">But one persistent theory is that a change in policing last summer primarily drove increased gun violence. This is an especially popular explanation among law enforcement figures. Former Baltimore Police Department Deputy Commissioner Jason Johnson recently <a href="https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/7137565002?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">argued</a> that the real driver of last year’s murder rise was a severe decline in police activity, especially after protests erupted last summer in the wake of George Floyd’s murder. </p> <p id="4CammA">St. Louis Police Commissioner John Hayden suggested that the police resources devoted to protests prevented officers from engaging in neighborhood policing. Former NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly said police were “stretched to the limit” by the protests and coronavirus restrictions. Summarizing widespread reductions in stops and arrests, Johnson wrote that “when the Thin Blue Line retreats, violence charges in.”</p> <p id="EtdXeP">But data from numerous large American cities complicates that narrative, suggesting that the change in policing alone is not sufficient to explain last year’s large increase in murder and that a growing number of firearms on the streets likely played a significant role.</p> <p id="voAPHY">It’s true that police activity, as measured by stops and arrests, declined significantly in 2020. Still, despite that drop, and weeks before Floyd’s murder and the ensuing protests, police began finding firearms more often than in previous years.</p> <p id="tq32Mx">This pattern does not support the idea that overwhelmed police forces weren’t able to take guns off the streets, leading to a surge in violence. Instead, the spike in firearms as a percentage of stops and arrests provides evidence that there were simply more guns on the streets throughout 2020 than in the past, which may have intensified other sources of violence and contributed to the historic rise in murders.</p> <p id="kUzFFG">While there is no standardized, national open data on stops, information on police activity in 10 cities that we compiled points toward the same pattern. </p> <p id="TSZCTm">First, stops and arrests fell rapidly in each city in March and April 2020, driven by pandemic restrictions on police contact or due to fewer people being outside (and thus available to be stopped by police). </p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22653589/goB5z_police_activity_dropped_in_march_2020.png"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642506721_5221_1895083" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22653589,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="Chart: Policy activity dropped in March 2020" data-upload-width="1860" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9cBdZq_L5c9pa28MA49yFYcCDdg=/0x0:1860x1293/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1860x1293):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22653589/goB5z_police_activity_dropped_in_march_2020.png" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="Chart: Policy activity dropped in March 2020" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <cite>Data analysis by Jeff Asher and Rob Arthur</cite> </span> </figure> <p id="sj8X53">If less policing alone led to increased violence, we would have expected to see an uptick in March and April after this clear change. But there was no observable increase in gun violence in these cities at that time. </p> <p id="pvJGs2">Police activity dropped again after Derek Chauvin murdered George Floyd in late May 2020, this time with an accompanying surge in shootings in many cities. Cities generally saw stops and arrests increase over the last few months of 2020 — though still below pre-pandemic levels — with the elevated level of violence remaining. </p> <p id="537Yxm">While the volume of stops and arrests fell dramatically in March and April in all 10 cities, police in every city were more likely to find a firearm when they made stops and arrests. In Chicago, for example, police stops decreased nearly 70 percent between January and May 2020, but officers actually found 83 percent <em>more</em> firearms in May than in January.</p> <p id="PsPd9x">Jens Ludwig, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab, analyzed stops in Chicago and <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-data-points-gun-carrying-crime-lab-20210403-5iz6blr6urhlji7hxwyjwrnhc4-htmlstory.html" target="_blank">concluded</a> that “unless the police have become dramatically better at figuring out who is illegally carrying a gun (and so have become better at figuring out who to stop), the implication is that lots more people are carrying guns illegally in Chicago.”</p> <p id="7z76VV">The same pattern was seen across numerous cities with available data. There were 34 percent fewer arrest charges in Los Angeles in April and May 2020 compared to April and May 2019, but charges for weapons possession were up. The problem was not confined just to big cities, either. In Tucson, Arizona, for example, there were 39 percent fewer arrests in April and May 2020 compared to a year earlier but 29 percent more arrests for weapons or firearms possession. </p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22653702/2wz5m_the_share_of_arrests_finding_weapons_jumped_as_the_pandemic_began.png"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642506721_593_1895084" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22653702,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="Chart: The share of arrests finding weapons jumped as the pandemic began" data-upload-width="1860" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/obkplL3aeSigAIfgHointa1cvS8=/0x0:1860x1260/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1860x1260):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22653702/2wz5m_the_share_of_arrests_finding_weapons_jumped_as_the_pandemic_began.png" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="Chart: The share of arrests finding weapons jumped as the pandemic began" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <cite>Data analysis by Jeff Asher and Rob Arthur</cite> </span> </figure> <p id="lM0qMq">The share of stops or arrests that resulted in a firearm being found increased in every city. In Washington, DC, the share of all arrests that were weapons violations went from 5 percent in January to March 2020, to 7 percent in April and 9 percent in May. The share of arrests for weapons possession went from 1 percent between January and March 2020 in Charleston, South Carolina, to 4 percent between April and December. </p> <p id="mcrSGf">Almost every city followed the same pattern: a dramatic jump in the share of arrests or stops with a firearm in April and May, a decline in June, and a return to the earlier elevated levels for the remainder of the year. </p> <h3 id="ldvou1" style="font-size:1.02em">The legitimacy crisis in law enforcement</h3> <p id="kcWoLB">The implication of this trend is that — assuming police did not suddenly become substantially better at identifying who has an illegal gun — firearm carrying increased at the beginning of the pandemic, well before the protests, and persisted at that level for the remainder of the year. </p> <p id="FyFxCh">It is possible that in the midst of the pandemic, police started engaging in better-targeted stops that were more likely to yield arrests. But finding other kinds of contraband, like drugs, did not become more frequent, only guns. </p> <p id="NCs4Sx">Data on <a href="https://informationportal.igchicago.org/investigatory-stop-reports-searches/" target="_blank">investigatory stops</a> — <a href="https://www.theiacp.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/Arrests etc. June 2020.pdf" target="_blank">defined</a> as stops “based upon reasonable suspicion that the person has committed, is committing, or is about to commit a crime” — in Chicago is instructive and suggests more firearms were found because more were being carried, rather than a change in policing strategy. </p> <p id="Y5mwGl">The share of searches in investigative stops that found drugs just before Covid-19 lockdowns was virtually unchanged after Covid-19, going from 20.9 percent between October 2019 and March 2020 to 20.7 percent between April and September 2020. The demographics of searches did not change much, either, with Black people making up 74.3 percent of people searched in stops from October 2019 to March 2020 and 76.1 percent from April through December. But CPD officers found firearms in 11.5 percent of searches from April to September, compared to 3.7 percent of searches in the six months prior. </p> <p id="YjNzpr">Since all cities with data had an increase in the share of stops or arrests with a gun at around the same time, no one change in departmental or prosecutorial policy can explain why.</p> <p id="KGEwz3">Investigative stops and arrests show an increase in firearm carrying beginning in March or April, shortly after <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view" target="_blank">background checks surged to unprecedented levels</a> nationally. More firearms could have contributed to the historic rise in murders in 2020 by turning less dangerous crimes into potentially lethal encounters. </p> <p id="KFrOIQ">Police finding more firearms in stops and arrests does not fit with the idea that a decrease in proactive police activity targeting firearms was the major driver for 2020’s historic murder totals, though it certainly cannot be ruled out as a contributing factor. </p> <p id="f82wsq">Johnson put the blame on progressive prosecutors, writing that “making arrests for drug and weapons crimes that will go unprosecuted exposes officers to the risk of disciplinary action, lawsuits and criminal prosecution. To mitigate that risk, police take a more passive approach.” But firearm arrests increased 42 percent in Philadelphia — home of progressive prosecutor Larry Krasner — between April and December 2020, compared to the same time frame in 2019.</p> <p id="V0vU3E">The data all points to substantially more complex causes behind the rise in murder than the simple narrative of a change in policing as the sole or even main driver. It is plausible, though, that the summer’s drops in stops and arrests, protests against police violence, and increases in gun violence are all symptoms of the same disease: what criminologists David Pyrooz, Justin Nix, and Scott Wolfe recently called a “legitimacy crisis in the criminal justice system,” the result of intensifying distrust in “the law and its gatekeepers” as a result of injustice. </p> <p id="1HqP4g">Writing in <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2021/02/24/denver-crime-rate-homicide-shooting-property-crime-police/" target="_blank">the Denver Post</a>, they said that a “legitimacy crisis is consequential for three reasons. The first is depolicing, where officers pull back from proactive policing in response to public criticism. Second, depleted trust in the law means citizens will think twice about calling the police to report crimes or suspicious behaviors. Lastly, delegitimacy of the law emboldens criminal offending populations, as the moral obligation to follow the law is weakened.”</p> <p id="ZZ9cua">The trend toward more firearms sales and more guns on the street seems to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/upshot/murder-rate-usa.html" target="_blank">continued into 2021</a>. Background checks accelerated even beyond last year’s peak in the first three months of this year. And the latest data from these cities’ stops shows that police are finding as many guns as they did in the second half of 2020. </p> <p id="bPoxr0">Early figures from many cities show murders have increased from last year’s baseline as well. If the greater availability of firearms contributed to last year’s violence, the latest arrest data suggests it may contribute even more deaths to 2021’s murder total.</p> <p id="qQQrWS"><em>Rob Arthur is an independent journalist and data scientist based in Chicago. He’s on Twitter at </em><a href="https://twitter.com/No_Little_Plans" target="_blank"><em>@No_Little_Plans</em></a><em>. Jeff Asher is a crime analyst based in New Orleans and co-founder of AH Datalytics. You can find him on Twitter at </em><a href="https://twitter.com/crimealytics?lang=en" target="_blank"><em>@Crimealytics</em></a><em>. </em></p> <div> <hr class="p-entry-hr"> <p><strong><a href="http://vox.com/pages/support-now?itm_campaign=default&itm_medium=article&itm_source=article-footer" target="_blank">Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?</a></strong></p> <p> Millions turn to Vox to understand what’s happening in the news. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower through understanding. Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all. <a href="http://vox.com/pages/support-now?itm_campaign=default&itm_medium=article&itm_source=article-footer" target="_blank"> Please consider making a contribution to Vox today to help us keep our work free for all</a>. </p> </div> </div> <div id="formatter-datter" data-cid="site/entry_formatter-1642506721_2054_1895085" data-cdata='{"svg_hr_illustration":""}'> </div> <section class="c-nextclick" data-cid="apps/nextclick-1642506721_7505_1895087" data-cdata='{"dynamic_links":[{"title":"One Good Thing: ABC’s Abbott Elementary breathes new life into the mockumentary","url":"https://www.vox.com/culture/22878792/abbott-elementary-abc-review","data-analytics-link":"nextclicks","data-analytics-viewport":"nextclicks","data-vars-analytics-link-title":"One Good Thing: ABC’s Abbott Elementary breathes new life into the mockumentary"},{"title":"TV’s buzziest shows aren’t trying to trick viewers anymore","url":"https://www.vox.com/culture/22882797/yellowjackets-finale-succession-mystery-box","data-analytics-link":"nextclicks","data-analytics-viewport":"nextclicks","data-vars-analytics-link-title":"TV’s buzziest shows aren’t trying to trick viewers anymore"},{"title":"The intimacy of the TV star death","url":"https://www.vox.com/2022/1/14/22880578/tv-star-death-intimacy-betty-white-bob-saget","data-analytics-link":"nextclicks","data-analytics-viewport":"nextclicks","data-vars-analytics-link-title":"The intimacy of the TV star death"},{"title":"The lesson America refuses to learn about Covid-19 and the economy","url":"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22877222/omicron-variant-economy-gdp-jobs-covid","data-analytics-link":"nextclicks","data-analytics-viewport":"nextclicks","data-vars-analytics-link-title":"The lesson America refuses to learn about Covid-19 and the economy"},{"title":"Virtual reality is reality, too","url":"https://www.vox.com/vox-conversations-podcast/2022/1/12/22868445/vox-conversations-david-chalmers-the-matrix-reality","data-analytics-link":"nextclicks","data-analytics-viewport":"nextclicks","data-vars-analytics-link-title":"Virtual reality is reality, too"},{"title":"After the Beanie Baby bubble burst","url":"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22870250/nft-beanie-baby-price-guide-bubble-princess-value","data-analytics-link":"nextclicks","data-analytics-viewport":"nextclicks","data-vars-analytics-link-title":"After the Beanie Baby bubble burst"}],"entry_id":22294030,"experiment_id":"exp_121","experiment_base_url":"http://vox-datascience.s3.amazonaws.com/recommender/recs/"}'> <div data-cid="site/related_list-1642506721_4331_1895086" data-cdata="{}"> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em"> Next Up In <a href="https://www.vox.com/latest-news" target="_blank"><span>The Latest</span></a> </h2> <ul> <div> </div> </ul> </div> </section> </div> <div data-analytics-placement="sidebar"> <div> </div> <div> <div id="newsletter-signup-short-form" data-newsletter-slug="vox_weeds"> <div> <span class="c-newsletter_signup_box__icon"> </span> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em"> <span class="sr-only"> Sign up for the newsletter </span> The Weeds </h2> <p class="c-newsletter_signup_box__blurb">Understand how policy impacts people. Delivered Fridays.</p> <form action="/newsletter_form" method="post" id="subForm" data-submit-ajax-redirect="/pages/newsletters" data-analytics-class="newsletter" class="c-newsletter_signup_box--form c-newsletter_signup_box--form__1" data-analytics-placement="sidebar" data-cid="site/newsletter_signup_form-1642506721_6559_1895088" data-cdata="{}"> <div> <h4>Thanks for signing up!</h4> <p>Check your inbox for a welcome email.</p> </div> <div> <div> <label for="field_email" class="c-newsletter_signup_box--form__email"> <span>Email <strong class="c-newsletter_signup_box--form__required-field">(required)</strong></span> </label> <div> </div> </div> <div> By signing up, you agree to our <a href="https://www.voxmedia.com/legal/privacy-notice" target="_blank">Privacy Notice</a> and European users agree to the data transfer policy. 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Published: 7 months ago
<main id="main" class="site-main"> <article id="post-3703" class="post-3703 page type-page status-publish hentry"> <!-- Show post title if 'hsph_post_header_title_display' is true --> <header class="entry-header"><h1 style="font-size:1.2em">Homicide</h1></header> <div> <p><strong>1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review</strong>)</p> <p>Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries.  Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the U.S., where there are more guns, both men and women are at a higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.</p> <p><strong>Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David</strong>.  Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature.  <em>Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal</em>.  2004; 9:417-40.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>2. Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide</strong></p> <p>We analyzed the relationship between homicide and gun availability using data from 26 developed countries from the early 1990s.  We found that across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides.  These results often hold even when the United States is excluded.</p> <p><strong>Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew</strong>.  Firearm availability and homicide rates across 26 high income countries.  <em>Journal of Trauma</em>.  2000; 49:985-88.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>3. Across states, more guns = more homicide</strong></p> <p>Using a validated proxy for firearm ownership, we analyzed the relationship between firearm availability and homicide across 50 states over a ten-year period (1988-1997).</p> <p>After controlling for poverty and urbanization, for every age group, people in states with many guns have elevated rates of homicide, particularly firearm homicide.</p> <p><strong>Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David</strong>.  Household firearm ownership levels and homicide rates across U.S. regions and states, 1988-1997.  <em>American Journal of Public Health</em>.  2002; 92:1988-1993.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>4. Across states, more guns = more homicide (2)</strong></p> <p>Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003.  We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide.  This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty).  There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide.</p> <p><strong>Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David.</strong>  State-level homicide victimization rates in the U.S. in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership, 2001-2003<em>.  Social Science and Medicine</em>.  2007; 64:656-64.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>5. A summary of the evidence on guns and violent death</strong></p> <p>This book chapter summarizes the scientific literature on the relationship between gun prevalence (levels of household gun ownership) and suicide, homicide and unintentional firearm death and concludes that where there are higher levels of gun ownership, there are more gun suicides and more total suicides, more gun homicides and more total homicides, and more accidental gun deaths.</p> <p>This is the first chapter in the book and provides and up-to-date and readable summary of the literature on the relationship between guns and death.  It also adds to the literature by using the National Violent Death Reporting System data to show where (home or away) the shootings occurred.  Suicides for all age groups and homicides for children and aging adults most often occurred in their own home.</p> <p><strong>Miller M, Azrael D, Hemenway D</strong>.  Firearms and violence death in the United States.  In: Webster DW, Vernick JS, eds.  <em>Reducing Gun Violence in America</em>.  Baltimore MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>6. More guns = more homicides of police</strong></p> <p>This article examines homicide rates of Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) from 1996 to 2010.  Differences in rates of homicides of LEOs across states are best explained not by differences in crime, but by differences in household gun ownership.  In high gun states, LEOs are 3 times more likely to be murdered than LEOs working in low-gun states.</p> <p>This article was cited by President Obama in a speech to a police association.  This article will hopefully bring police further into the camp of those pushing for sensible gun laws.</p> <p>Swedler DI, Simmons MM, Dominici F, <strong>Hemenway D</strong>.  Firearm prevalence and homicides of law enforcement officers in the United States.  <em>American Journal of Public Health</em>.  2015; 105:2042-48.</p> </div><!-- .entry-content --> <footer class="entry-footer"> </footer><!-- .entry-footer --> </article><!-- #post-## --> </main>
Published: 9 years ago
<div> <div> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69914065/85801741.0.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642506800_6621_714071" data-cdata='{"image_id":69914065,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="A police officer standing on a street with houses in the background." data-upload-width="4368" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8BJEKhwpyrQIJf67E07yyn0qOWE=/0x0:4368x2912/1200x800/filters:focal(1566x452:2264x1150)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69914065/85801741.0.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="A police officer standing on a street with houses in the background." style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <figcaption>A police officer watches a crime scene on April 4, 2009, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.</figcaption> <cite>Ross Mantle/Getty Images</cite> </span> </figure> <div> <p id="0xA2pq">Last year, the US’s murder rate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/upshot/murder-rise-2020.html?utm_source=pocket_mylist" target="_blank">spiked by almost 30 percent</a>. So far in 2021, murders <a href="https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/133bc335-b4e9-41f4-890d-3adb7de5a141/page/QX9NC" target="_blank">are up nearly 10 percent</a> in major cities. The 2020 increase alone is the largest percentage increase ever recorded in America — and a reversal from overall declines in murder rates since the 1990s.</p> <p id="CZs2JX">American policymakers now want answers on this surge. One approach has good evidence behind it: the police.</p> <p id="fgqqaV">There is solid evidence that more police officers and certain policing strategies reduce crime and violence. In a <a href="https://cjexpertpanel.org/surveys/policing-and-public-safety/" target="_blank">recent survey of criminal justice experts</a>, a majority said increasing police budgets would improve public safety. The evidence is especially strong for strategies that home in on very specific problems, individuals, or groups that are causing a lot of crime or violence — approaches that would require restructuring how many police departments work today. </p> <p id="w45dY8">That runs contrary to the push to “defund the police” in progressive circles, which tend to focus on cutting policing to boost alternatives. In the same survey of experts, most said that increasing social service budgets would improve public safety. But experts also say there’s no reason, if the goal is to fight crime, that communities shouldn’t expand both policing and social services — what University of Missouri St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/columns/tony-messenger/messenger-crime-is-down-in-st-louis-bucking-a-national-trend-in-american-cities/article_6c196721-981c-5096-818c-affba76cba2b.html" target="_blank">calls</a> a “both-and” approach.</p> <div><div id="k67pHO"> <div> <h3 id="uXay2q" style="font-size:1.02em"><a href="http://www.vox.com/weeds-newsletter" data-analytics-viewport="related-story" data-analytics-link="related-story" target="_blank"><strong>Sign up for The Weeds newsletter</strong></a></h3> <p id="n73WFF">Vox’s German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administration’s burst of policymaking. <a href="http://vox.com/weeds-newsletter" data-analytics-viewport="related-story" data-analytics-link="related-story" target="_blank">Sign up to receive our newsletter each Friday</a>.</p> </div> </div></div> <p id="oxAF2A">One problem for a purely social services approach, which can range from job creation to better schools to mental health treatment, is it generally takes longer to work. Problems like poverty, education, and other underlying issues that contribute to crime can take years, or even decades, to truly address.</p> <p id="KFea6K">The impact of police, meanwhile, tends to happen quickly — almost immediately deterring and intercepting would-be criminals with the presence of officers. For policymakers looking for quick action, that’s an important distinction, suggesting that police have to play a role even if other social services are deployed for longer-term solutions.</p> <p id="IyK1o1">“I know people don’t want to hear this, and I empathize with that,” Anna Harvey, a public safety expert at New York University, told me. “[But] as far as the research evidence goes, for short-term responses to increases in homicides, the evidence is strongest for the police-based solutions.”</p> <p id="75dP8p">Part of the explanation is that law enforcement approaches have generally received more research attention than the alternatives. This does not mean that the alternatives to policing don’t work. Some might prove to be even better than the police alone in certain circumstances, but they just haven’t been studied enough to show that yet. </p> <p id="APozkJ">Nor does the evidence suggest that policing approaches are without flaws. There are problems with the research here as well, including that it <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/6/4/21279120/police-brutality-violence-protests-overpolicing-underpolicing" target="_blank">frequently fails to measure</a> the unintended costs and consequences of policing, like the burden placed on communities of color disproportionately targeted and hassled by the police.</p> <p id="AdM34D">Every criminal justice expert I’ve spoken to has also said that more work needs to be done to hold police accountable — and the survey of experts found that most <a href="https://cjexpertpanel.org/surveys/policing-and-public-safety/" target="_blank">agreed</a> more accountability would also improve public safety.</p> <p id="EMpW5R">So the evidence doesn’t indicate that America should continue the punitive, unaccountable model of policing that’s dominated over the past few decades. To the contrary, much of the research supports changes to how policing is done to focus narrowly on problems, city blocks, and even individuals known to disproportionately contribute to crime — contrary to the dragnet approaches, like “<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/21/21144559/mike-bloomberg-stop-and-frisk-criminal-justice-record" target="_blank">stop-and-frisk</a>,” that end up harassing entire communities.</p> <p id="zxQfPf">In short, policing works to reduce crime and violence. But how policing is done can change — and change could even make policing more effective for crime-fighting while addressing some of the problems to which Black Lives Matter protests have called attention.</p> <h3 id="FR9GLD" style="font-size:1.02em">There’s good evidence police reduce crime and violence</h3> <p id="0TjZyP">A 2020 <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28202" target="_blank">study</a> published by the National Bureau of Economic Research concluded, “Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus white victims.”</p> <p id="3g8g2B">A 2005 <a href="https://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/TerrorAlertProofs.pdf" target="_blank">study</a> in the <em>Journal of Law and Economics</em> took advantage of surges in policing driven by terror alerts, finding that high-alert periods, when more officers were deployed, led to significantly less crime.</p> <p id="tbUGdq">A 2016 <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0157223" target="_blank">study</a> published in <em>PLOS One</em> looked at what happened when more New York City police officers were deployed in high-crime areas as part of an effort called “Operation Impact,” concluding these deployments were associated with less crime across the board.</p> <p id="r6SAGw">The question, though, isn’t just whether police work to reduce crime, but how to deploy police to ensure that actually happens. There are proven ways, experts say, to make officers more effective than the traditional mode of policing in the US.</p> <p id="elTluw">Hot spot policing, for example, focuses on problem areas, even down to specific city blocks, with disproportionate levels of crime and violence. Police departments send officers to these places with a goal of deterring further disorder. In some versions of this approach, police don’t even have to take action against people on the block, focusing on surveillance instead. The idea is that the mere presence of police should prevent people from committing crimes — a sort of scarecrow effect.</p> <p id="tYFJe1">A 2019 <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3" target="_blank">review</a> in the <em>Journal of Experimental Criminology </em>looked at<em> </em>dozens of studies and found hot spot policing reduced crime without merely displacing it to other areas, and, in fact, there was evidence of “diffusion” in which crime-fighting benefits actually spread to surrounding areas. The review relied on several strong studies, including randomized controlled trials (generally the gold standard of research), suggesting that the findings were based on solid ground.</p> <p id="FznlGy">Another approach, problem-oriented policing, homes in on a chronic issue — say, shootings in a community — and brings together local resources and agencies, beyond the police, to address that problem. This uses a “scanning, analysis, response, assessment” model, also known as “SARA,” that detects the problem, analyzes the solutions, executes a response, and evaluates those efforts to iterate on them. The goal is not just to treat the problem in the short term but hopefully cure it in the longer term. Depending on the specific problem and the ensuing analysis, police might play a major role or more of a supplementary one.</p> <p id="p4I4gH">A 2020 <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cl2.1089" target="_blank">review of the evidence</a> from the Campbell Collaboration, which conducts policy research reviews, estimated that problem-oriented policing produces a nearly 34 percent reduction in crime and disorder relative to control groups. This was based on a few fairly strong studies, including randomized controlled trials — suggesting the research base here is, like hot spot policing, on strong footing. </p> <p id="qGTBvx">One strategy that’s drawn a lot of media attention, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/12/20679091/thomas-abt-bleeding-out-urban-gun-violence-book-review" target="_blank">including at Vox</a>, is focused deterrence. With this strategy, police focus on specific individuals and organizations, particularly gangs, and deliver a clear message: You must stop engaging in violent or criminal activity, and the community will provide resources to make that easier, or the police will come down on you with serious charges. As part of this, the police tend to partner with other groups in and out of government to provide a carrot — job training, education, government benefits, and so on — to help people get out of a criminal life along with a stick in the threat of punishment. Both the carrot and stick, experts said, are crucial to the idea.</p> <p id="aRf0Lh">As a 2019 <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cl2.1051" target="_blank">review of the evidence</a> from the Campbell Collaboration found, the studies focused on deterrence are largely positive. The problem, the review cautioned, is these studies tend to be of lower quality — there still are no randomized controlled trials, as far as I can tell, on the strategy as a whole. </p> <p id="TsS1vB">Given that lower-quality research in criminal justice tends to find more favorable results for the studied intervention, the results are promising but should be taken with some caution. “My personal view is we just don’t know if [focused deterrence] works,” Jennifer Doleac, director of the Justice Tech Lab, told me, acknowledging that other experts disagree.</p> <h3 id="Z2qjEF" style="font-size:1.02em">The research on police isn’t perfect</h3> <p id="aR5upC">A big issue with all of these strategies is that they can fall apart as a result of shifting leadership and priorities. Trying something different from a more traditional model of policing requires a strong commitment from those at the top. Princeton sociologist Pat Sharkey, who’s studied policing, went so far as to tell me that “passionate, competent, well-funded leadership is way more important than the specifics of any particular model.”</p> <p id="HmgKGi">Another major problem with many of these studies, noted in a <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24928/proactive-policing-effects-on-crime-and-communities" target="_blank">report</a> on proactive policing by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, is that they often don’t measure the costs of policing — not just the financial costs, but the burden police can often place on a community.</p> <p id="8FOeve">For example, the NBER study that concluded each cop leads to a reduction in homicides also found more officers lead to “more arrests for low-level ‘quality-of-life’ offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate burden for Black Americans.” That highlights one of the main criticisms of police raised by movements like Black Lives Matter: that officers harass people, particularly those of color, over minor problems, and those incidents can escalate to police killings — as was true in the deaths of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/12/3/7327745/eric-garner-grand-jury-decision" target="_blank">Eric Garner</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2020/5/27/21271667/george-floyd-death-police-kneed-in-the-neck" target="_blank">George Floyd</a>.</p> <p id="n2Ku2a">This matters for the effectiveness of police at combating crime. If a policing strategy reduces crime and violence but also causes a community backlash due to a sentiment of widespread mistreatment, that approach is likely unsustainable. It could even make crime worse: If a community backlash is strong enough, people will stop cooperating with the police. They may even believe they can no longer trust the law and turn to violence instead of the police to settle their own problems. (This is <a href="https://www.vox.com/22578430/murder-crime-2020-2021-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">one potential cause</a> of murder spikes over the last year and over 2015 to 2016.)</p> <p id="HPCUnT">So even if, say, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/21/21144559/mike-bloomberg-stop-and-frisk-criminal-justice-record" target="_blank">New York City’s aggressive stop-and-frisk strategy</a> was successful at reducing crime — though at least <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07418825.2012.712152#.Ugoz6mTXi0I" target="_blank">some research</a> found it wasn’t — it also inspired a significant backlash, a bevy of legal challenges, and protests. Those costs have to be weighed with the benefits.</p> <p id="0BErTa">That’s why the discussion among experts isn’t just whether police can reduce murders but how to use police most effectively. Many believe there is a way to maximize the benefits of police — the homicide reduction — without as many, if any, of the downsides. But that would likely require tapping into approaches that focus on specific hot spots, problems, or individuals that disproportionately contribute to crime or violence instead of casting a wide net that hassles and burdens entire communities.</p> <p id="QspcBS">To put it another way: Evaluating police work, from stops to more aggressive actions, is nuanced, requiring a comprehensive look at the effects on a community. “Stops can be good or bad,” Aaron Chalfin, a criminologist at the University of Pennsylvania, told me. “People on the left think [all stops] are bad; people on the right think they’re good. And it’s not that at all.”</p> <h3 id="6dYaOl" style="font-size:1.02em">The evidence on alternatives to police is weak</h3> <p id="gFrd3J">The potential harms of policing are why people want other approaches to begin with: What if there’s an alternative to policing — one with the upsides of law enforcement but none or at least fewer of the downsides?</p> <p id="WSGjcq">Unfortunately, there’s little evidence for such an approach yet.</p> <p id="GbjDvA">One of the problems, as noted by researchers like <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JACPR-02-2021-0576/full/html" target="_blank">Caterina Roman</a> and a 2020 <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/" target="_blank">report</a> by the John Jay College of Criminal Justice Research and Evaluation Center, is that there just isn’t as much research into alternatives to police as there is research on the police. The John Jay report argued websites like <a href="http://CrimeSolutions.gov" target="_blank">CrimeSolutions.gov</a>, which many levels of government rely on, favor policing approaches “because studies of policing interventions (i.e., hotspots policing and focused deterrence) are strongly supported by public and private funding bodies.”</p> <p id="c9aD2B">Roman was more blunt in an <a href="https://www.hfg.org/conversations/you-can-reduce-violence-but-harm-people-a-conversation-with-caterina-roman/" target="_blank">interview</a> with the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation’s Greg Berman: “I think what’s not understood is that we don’t have good evidence on prevention, because we don’t research prevention.” That’s in part a function of researchers’ interest in policing over alternatives but also due to ease of access — policing strategies are just more prevalent around the world than prevention approaches.</p> <p id="kzf3fC">Still, there’s some research into alternatives. One widely publicized approach, violence interrupters, uses locally trusted community liaisons — typically people who previously were part of gangs or took part in criminal activities — to break up conflicts before they escalate into violence. An <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/movies/the-interrupters-a-documentary-by-steve-james-review.html" target="_blank">award-winning documentary</a> threw support behind the idea, and President Joe Biden’s administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/07/fact-sheet-more-details-on-the-biden-harris-administrations-investments-in-community-violence-interventions/" target="_blank">has shown support for it</a>.</p> <p id="1srjDt">But the research on interrupters <a href="https://www.vox.com/22622363/police-violence-interrupters-cure-violence-research-study" target="_blank">ranges from weak to disappointing</a>. A 2015 <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122509" target="_blank">review of the evidence</a> published in the <em>Annual Review of Public Health</em> looked at a handful of studies on the model in several American cities. None of the studies had fully positive results. The best result, in Chicago, indicated that the approach perhaps produced positive effects for shootings in four of seven evaluation sites — barely better than a coin flip. One program, in Pittsburgh, was so ineffective that it “appeared to be associated with an increase in rates of monthly aggravated assaults and gun assaults” in some neighborhoods.</p> <p id="tLK2g8">The 2020 John Jay <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/" target="_blank">report</a> was a bit more positive on interrupters but ultimately concluded the findings were “mixed.” The studies conducted so far are low-quality, with no randomized controlled trials completed to date. “It’s concerning,” Harvey, who helped write the John Jay report, told me. “It really is an example of weak evidence.”</p> <p id="oiHnaq">There are some approaches to crime and violence with stronger evidence behind them, including <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28373" target="_blank">summer jobs programs</a>, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20140323" target="_blank">raising the minimum age to drop out of school</a>, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/12/2946.full.pdf" target="_blank">greening vacant lots</a>, <a href="https://urbanlabs.uchicago.edu/projects/crime-lights-study" target="_blank">more streetlights</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/" target="_blank">more drug addiction treatment</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/13/17658028/massachusetts-gun-control-laws-licenses" target="_blank">better gun control</a>, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/12/13/18130843/alcohol-taxes" target="_blank">raising the alcohol tax</a>.</p> <p id="1qqON1">But these other approaches were all evaluated in a world where police exist, so even the positive research can’t demonstrate that these are necessarily true alternatives to police.</p> <p id="NS4rSR">Another issue is non-police interventions tend to require a longer-term view rather than promising to reduce crime, especially violent crime, quickly. These interventions help address the root causes of crime and violence, from poverty to drug addiction. But it takes time to lift people and places from poor conditions, hence studies on alternatives producing results over months or years. Policing approaches, meanwhile, tend to produce effects within weeks or months, since it turns out people can be deterred from crime or violence quite quickly once officers are deployed on a block.</p> <p id="8W2lJ8">This is why interrupters seemed so promising: By breaking up potentially violent conflicts on the spot, they could have more short-term effects. But that simply hasn’t been proven in the research.</p> <p id="IuqO7f">That said, a real advantage to the alternatives is they don’t come with major downsides. If a policing approach fails to reduce crime, it can still produce a huge burden on a community through more incarceration and everyday harassment by officers. If an interrupter approach fails, at least no one was directly hurt in the process, though there is a potential opportunity cost if the program crowds out more successful approaches.</p> <p id="mLIXzg">“We know Cure Violence [interrupters] are unlikely to do dramatic harm,” Doleac said. “But focused deterrence, if it backfires, could be very bad.”</p> <p id="VI0SUB">In fact, the alternatives often come with other benefits. Even if raising the school dropout age doesn’t reduce crime, it can still keep kids in school. Even if drug addiction treatment doesn’t cut crime, it still helps people overcome addiction. And so on.</p> <p id="X85txy">Ultimately, it’s that lack of harm that makes the alternatives to policing worth trying and investigating. Maybe these experiments will produce a fantastic method for fighting crime in the end. If not, at least no one was hurt and maybe some were helped in another way.</p> <p id="00Z0LE">But, at least for now, there’s no good evidence that the alternatives can replace the police, Meanwhile, policing has strong evidence suggesting it really can work to cut crime and violence.</p> <p id="iFz58Z">“The idea that we can reduce the violence we’ve been seeing without any use of the police is not evidence-based; it’s an aspiration, and it’s a high-risk idea,” Chalfin said. “A balanced portfolio feels like the lowest-risk strategy to me.”</p> <div> <hr class="p-entry-hr"> <p><strong><a href="http://vox.com/pages/support-now?itm_campaign=default&itm_medium=article&itm_source=article-footer" target="_blank">Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?</a></strong></p> <p> Millions turn to Vox to understand what’s happening in the news. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower through understanding. 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<main id="main" class="site-main" role="main"> <article id="post-19578" class="post-19578 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-arnold-ventures-2020 category-caterina-roman category-evaluation-topics category-jeffrey-butts category-johnjayrec-products category-monographs category-violence-topics category-work-products-by-project tag-community tag-evaluation tag-police tag-research tag-review tag-violence"> <header class="entry-header"> <div> <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/work-products-by-project/arnold-ventures-2020/" target="_blank">Arnold Ventures 2020</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/caterina-roman/" target="_blank">Caterina Roman</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/topics/evaluation-topics/" target="_blank">Evaluation</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/jeffrey-butts/" target="_blank">Jeffrey Butts</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/all-work-products/johnjayrec-products/" target="_blank">JohnJayREC Products</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/all-work-products/monographs/" target="_blank">Monographs</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/topics/violence-topics/" target="_blank">Violence</a>, <a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/category/work-products-by-project/" target="_blank">Work Products by Project</a> </div><!-- .entry-meta --> <h1 style="font-size:1.2em">Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence</h1> <span class="entry-div"></span> <div> <span class="posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2020-11-09T04:00:34-05:00">November 9, 2020</time><time class="updated" datetime="2021-11-22T14:13:37-05:00">November 22, 2021</time></span><span class="byline">by <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/author/johnjayrec/" target="_blank">JohnJayREC</a></span></span> </div><!-- .entry-meta --> </header><!-- .entry-header --> <div> <div> <img src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?fit=720,392&ssl=1" alt="" loading="lazy" data-attachment-id="19692" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/mws20201001/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?fit=3024,1647&ssl=1" data-orig-size="3024,1647" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"1.5","credit":"","camera":"SM-G960F","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1601578117","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.3","iso":"400","shutter_speed":"0.1","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="mws20201001" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?fit=300,163&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?fit=720,392&ssl=1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?w=3024&ssl=1 3024w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=300,163&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=1500,817&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=150,82&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=768,418&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=1536,837&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=2048,1115&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?resize=720,392&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?w=2160&ssl=1 2160w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/mws20201001.jpg?fit=720,392&ssl=1&is-pending-load=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </div><!-- .post-thumbnail --> <blockquote> <p style="text-align: center;">REPORT SUBMITTED TO ARNOLD VENTURES BY THE JOHN JAY COLLEGE RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP ON PREVENTING AND REDUCING COMMUNITY VIOLENCE</p> </blockquote> <p><span style="color: #ffffff;">–</span></p> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Contents</strong></span></h2> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#summary" target="_blank">Executive Summary</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#introduction" target="_blank">Introduction</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#framing" target="_blank">Framing the Agenda</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#major" target="_blank">Major Strategies</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#recommendations" target="_blank">Recommendations</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#about" target="_blank">About This Report</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#members" target="_blank">Members of the Advisory Group</a></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/06/av2020/#references" target="_blank">References</a></strong></p> <p> </p> <p style="text-align: center;">_________________</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AV20201109_rev.pdf" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="17334" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2018/05/24/databit201801/button_opendoc_hires/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?fit=135,51&ssl=1" data-orig-size="135,51" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?fit=135,51&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?fit=135,51&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?resize=135,51&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?resize=135,51&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="17334" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2018/05/24/databit201801/button_opendoc_hires/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?fit=135,51&ssl=1" data-orig-size="135,51" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?fit=135,51&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?fit=135,51&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/button_opendoc_hires.png?resize=135,51&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p style="text-align: center;">_________________</p> <p> </p> <h2 id="summary" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Executive Summary</strong></span></h2> <p>Arnold Ventures asked the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice to review and summarize research on policies and programs known to reduce community violence without relying on police. To accomplish this goal, the Research and Evaluation Center assembled a diverse group of academic consultants across the fields of criminology, social and behavioral sciences, public health, epidemiology, law, and public policy. The group met several times during the summer of 2020 to produce an accessible synthesis of research evidence. Key questions were:</p> <ul> <li>Can communities ensure the health and security of residents without depending on law enforcement,</li> <li>What is the strongest research evidence to aid in the selection of violence-reduction strategies,</li> <li>How can community leaders and funding organizations like Arnold Ventures draw upon existing evidence while building even better evidence, and</li> <li>How can funding organizations use this report to elevate discussions about violence, improve outcomes in communities affected by violence, and help local and national partners to identify evidence-based interventions that are ready to be scaled.</li> </ul> <p>The consultants used a broad lens to define community violence as the type of interpersonal violence that occurs in public places, but they considered the personal and structural antecedents of violence as well. By identifying the precursors of violence and emphasizing both their practical salience and theoretical relevance, the group sought to identify the most useful evidence for preventing and reducing community violence.</p> <p>This report represents the consultants’ best advice for funding organizations and community leaders, but it is not a technical synthesis of research or a meta-analysis of the most rigorous studies. (There are sources for that information already, see <strong><a href="https://crimesolutions.ojp.gov/" target="_blank" target="_blank">CrimeSolutions.gov</a></strong>, a site hosted for the U.S. Department of Justice.)</p> <p>This report summarizes the collective judgment of an experienced group of researchers who were free to consider all evidence, unconstrained by the conventional priority given to randomized controlled trials (RCT). The most rigorous studies in the field of community violence are RCTs, but many focus on individual behaviors only, failing to account for the full social context giving rise to those behaviors, including social and economic inequities, institutionalized discrimination, and the racial and class biases of the justice system itself.</p> <p>To synthesize evidence in an inclusive manner, one must be aware of social context and prioritize solutions that help to address structural impediments while still providing immediate interventions to reduce violence. Unless research evidence is considered in this context, potentially effective strategies may be overlooked simply because they target community-level change rather than individual change, and for that reason are difficult to evaluate and the research literature to back them up is inevitably less rigorous and less prominent.</p> <p>With these goals in mind, the members of the research group worked collaboratively to identify, translate, and summarize evidence for strategies to reduce violence without police. To identify the most important and potentially effective strategies, the research group placed a high value on programs designed with a clear theoretical rationale and outcomes at specific levels—i.e. individuals, families, neighborhoods (including blocks and street segments), or larger geopolitical boundaries, including cities and counties. Recognizing that evaluation research tends to favor programs aimed at individual behaviors, the group made an effort to include strategies focused on community-level change with the potential to achieve durable, scalable effects.</p> <p>The research advisory group also focused on the time frame for intervention. Some effective methods for preventing violence take years to reach their maximum effect. Some well-known strategies generate outcomes in a year or two, but that doesn’t make them the best ideas. The research advisory group resisted a systematic bias favoring short-term interventions.</p> <p>The group identified seven evidence-backed strategies:</p> <p><strong>Improve the Physical Environment</strong><br> Place-based interventions that are structural, scalable, and sustainable have been shown to reduce violence and many strategies are economically viable. Increasing the prevalence of green space in a neighborhood, improving the quality of neighborhood buildings and housing, and creating public spaces with ample lighting suitable for pedestrian traffic can be cost-effective ways of decreasing community violence.</p> <p><strong>Strengthen Anti-Violence Social Norms and Peer Relationships</strong><br> Programs such as Cure Violence and Advance Peace view violence as a consequence of social norms spread by peer networks and social relationships. Outreach workers, a key part of these interventions, form supportive and confidential relationships with individuals at the highest risk of becoming perpetrators or victims of violence, connecting them with social resources and working to shift their behavior and attitudes toward non-violence. Evaluations suggest these programs may help reduce neighborhood violence.</p> <p><strong>Engage and Support Youth</strong><br> Young people, especially young males, account for a disproportionate amount of community violence. Any effort to reduce violence must involve a special focus on youth. Strategies that add structure and opportunities for youth have been shown to decrease their involvement in violent crime. Youth employment, job mentorship and training, educational supports, and behavioral interventions can improve youth outcomes and reduce violence. Some of these strategies require relatively costly individualized therapeutic interventions, but others focused on work and school have been associated with cost-efficient reductions in violence.</p> <p><strong>Reduce Substance Abuse</strong><br> Numerous studies show that interventions to reduce harmful substance abuse are associated with lower rates of community violence, and not all strategies involve treatment. Policies to enforce age limits on alcohol access, restrict alcohol sales in certain areas or during specific times, as well as increasing access to treatment have been shown to decrease violent crime.</p> <p><strong>Mitigate Financial Stress</strong><br> Financial stability and economic opportunities help to reduce crime. Short-term assistance, especially when coupled with behavioral therapy programs, appears to affect rates of violence and the timing of financial aid plays a role in community safety. People experiencing negative income shocks are less inclined to behave violently when they receive timely financial assistance.</p> <p><strong>Reduce the Harmful Effects of the Justice Process</strong><br> The judicial process must be viewed as legitimate for community members to engage effectively with law enforcement in reducing violence. Research suggests that community safety is supported when justice systems operate with transparency, openness, consistency, and trust, and when police departments are willing to address complaints from the community.</p> <p><strong>Confront the Gun Problem</strong><br> Implementing comprehensive and uniform gun policies can decrease the use of firearms in violent acts. Violence has been reduced by policy mechanisms that limit access to guns and increase restrictions for individuals with violent crime backgrounds, reduce access to guns by young people, impose waiting periods, and increase required training.</p> <blockquote> <p style="text-align: center;">RECOMMENDATIONS</p> </blockquote> <ul> <li>Behavior responds to situational and environmental influences. In addition to changing behavior one person at a time, communities should create physical environments that reduce violence with cost-effective, place-based interventions that are structural, scalable, and sustainable.</li> <li>Violence can be reduced by increasing pro-social bonds and anti-violence norms across communities, especially when the message comes from community-based programs staffed by familiar and credible messengers.</li> <li>Violence prevention and reduction strategies must include a priority on young people, focusing on protective factors as well as risk factors.</li> <li>Violence prevention must include a focus on alcohol distribution, drug decriminalization, and treatment.</li> <li>Violence is more prevalent where residents face severe and chronic financial stress. Timely and targeted financial assistance can help to reduce rates of violence.</li> <li>To maximize the benefits and reduce the potential harms of the formal justice system, communities should invest in strategies designed to increase the objectivity, neutrality, and transparency of the justice process.</li> <li>Keeping firearms away from people inclined to use them for violence is challenging given widespread gun ownership in the United States, but it remains an essential part of any effort to reduce community violence.</li> <li>Effective prevention should include short-term strategies with rapid returns, but ignoring long-term investments increases community risk.</li> <li>To generate reliable evidence, funding entities should place a priority on research involving significant and sustained community engagement.</li> <li>Assessing the strength of research evidence is a technical skill. Evaluations of violence reduction efforts should involve teams of experts from a variety of fields, and advanced degrees are not enough. Experts in evaluation methods, statistics, and causal inference are essential partners.</li> <li>Prioritizing intervention strategies based simply on the results and methodological rigor of research published in academic journals is dangerously naive and harmful. Strategies to reduce violence should reflect an appropriate balance of evidentiary support with theoretical salience and practical viability.</li> <li>Many strategies for reducing violence require direct contact with human subjects for interviews and surveys. Funding entities should continue to invest in these studies, but more effort should be made to design cost-effective evaluations using pre-existing, administrative data from varying sectors, including schools, hospitals, housing, taxes, employment records, commercial sales, business regulations, etc. Researchers and funders should collaborate in designing data analytic projects and natural experiments that test a wide array of policies and programs for their potential to reduce violence.</li> </ul> <h2 id="introduction" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Introduction</strong></span></h2> <p>Researchers have conducted hundreds of studies looking for effective ways to prevent and reduce violence, but the knowledge base is far from complete, especially as it relates to one important question: are there ways to prevent violence without relying on the police? The obvious answer is “yes.” Policing has never been the primary explanation for obviously varying levels of community safety. Residents of wealthy areas do not experience the intense police surveillance and enforcement imposed on poor neighborhoods. Yet, rates of violence are reliably lower in wealthy communities.</p> <p>What are we to make from this simple observation? Are wealthy areas relatively safe from violence because the police already finished their work in those neighborhoods, or are other factors having nothing to do with law enforcement actually responsible for low rates of violence? Can those factors be replicated in non-wealthy areas affected by community violence? What are the most practical ways to prevent and reduce violence without police? Have those strategies been evaluated? Which interventions are backed by rigorous research?</p> <p>Researchers have produced many studies of violence reduction strategies, but this does not mean contemporary policies and programs are always based on evidence from those studies. Searching the large volume of available research can be an obstacle for funders and community leaders. Many studies are hidden behind the paywalls of academic journals. It is also not a simple matter to read and comprehend evaluation research. Researchers often use a style of writing and presentation that can be impenetrable to non-researchers. The path from research evidence to actionable policies and programs is far from simple.</p> <p>Arnold Ventures asked the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center (JohnJayREC) to review the research evidence for violence reduction strategies that do not rely on law enforcement. The scan was carried out by an expert group of researchers from the fields of public policy, criminology, law, public health, and social science. The members of the research group worked collaboratively to identify, translate, and summarize the most important and actionable studies.</p> <h2 id="framing" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Framing the Agenda</strong></span></h2> <p>Before summarizing the state of research evidence for non-policing strategies to reduce community violence, the term community violence must be clarified. This is more difficult than it may appear. From a purely legal perspective, the term “violence” is used quite liberally. Merely threatening another person with bodily harm would be considered a violent offense in many states (i.e. simple assault or misdemeanor assault).</p> <p>To the average citizen, the term “violent crime” describes serious harm. “Community violence” suggests the type of violent harm that a resident may encounter during the course of a normal day, whether in their own home or out in the neighborhood, and whether they are the intended victim of a violent act or merely an incidental victim or bystander. This would include homicides, shootings, violent robberies, serious assaults, and sexual assaults. It would not include suicides and it would exclude many routine interpersonal conflicts that are not seriously violent (i.e. loud arguments). The limits of this conventional definition are addressed later in this discussion.</p> <p>Given a conventional understanding of community violence, the next issue is how to prevent and reduce it? Is policing sufficient? Comprehensive efforts to reduce community violence may always include a role for law enforcement, but a disproportionate amount of research on violence reduction focuses on policing and the formal justice system, although non-policing interventions have demonstrated promising results and positive returns on investment. The key questions are, which non-policing interventions are most promising and how do we know? Several important points help to frame the research described below.</p> <p>First, if one searches for research on violence prevention it is immediately apparent that evaluations of policing interventions are more common than non-policing strategies. A search of community-based violence interventions on CrimeSolutions.gov using the filters for strong evidence (“effective”), topic (“crime and crime prevention”), and setting (“high crime neighborhood”) yielded only 17 programs. Of those 17 programs, 14 involved the police as either the lead agency or a key partner, and at least 5 of the 14 were based on the “focused deterrence” law enforcement strategy. Changing the filter for evidence rating to “promising” yielded 34 programs, again with the overwhelming majority being police programs and those related to focused deterrence.</p> <p>Websites like <strong><a href="https://crimesolutions.ojp.gov/" target="_blank" target="_blank">CrimeSolutions.gov</a></strong> are used heavily by state and local governments without sufficient resources to conduct their own evaluations. The information they provide, however, is heavily skewed toward policing programs because studies of policing interventions (i.e. hotspots policing and focused deterrence) are strongly supported by public and private funding bodies. For instance, the large number of evaluations of focused deterrence programs stems in part from years of Federal funding in support of the Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) portfolio of law enforcement programs, which originated in 2001 and mandated (or, in some years encouraged) the involvement of research partners (Roman et al. 2020). In the early years of PSN, federal solicitations emphasized the focused deterrence model as a priority for funding. Similarly, the federal Bureau of Justice Assistance provided hundreds of millions of dollars for community-level violence reduction over the last two decades through the Byrne Criminal Justice Innovation portfolio, now known as “Innovations in Community-Based Crime Reduction” (CBCR). These grants, most of which involved a policing partner, also mandated the participation of research partners. Thus, it is not surprising that a search of recent literature produces many examples of police-driven or police-affiliated strategies for preventing and reducing violence.</p> <p>Putting aside policing interventions, a search of the literature finds another large group of studies testing the effects of social services for children and their families (Weisburd et al. 2017). This may be the case because evaluating family programs is relatively easy. Researchers can establish control over program implementation and follow-up periods can be relatively quick.</p> <p>Of course, the easiest and quickest answers are rarely the best answers. Perhaps it would be just as effective to focus on schools, neighborhood networks, communities, and the physical characteristics of communities. Other interventions may reduce violence by improving labor markets, economic opportunities, housing quality, gun laws, and the prevalence of substance abuse and mental health issues. Even broader interventions may be able to affect community violence by changing cultural beliefs and attitudes about racism, gender bias, and class differentials.</p> <p>Violence reduction interventions other than policing have been successful in some places and under some conditions, but which strategies can be expanded and replicated across communities? Are some ideas ready to be scaled up and scaled out? Replication is a critical issue (Lösel 2018). As every evaluation researcher knows, public officials tend to believe the problems of their communities are unique to their communities. Indeed, some violence problems could be site-specific, but interventions to reduce violence should be constructed from general principles to ensure effectiveness and facilitate replication.</p> <p>Community leaders must be able to identify strong, theoretically informed strategies with proven track records, know how to implement them, and know whether they can be modified in any way before making them a permanent part of their approach to violence prevention. The evidence base for violence prevention is strengthened when outcome evaluations are backed up by process evaluations that investigate the ideal conditions for program implementation and use rigorous methods to identify the required components of interventions versus those that may be modified or even disregarded. Before an intervention is chosen for implementation, research partners should also help with “problem analysis,” an organized effort to identify exactly what an intervention is designed to achieve and whether it is the right solution for the immediate problem.</p> <p>Researchers testing interventions focused on individual behaviors must also try to identify whether strategies are equally effective across the demographic spectrum—i.e. differences by age, race, ethnicity, sex, and gender. Knowing whether programs are equally beneficial for all persons and places is often just as important as the design, implementation, and management of programs (Windsor et al. 2015).</p> <p>Moreover, individuals live in neighborhoods, located within cities and counties, all of which are contained within states or provinces. Evaluation evidence must be sensitive to the externalities of a community’s social and political environment and how they influence the implementation and effectiveness of intervention strategies (Aisenberg and Herrenkohl 2008). Developing a deeper understanding of how different contexts influence outcomes is important for understanding violence prevention and violence reduction, whether at the individual level or the community level.</p> <p>The time frame for intervention is another critical issue. Some of the most effective methods for preventing violence could take years to reach their maximum effect, but the research spotlight does not always linger long enough to see the benefits (Brame et al. 2016). Investments in violence reduction are often short term. Due to funding issues and the rush to present findings, many evaluations of violence reduction rely on outcomes that are measurable within a year or two. Political leaders change, social contexts evolve, agency priorities shift, and researchers are under constant pressure to publish. A short time horizon may limit the utility of evaluation studies.</p> <p>Finally, the utilization of research suffers from misleading marketing. Policymakers and the public have been told for decades that the “gold standard” of evaluation evidence is the randomized experiment, or randomized controlled trial (RCT). If all questions relevant for policy and practice in the prevention of violence were amenable to randomized studies, this would be an admirable position. In many areas of social policy, however, some important questions cannot be answered with RCT studies due to logistical, financial, and ethical concerns. This is especially true in the case of violence prevention and violence reduction at the community level. Randomized designs are a valuable resource for providing precise answers to specific questions, but it is also important to ask the right questions and only then select the best method of answering them (Butts and Roman 2018).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19651" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images03/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?fit=1502,1816&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1502,1816" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images03" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?fit=248,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?fit=720,870&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=500,605&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=847,1024&ssl=1 847w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=248,300&ssl=1 248w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=124,150&ssl=1 124w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=768,929&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=1270,1536&ssl=1 1270w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=720,871&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?w=1502&ssl=1 1502w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=500,605&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19651" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images03/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?fit=1502,1816&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1502,1816" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images03" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?fit=248,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?fit=720,870&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images03.png?resize=500,605&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h2 id="major" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Major Strategies</strong></span></h2> <p>What exactly is a non-policing approach? How does it work and how long does it take to have an effect? In what contexts or circumstances could it work? Most importantly, is it feasible and affordable as a mainstream practice? These questions should be answered with research evidence and not simply politics or public opinion.</p> <p>Policymakers and the public instinctively embrace a classic deterrence perspective, or a belief that crime is most effectively prevented when criminal sanctions for illegal acts are delivered with certainty, swiftness, and appropriate severity. This is thought to apply at the level of individuals in the case of “specific deterrence,” and at the aggregate or population level for “general deterrence.”</p> <p>If deterrence were entirely sufficient to prevent violence and ensure public safety, the United States would undoubtedly enjoy one of the lowest rates of community violence in the world. The U.S. drastically expanded its already substantial investments in policing and prisons during the past 50 years (Platt 2018). Effective violence prevention, however, involves strategies beyond deterrence. It requires investments in communities and organizations other than police and the justice system.</p> <p>Non-policing approaches to violence prevention can produce significant benefits without the attendant harms of policing and punishment. Funding organizations should invest in a broad range of research to build a strong evidence base for communities seeking effective approaches to reduce violence. The following sections review the state of research evidence for some of the most promising strategies:</p> <ul> <li>Improve the Physical Environment</li> <li>Strengthen Anti-Violence Social Norms and Peer Relationships</li> <li>Engage and Support Youth</li> <li>Reduce Substance Abuse</li> <li>Mitigate Financial Stress</li> <li>Reduce the Harmful Effects of the Justice Process</li> <li>Confront the Gun Problem</li> </ul> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Improve the Physical Environment</h3> <p>The relationship of violence to poverty and inequality is well documented. It is not surprising that many violence interventions focus on people and behaviors associated with social and economic disadvantages. But, are individualized services the best approach? Can neighborhoods themselves be the focus of interventions to prevent and reduce violence?</p> <p>A growing body of scientific evidence with a long theoretical tradition indicates that structural, place-based modifications may significantly decrease violence. Strategies focusing on the “root causes” of violence—especially accumulated structures of neighborhood poverty—can be implemented in specific geographic areas in ways that help to counter even decades of disinvestment, neglect, racist policies, and indeed violence. By reshaping certain aspects of the physical environment—e.g., fixing abandoned buildings, greening vacant lots, and lighting public spaces—policymakers can reduce opportunities for violence, prevent the possession of illegal guns, lower rates of gun violence, and create sustained co-benefits such as reductions in stress, fear, and common nuisances.</p> <p>The notion that crime can be prevented by improving physical space inspired an entire branch of research known as Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design, or CPTED (Cozens et al. 2005). Broadly, CPTED builds on Jane Jacob’s idea that the physical design of streets and public spaces can encourage the active guardianship of those spaces, thereby promoting informal neighborhood social control and reducing potential opportunities for crime (MacDonald et al. 2019). Epidemiologists and city planners, borrowing from decades of thinking on maximizing and sustaining interventions to improve the health and safety of whole populations and not simply subsets of high-risk individuals, also independently developed a series of community-engaged, place-based interventions that recognize violence as a public health crisis (Frieden 2010; Rose 2001).</p> <p>These interventions can function like other systemic public health interventions, such as the chlorination of water to prevent infectious diseases and the restructuring of roadways to prevent traffic crashes. Of course, city planners must be careful to avoid using CPTED as a justification for severe physical modifications that increase resident anxiety and hinder collective efficacy (Cozens et al. 2005). Reliable evidence for well-considered place-based interventions, however, indicates that interventions that are structural, scalable, and sustainable may help to reduce community violence (Branas and MacDonald 2014).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19652" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images04/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?fit=1504,1100&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1504,1100" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images04" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?fit=300,219&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?fit=720,527&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=500,366&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=1400,1024&ssl=1 1400w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=300,219&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=150,110&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=768,562&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=720,527&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?w=1504&ssl=1 1504w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=500,366&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19652" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images04/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?fit=1504,1100&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1504,1100" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images04" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?fit=300,219&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?fit=720,527&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images04.png?resize=500,366&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h5><em>Green Space</em></h5> <p>One of the most obvious place-based interventions to reduce crime and violence without policing is the creation of green space, such as adding parks, planting trees, and revitalizing vacant lots. Nature is believed to reduce crime by having a neuro-therapeutic effect that reduces aggression and creates an inviting space for local residents to congregate and become more invested in their relationships with each other and their surroundings (Kuo and Sullivan 2001b). Natural experiments in Chicago demonstrated that increased greening and greater tree canopy in public housing areas were associated with significantly less violent crime and reports of aggression by residents (Kuo and Sullivan 2001a; Kuo and Sullivan 2001b). Using data from Philadelphia, another study found evidence of an inverse relationship between tree cover and gun assaults, especially in low-income areas (Kondo et al. 2017a). Taking advantage of an exogenous shock (i.e. an infestation of emerald ash borer beetles that decimated trees across the Cincinnati, Ohio area), another natural experiment estimated that tree loss was associated with significant increases in simple assaults, felony assaults, and violent crimes (Kondo et al. 2017b). A study conducted in Connecticut, on the other hand, found a null relationship between tree planting and crime, but this may have been driven by selection effects determining which neighborhoods succeeded in their tree-planting efforts (Locke et al. 2017).</p> <p>Multiple cities have implemented straightforward and highly scalable programs to revitalize vacant lots. The creation of small “pocket parks” has been evaluated with a mixture of epidemiologic randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies, and ethnographic participant-observer research, showing that “cleaning and greening” interventions signal to residents that their communities are investing in the neighborhood and closely monitoring the newly greened spaces. Greening vacant lots may directly intervene to prevent gun assaults since vacant and overgrown lots are known to be havens for the storage and disposal of illegal guns as well as inviting violence and other unwanted behaviors along with abandoned cars and other large trash items (Branas et al. 2011).</p> <p>One decade long quasi-experimental study in Philadelphia showed that greening vacant lots was associated with consistent and significant reductions in gun assaults and resident stress citywide (Branas et al. 2011). A randomized controlled trial in Philadelphia assigned vacant lots into clean and green treatment and control groups, finding that “removing trash and debris, grading the land, planting new grass using a hydroseeding method that can quickly cover large areas of land, planting a small number of trees to create a park-like setting, installing low wooden perimeter fences, and then regularly maintaining the newly treated lot” reduced residents’ safety concerns when going outside their homes by 58 percent, while decreasing crime overall by 9 percent, gun violence by 17 percent, and police-reported nuisances by 28 percent (Branas et al. 2018). Another study found that similar interventions significantly increased residents’ feelings of safety (Garvin et al. 2013), and that simply mowing the grass and cleaning up trash significantly reduced shootings by 9 percent (Moyer et al. 2019).</p> <p>Research in several cities shows that community-led initiatives to maintain vacant lots can decrease violence. In a quasi-experimental study in Flint, Michigan, street segments that voluntarily engaged in a “Clean & Green” program experienced nearly 40 percent fewer assaults and violent crimes compared with street segments that did not maintain their vacant lots (Heinze et al. 2018). A quasi-experimental study in Youngstown, Ohio analyzed the effects of “Lots of Green,” an initiative focused on cleaning up vacant lots and growing plants while inviting area residents to propose new uses for the empty space. The first intervention significantly reduced burglaries while the proposal process alone was associated with a significant reduction in overall violent crime (Kondo et al. 2016). Given the low cost of such remediations and the high costs of violent crime outcomes such as gun violence, every dollar spent on cleaning and greening interventions may return hundreds of dollars in public safety benefits (Branas et al. 2016).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19654" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images05/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?fit=1509,1140&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1509,1140" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images05" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?fit=300,227&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?fit=720,544&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=720,544&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=1355,1024&ssl=1 1355w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=300,227&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=150,113&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=768,580&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=720,544&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?w=1509&ssl=1 1509w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=720,544&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19654" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images05/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?fit=1509,1140&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1509,1140" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images05" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?fit=300,227&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?fit=720,544&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images05.png?resize=720,544&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h5><em>Housing and Buildings</em></h5> <p>Another widely studied place-based intervention targets housing and other types of buildings. The condition and quality of built structures affect the overall safety of neighborhoods as well as the experiences of individuals residing within them. From the impact of lead paint to perimeter defenses, to whether a building is simply abandoned or in disrepair, multiple factors have been linked to crime and violence.</p> <p>One aspect of housing receiving considerable attention from researchers is the mounting evidence of the relationship between lead exposure and subsequent violence. Measuring blood lead levels of 125,000 preschool boys born in Rhode Island between 1990 and 2004, one study found that increased blood lead levels were significantly associated with delinquency (Aizer and Currie 2019). A Swedish study examining long-term outcomes from reforms that phased out leaded gasoline found that lead exposure affected noncognitive skills, which in turn affected individual probabilities of criminal behavior, especially among males (Grönqvist et al. 2020). Even after children have been exposed to elevated lead levels, interventions to address the behavioral consequences of such exposure could help to reduce subsequent crime and violence (Billings and Schnepel 2018).</p> <p>Abandoned buildings are often focal points for illegal activity, including violence. Interventions targeting vacant and abandoned buildings can decrease neighborhood violence. A quasi-experimental study in Philadelphia found that abandoned building remediations were associated with a 39 percent reduction in firearm assaults and, given the low cost of such remediations, returned hundreds of dollars for every dollar invested in the program (Branas et al. 2016; Kondo et al. 2015). A New York City study found that foreclosures increased violent crime by nearly 6 percent (Ellen et al. 2013), and a study from Pittsburgh found that foreclosed homes left vacant increased violent crime rates in the surrounding area (Cui and Walsh 2015). Multiple studies provide evidence that abandoned and disheveled buildings may signal to the community that illegal activities and violence can proceed unseen and unmonitored.</p> <p>Other studies have examined the impact of demolishing public housing on neighborhood crime. With data on the closure and demolition of roughly 20,000 units of geographically concentrated high-rise public housing in Chicago, Aliprantis and Hartley (2015) found an 86 percent reduction in shots fired in and near areas where high-rises were demolished. The reductions in violent crime in these neighborhoods greatly outweighed any increases in violent crime associated with a displacement effect. Likewise, a quasi-experimental study in Detroit found that building demolitions reduced firearm assaults (Jay et al. 2019). Philadelphia’s “Doors and Windows Ordinance” in January 2011 allowed the city to fine building owners for building openings that were “not covered with a functional door or window on blocks that are more than 80% occupied,” which significantly reduced assaults and gun assaults citywide (Kondo et al. 2015). In this way, the condition and availability of a neighborhood’s physical infrastructure provide opportunities for intervention that can have widespread effects on the incidence of violence.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19655" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images06/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?fit=1502,1567&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1502,1567" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images06" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?fit=288,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?fit=720,751&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=550,574&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=982,1024&ssl=1 982w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=288,300&ssl=1 288w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=144,150&ssl=1 144w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=768,801&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=1472,1536&ssl=1 1472w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=720,751&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?w=1502&ssl=1 1502w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=550,574&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19655" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images06/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?fit=1502,1567&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1502,1567" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images06" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?fit=288,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?fit=720,751&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images06.png?resize=550,574&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h5><em>Place-Based Situational Crime Prevention</em></h5> <p>Crimes are more likely to occur when suitable targets and motivated offenders converge in time and space in the absence of capable guardians. Street robberies, for example, are more likely to occur on dark streets that allow easy access to users of cash machines in locations offering other advantages—e.g., bad lighting or easy egress. Place-based approaches suggest that simple modifications to physical space may reduce the likelihood of crime and violence. A key element of place-based crime prevention is to diminish opportunities for crime by making it “riskier, less rewarding, more difficult, less excusable, or less likely to be provoked” (Welsh and Farrington 2012).</p> <p>Roadway and traffic control enhancements have been shown to increase safety and decrease opportunities for crime. For instance, cul-de-sac streets are safer than other street layouts for preventing auto accidents. Changing the layout of streets has been shown to reduce violent crime (Southworth and Ben-Joseph 2004). The Los Angeles Police Department used traffic barriers to create cul-de-sacs in some neighborhoods to decrease gang violence in the 1990s, an intervention that led to a 20 percent decrease in violent crime within a year of implementation (Lasley 1996). After officials in Dayton, Ohio enacted barriers to turn several local streets into cul-de-sacs, the number of traffic accidents fell 40 percent, overall crime dropped 26 percent, and violent crime decreased by half (Lasley 1996). Street closures have been associated with decreased crime in other studies of high-crime neighborhoods (Welsh and Farrington 2009a).</p> <p>Security cameras and lighting have been found to deter crimes of opportunity, such as burglary and robbery. One study found surveillance cameras were effective at decreasing planned crime: pickpocketing dropped 20 percent and robbery fell 60 percent (Priks 2015). A systematic review found that closed-circuit television (CCTV) surveillance cameras significantly decreased crime by 16 percent in public areas that had them compared with areas that did not, and CCTV reduced crime 51 percent in car parks (Welsh and Farrington 2009b). The benefits of CCTV surveillance, however, are not reliably consistent. Other quasi-experimental studies have not found crime prevention effects (Ratcliffe and Groff 2019).</p> <p>Lighting may be an important factor for reducing crime and fear because it allows better monitoring of spaces. A 2002 systematic review and meta-analysis examining the effect of street lighting on crime found that, across eight American and five British studies reviewed, crimes decreased by 20 percent in experimental areas compared with control areas, and most of the studies included measures of violent crime (Farrington and Welsh 2002).</p> <p>Treating daylight saving time (DST) as an exogenous shock, one natural experiment found the additional light decreased daily cases of robbery by 7 percent and decreased the probability of any robbery by 19 percent, highlighting the importance of ambient light in reducing criminal activity (Doleac and Sanders 2015). Analyzing the discontinuous nature of daylight savings time and its 2007 extension, researchers estimated the extension resulted in a gain of $59 million annually from the avoided social cost of robberies. A recent RCT provided additional evidence for the effect of street lighting on crime by studying the impact of randomly allocated temporary street lights in public housing developments across New York City, finding a 36 percent reduction in night-time outdoor, violent crime after the introduction of lighting (Chalfin et al. 2019).</p> <p>The public safety effects of business improvement districts can also reduce violent crime. Leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the establishment of 30 Los Angeles Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), Cook and MacDonald (2011) found large decreases in violent crime. The social benefits from BID expenditures on security were perhaps 20 times larger than the private expenditures required to establish BIDs. Even reducing traffic congestion can reduce violence. Relying on data about deviations from normal traffic flow in Los Angeles from 2011 to 2015, Beland and Brent (2018) estimated that extreme traffic increases the incidence of family violence.</p> <p>The installation of bulletproof glass may also reduce crime. In New York City, homicides decreased among taxi drivers who installed bulletproof partitions in their cars (Smith 2005). Other mixed methods research, however, suggests the risk of gun violence can be exacerbated by bulletproof glass installed in take-out alcohol outlets (Branas et al. 2009). For situational-based crime prevention to be effective, it is important to understand the specific context of any intended environment before choosing an appropriate and locally acceptable place-based intervention.</p> <p>Policymakers have relied on a variety of quantitative and qualitative studies to formulate place-based violence prevention policies. Cities such as New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and others have appropriated municipal funds in response to the growing body of research supporting the public safety benefits of place-based approaches, especially in historically disinvested neighborhoods. The available evidence—both quantitative and qualitative—underscores the value of place-based structural and environmental improvements for preventing and reducing violence.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19656" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images07/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?fit=1504,1530&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1504,1530" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images07" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?fit=295,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?fit=720,732&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=550,560&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=1007,1024&ssl=1 1007w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=295,300&ssl=1 295w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=147,150&ssl=1 147w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=768,781&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=720,732&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?w=1504&ssl=1 1504w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=550,560&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19656" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images07/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?fit=1504,1530&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1504,1530" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images07" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?fit=295,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?fit=720,732&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images07.png?resize=550,560&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h5><em>Social Consequences of Place</em></h5> <p>Research suggests that place-based interventions may affect violence at least in part through their social consequences. Reducing neighborhood socio-economic segregation through housing policy, for example, could reduce violence. Capitalizing on the quasi-random assignment of refugee immigrants to specific neighborhoods, Damm and Dustmann (2014) found strong evidence that pre-existing rates of violent crime among young people in a neighborhood were associated with increased violent crime convictions of newly assigned male residents.</p> <p>The configuration of school districts may influence the propensity of youth to engage in violent crime. Leveraging the as-if random variation in neighborhood residence along opposite sides of a newly drawn school boundary, Billings et al. (2019) found that, within small neighborhood areas, grouping more disadvantaged students together in the same school increased violence. Youth were more likely to be arrested together. Neighborhood and school segregation tended to increase violence by fostering unwanted social interaction among youth most at risk for violence.</p> <p>Policies that increase the diversity and connectedness of neighborhoods may reduce violence through social mechanisms. Using idiosyncratic variations in social connectedness stemming from patterns of housing relocation that resulted in some people moving away from their home towns, Stuart and Taylor (forthcoming) found that a gain of one standard deviation in social connectedness was associated with a 21 percent decrease in murder in U.S. cities from 1970 to 2009 as well as significantly lower incidences of rape, robbery, and assault. The study suggested greater social connectedness may be related to improved public safety.</p> <p>Reducing neighborhood foreclosures and vacancies may reduce violence. Using geocoded foreclosure and crime data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Cui and Walsh (2015) found that violent crime rates increased by roughly 19 percent when foreclosed homes became vacant, an effect that grew with the length of vacancy. Conversely, supporting the construction of affordable housing may reduce violent crime. An analysis of federal rule variations in determining census tract eligibility for the subsidized construction of low-income housing rental units found that low-income housing development in poor neighborhoods brought significant reductions in violent crime. When scaled by population, robberies and aggravated assaults declined two percent for each development of new low-income rental housing located in an eligible census tract rather than a wealthier neighborhood (Freedman and Owens 2011).</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Strengthen Anti-Violence Social Norms and Peer Relationships</h3> <p>Research is beginning to produce strong evidence for intervention models that see violence as behavior shaped by social norms and the relationships people share with their peer networks. Programs using this approach include Cure Violence based in Illinois and Advance Peace from California. Both programs operate in numerous locations across the country and increasingly around the world. These and similar models rely on two key interventions: community outreach and direct interruption or mediation of neighborhood conflicts by trained people known to the neighborhood and trusted by the residents.</p> <p>Community outreach, sometimes called street outreach, has been well documented in the health field as a strategy for reaching historically marginalized and disenfranchised populations, understanding their barriers to health care, and addressing their health-related needs (Mack et al. 2006). Community outreach begins with the understanding that individuals who are marginalized, “hard to reach,” and at the highest risk for negative health outcomes are also likely to be chronically alienated, disconnected, and distrustful of traditional structures and systems of support (Advance Peace n.d. a; Boag-Munroe and Evangelou 2012). Building relationships with individuals in the community helps staff to identify and address participant needs and to alter unhealthy or negative life trajectories. For those at the highest risk of violence, community outreach may serve as both an immediate and long-term mechanism for desistance from violence.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19700" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images08a/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?fit=1503,1422&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1503,1422" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images08a" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?fit=300,284&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?fit=720,681&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=550,520&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=1082,1024&ssl=1 1082w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=300,284&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=150,142&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=768,727&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=720,681&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?w=1503&ssl=1 1503w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=550,520&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19700" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images08a/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?fit=1503,1422&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1503,1422" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images08a" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?fit=300,284&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?fit=720,681&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08a.png?resize=550,520&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Early efforts to use a form of community outreach for engaging youth and young adults date to the 1800s in the U.S., and by the 1940s many cities were using outreach strategies to work with young gang members, linking them with social services to reduce their involvement in illegal activities and violence (Decker et al. 2008; Goldstein 1993; Spergel and Grossman 1997). Community-based organizations have often used outreach activities to address unmet needs for those most vulnerable to violence and other negative health outcomes (Boston TenPoint Coalition n.d.; Collins 2006; Thomas et al. 1994).</p> <p>Prominent violence prevention strategies–particularly those valuing social and behavioral interventions–have incorporated outreach workers (National Network for Safe Communities, n.d.). Cure Violence from Chicago and Advance Peace in Richmond, California rely on paid outreach workers to develop relationships with individuals at high risk for committing or being victims of violence (Advance Peace n.d. b; Cure Violence Global n.d.). Outreach workers at the United Teen Equality Center (UTEC) in Lowell, Massachusetts strive to build relationships with youth at risk for group-related violence (Frattaroli et al. 2010). The Urban Peace Institute’s Urban Peace Academy provides specialized training for community intervention workers. The program trains gang intervention workers nationwide (Urban Peace Institute n.d.). Similar programs are found across the United States, including ROCA, LIFE Camp, Inc., the Institute for Nonviolence, the City of Oakland’s Department of Violence Prevention, and New York City’s network of more than two dozen programs called the Crisis Management System, coordinated by the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice.</p> <p>Community outreach strategies may vary somewhat in their specific program objectives and implementation tactics. The populations they seek to engage are unlikely to welcome unsolicited attention or to trust outsiders, however, so their approaches also share many characteristics. For one, the programs must be adept at identifying and connecting with the right participants.</p> <p>In the 1990s, Chicago’s Comprehensive Community-Wide Gang Program Model was implemented in multiple communities around the United States. Community engagement via street outreach was a strong component of the model. Outreach workers served as part of an intervention team—the primary service-delivery mechanism. Some communities using the approach even partnered with law enforcement. Intervention teams connected youth with supportive services, established job training programs, and trained youth in filling out job applications, conducting job interviews, and using appropriate interpersonal skills with employers and co-workers. Evaluations sometimes found strong effects on violence, especially with younger youth (Spergel and Grossman 1997; Spergel et al. 2003; Spergel et al. 2006).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19659" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images08b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?fit=1511,1386&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1511,1386" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images08b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?fit=300,275&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?fit=720,661&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=550,505&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=1116,1024&ssl=1 1116w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=300,275&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=150,138&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=768,704&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=720,660&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?w=1511&ssl=1 1511w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=550,505&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19659" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images08b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?fit=1511,1386&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1511,1386" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images08b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?fit=300,275&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?fit=720,661&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images08b.png?resize=550,505&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Outreach workers must be well known by the communities in which they work. They must use relentless yet positive persistence and intensive follow-ups to make connections and demonstrate their commitment to supporting and uplifting their intended clients. It is critically important for relationship development and their personal safety that program participants and the community at large perceive outreach workers as people who can be trusted not to share potentially incriminating information with authorities.</p> <p>Community outreach staff must be relatable to the population of youth and young adults most at risk for violence involvement. While not an absolute requirement, many outreach workers share the backgrounds and justice-system experiences of their program participants. They can recognize and relate to the complex traumas their clients may have endured. Being formerly involved in and familiar with the very behaviors and activities they hope to change increases the likelihood that their clients will see them as trustworthy and credible. Outreach workers function as role models, exhibiting prosocial behaviors and providing the social support known to be a protective factor for violence involvement (Cullen et al. 1999; Culyba et al. 2016; Feeney and Collins 2015; Hammack et al. 2004). Outreach workers connect individuals to resources and trainings, address personal and familial needs, and encourage social development. Through their community-wide influence, outreach programs help to shift community norms related to violence.</p> <p>Evaluations of community outreach are promising but mixed. The approach is difficult to evaluate. First, the programs intentionally engage individuals who are disconnected from traditional institutions and systems of support and are already involved in illegal activities, possibly including violence. Forming relationships with participants and helping them towards lifestyle transformations that will still likely be interrupted by setbacks requires substantial time and resources, especially if workers are viewed with suspicion at first (Jones 2018). There are also significant challenges for program managers working to secure consistent financial and political support for program operations. The pay and benefits for outreach workers are typically low, despite the high stress and high-risk nature of their jobs. Programs encounter difficulties in identifying and retaining appropriate staff. Outreach strategies must have consistent leadership and program oversight, with the ability to respond quickly to changing community needs. And finally, outreach programs may not be equipped to address the many obstacles facing their participants, including structural racism and systemic barriers to health care, employment, affordable and stable housing, and quality education.</p> <p>The most studied community outreach program is probably Cure Violence (formerly known as Chicago CeaseFire), which has been replicated in dozens of cities around the United States and internationally. One early study used interrupted time series analysis with 16 years of data to detect significant declines in shootings in five of seven sites operating Cure Violence programs in Chicago (Skogan et al. 2008). Shooting trends in Cure Violence areas generally outperformed matched comparison neighborhoods, and researchers concluded the decline was due to the program in four of five sites.</p> <p>Another early study used a difference-in-difference model with monthly panel data from Baltimore to test the effects of a Cure Violence inspired model on homicides and shootings (Webster et al. 2013a). The results were inconsistent across several sites, but researchers also conducted participant surveys in several neighborhoods, finding evidence of cross-contamination. More than 30 percent of respondents in comparison areas reported program activities in their neighborhoods.</p> <p>The Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College conducted a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Cure Violence approach in New York City from 2013 to 2017 (Delgado et al. 2017). Using more than 10 years of police and hospital data, researchers measured shootings and gun injuries in two neighborhoods with Cure Violence programs, comparing them with two matching areas. Results of an ARIMA analysis showed statistically significant breaks in violent injuries in both treatment areas while smaller declines in the comparison areas were not significantly different from zero.</p> <p>New York researchers also conducted three waves of surveys with samples of men ages 18-30 in both treatment and comparison areas, asking respondents to indicate their support for the use of interpersonal violence in a series of hypothetical scenarios representing varying degrees of provocation (Butts and Delgado 2017). Respondents’ inclination to use violence dropped across all study areas for serious disputes, but the decrease was steeper in Cure Violence areas (33% vs. 12%). Support for violence in petty disputes declined significantly only for neighborhoods with Cure Violence programs (down 20%). Other research confirms that Cure Violence may help participants to embrace nonviolent responses to interpersonal conflict (Milam et al. 2018).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19660" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images09/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?fit=1505,686&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,686" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images09" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?fit=300,137&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?fit=720,328&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=720,329&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=1500,684&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=300,137&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=150,68&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=768,350&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=720,328&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?w=1505&ssl=1 1505w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=720,329&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19660" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images09/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?fit=1505,686&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,686" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images09" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?fit=300,137&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?fit=720,328&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images09.png?resize=720,329&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>More recent studies were conducted in Philadelphia and Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago. In Philadelphia, Roman and colleagues (2018) tracked shooting trends in crime hotspots and found that shootings decreased significantly compared with matched comparison areas. The evaluation in Trinidad and Tobago (Maguire et al. 2018) found the presence of Cure Violence was associated with significant reductions in overall violent crime (–45%) and shooting injuries (–39%). Compared with the legal and medical costs of gun injuries, the program also appeared to be cost-effective, as each averted gun injury cost just $4,300 in program expenses.</p> <p>Studies of Cure Violence and similar models (e.g. California’s Advance Peace) continue to produce promising, but less than definitive evidence of program effects (Butts et al. 2015; Roman et al. 2018; Webster et al. 2013a). In one study, for example, the Richmond program from which Advance Peace was created may have been associated with statistically significant reductions in firearm violence, but researchers noted small increases in other types of violence (Matthay et al. 2019). While the research literature in support of the community outreach approach is still emerging, evidence suggests it is at least promising despite its many challenges (Huguet et al. 2016; Maguire et al. 2018).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19662" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images010/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?fit=1511,1676&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1511,1676" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images010" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?fit=270,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?fit=720,799&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=550,610&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=923,1024&ssl=1 923w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=270,300&ssl=1 270w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=135,150&ssl=1 135w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=768,852&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=1385,1536&ssl=1 1385w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=720,799&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?w=1511&ssl=1 1511w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=550,610&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19662" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images010/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?fit=1511,1676&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1511,1676" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images010" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?fit=270,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?fit=720,799&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010.png?resize=550,610&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Some outreach programs, including Cure Violence, partner with hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIP), an important addition to community-based violent reduction strategies. Capitalizing on the healthcare and social support available from hospital-based medical staff in the immediate aftermath of a violent incident, HVIP efforts can help survivors and their families recover from violence and reduce the chances of retaliation. Working with victims to overcome trauma helps to stop violence from reoccurring. Research on these programs is relatively new, but findings are promising (Evans and Vega 2018).</p> <p>One early study measured the effect of crisis intervention specialists making hospital visits with young survivors of violent injuries to offer supportive services and dissuade them from seeking revenge. Youth served by the program were less likely than those from a comparison group to be arrested in a six-month follow-up period (Becker et al. 2004). A more recent California study compared the incidence of new injuries among a group of patients served by a violence prevention program and detected a decrease of four percent after controlling for demographic characteristics of the patients (Juillard et al. 2016). Patients randomly assigned to a hospital-based program in Baltimore were less likely to be re-arrested or incarcerated compared with those assigned to a control group (Cooper et al. 2006), and other studies have found lower rates of both arrest, re-injury, and re-hospitalization after intervention by a hospital-based prevention program (Zun et al. 2006).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19663" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images010b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?fit=1509,1161&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1509,1161" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images010b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?fit=300,231&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?fit=720,554&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=550,423&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=1331,1024&ssl=1 1331w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=300,231&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=150,115&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=768,591&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=720,554&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?w=1509&ssl=1 1509w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=550,423&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19663" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images010b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?fit=1509,1161&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1509,1161" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images010b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?fit=300,231&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?fit=720,554&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images010b.png?resize=550,423&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Engage and Support Youth</h3> <p>Youth with positive and structured lives have lower rates of crime and violence, and youth programs often use positive engagement as a mechanism for public safety (Butts et al. 2010). Programs traditionally focus on individualized services, but some rely on creative features of law and policy. Using spatial and temporal variations in state laws setting the minimum permissible age to drop out of high school, for example, Anderson (2014) found that relative to states with minimum ages of 16 or 17, states setting the age at 18 experienced 23 percent lower rates of violent crime arrests for youth ages 16 to 18. Similarly, Berthelon and Kruger (2011) studied temporal and spatial variations in the implementation of policies to lengthen the school day. Their analysis found that a 20 percent increase in the share of a municipality’s high schools requiring full versus half days reduced violent crimes 12 percent.</p> <p>Ensuring quality school experiences for young children has demonstrable benefits for public safety and reductions in violence. In a now-classic example of program evaluation from the 1960s, researchers followed a sample of 123 disadvantaged pre-schoolers in Ypsilanti, Michigan. Children were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. Treatment provided two years of extra educational supports in a 2.5-hour program each school day, along with weekly home visits from teachers. Outcomes were tracked for decades and revealed an array of possible benefits, including reductions in criminal behavior (Heckman et al. 2010; Heckman et al. 2013). One study found 48 percent of control group subjects experienced at least one violent crime arrest later in life while the same was true for just 32 percent of the treatment group (Schweinhart 2007).</p> <p>Providing summer jobs for youth may lower violence not only during the period of employment but afterward as well. Using randomized assignment, a study of youth applicants to a summer jobs program in Chicago found that variations in a 6-8 week part-time job at minimum wage coupled with a job mentor and a job-readiness training led to 42 percent and 33 percent reductions in violent crime arrests one year after program participation (Davis and Heller forthcoming). Likewise, a randomized controlled trial of a Boston summer youth employment program found that an offer of a six-week part-time minimum wage job, coupled with a 20-hour, job-readiness curriculum was associated with a 35 percent decrease in violent crime arraignments for 17 months following program participation (Modestino 2019). The study found larger decreases in violent crime among treatment-group youth reporting gains in social skills during the summer of participation, including their ability to manage their own emotions and how to resolve conflicts with peers.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19664" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images011/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?fit=1500,1457&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1500,1457" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images011" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?fit=300,291&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?fit=720,700&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=550,534&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=1054,1024&ssl=1 1054w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=300,291&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=150,146&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=768,746&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=720,699&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?w=1500&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=550,534&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19664" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images011/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?fit=1500,1457&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1500,1457" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images011" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?fit=300,291&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?fit=720,700&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images011.png?resize=550,534&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Helping youth gain access to positive opportunities also improves community safety. A community-randomized trial of 24 U.S. towns showed that “Communities That Care,” a prevention and youth engagement strategy, reduced the incidence and prevalence of problem behaviors among a panel of youth followed from 5th through 12th grade (Rhew et al. 2016). The program engaged communities in evidence-based programs prioritized for each area and providing an array of youth development activities with specific tools for assessing levels of risk and protection experienced by youth. An independent quasi-experimental trial involving more than 100 Pennsylvania communities found the strategy was effective in reducing delinquency. Cost-benefit analyses suggested the program returned $5.30 for every dollar invested.</p> <p>Providing visible civilian safety officers in areas with high youth foot traffic has been shown to reduce violent crime. By exploiting spatial and temporal variations in the rollout of Chicago’s “Safe Passage” program that placed civilian guards along routes used by students walking to school, McMillen et al. (2019) observed an average reduction of 14 percent in violent crime. Somewhat analogously, directly restricting risky youth behavior reduces violent crime. For example, using spatial and temporal variation in the implementation of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) laws, which restrict nighttime driving for teenagers, Deza and Litwok (2016) found that the implementation of GDL decreased arrests for murder and manslaughter among teenagers ages 16 and 17, with larger effects in states where the nighttime driving curfew was required for a longer period of time.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19665" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images012/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?fit=1506,745&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1506,745" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images012" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?fit=300,148&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?fit=720,356&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=720,356&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=1500,742&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=300,148&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=150,74&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=768,380&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=720,356&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?w=1506&ssl=1 1506w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=720,356&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19665" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images012/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?fit=1506,745&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1506,745" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images012" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?fit=300,148&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?fit=720,356&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images012.png?resize=720,356&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Providing youth with greater structure and supervision may lower violence. Investing in their human and social capital may be effective as well. Requiring youth to complete more years of schooling has been shown to reduce post-graduation violent crime convictions. Using temporal and spatial variation in the rollout of a policy increasing the number of years of compulsory schooling, Hjalmarsson et al. (2015) found that each additional year of schooling decreased the eventual number of violent crime convictions by 62 percent among men ages 19-29.</p> <p>Improving the quality of schools attended by youth at risk for violence has been found to reduce violent crime arrests after graduation. Using data on high school choice lotteries in a North Carolina school district, Deming (2011) found that, seven years after random assignment, high school lottery winners had about 70 percent fewer violent felony arrests relative to high school lottery losers, with the greatest effects concentrated among high-risk youth. Gains in school quality for high school lottery winners, as measured by peer and teacher inputs, were equivalent to moving from one of the lowest-ranked schools in the district to one at the district average.</p> <p>Other programs serving children, adolescents, and parents have been shown to prevent violence by improving participants’ self-control, social skills, and decision-making. Programs such as Nurse Home Visitation (Olds et al. 1997) and “Stop Now and Plan” (Augimieri et al. 2016) have performed well in evaluations. Supplementing education with targeted programs in social skill development may help to reduce violent youth arrests. In two large-scale randomized controlled trials carried out in Chicago, Heller et al. (2017) found that youth participating in group sessions focused on social and cognitive skill development had 45-50 percent fewer violent-crime arrests during the year of program participation. Researchers believed the program helped youth to slow down and reflect on their behavioral options during stressful situations.</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Reduce Substance Abuse</h3> <p>Interventions to reduce substance abuse, especially alcohol abuse, can lower violence, often without individualized treatment. Age limits on alcohol access, for example, have been found to reduce violent crime. Using a regression discontinuity design in a California study, Carpenter and Dobkin (2015) found that, relative to young adults just over age 21, individuals just under age 21 with no legal access to alcohol were six percent less likely to be arrested for aggravated assault, seven percent less likely to be arrested for robbery, and nine percent less likely to be arrested for other assaults. In an Oregon study, Hansen and Waddell (2018) found a measurable increase in violent crime among individuals after age 21, with particularly sharp increases in assaults lacking premeditation. Crime increases were 50 percent greater after age 21 among people with no prior criminal record.</p> <p>Controlling where and when alcohol may be sold also appears to reduce violence. Variations in the adoption of “dry laws” restricting the sale of alcohol in bars/restaurants during specific hours of the week allowed Biderman et al. (2010) to detect a 10 percent homicide reduction associated with legal provisions governing alcohol sales. The phased repeal of laws in Virginia law that once prohibited the sale of packaged liquor on Sundays provided an opportunity for Heaton (2012) to estimate that repeal of the laws increased alcohol-involved serious crimes—including violent crime—by 10 percent. Similarly, using county-level variations in Kansas laws governing the sale and on-premises consumption of alcohol, Anderson et al. (2018) found that a ten percent increase in the number of establishments licensed to sell alcohol by the drink increased violent crime by three to five percent. In a study of Chicago zoning codes, Twinam (2017) used an instrumental variable strategy to find that in neighborhoods without high residential population density, the presence of liquor stores and late-hour bars was associated with higher levels of violent crime.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19667" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images013/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?fit=1502,1847&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1502,1847" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images013" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?fit=244,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?fit=720,885&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=550,676&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=833,1024&ssl=1 833w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=244,300&ssl=1 244w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=122,150&ssl=1 122w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=768,944&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=1249,1536&ssl=1 1249w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=720,885&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?w=1502&ssl=1 1502w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=550,676&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19667" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images013/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?fit=1502,1847&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1502,1847" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images013" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?fit=244,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?fit=720,885&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013.png?resize=550,676&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Individual interventions for substance abuse may reduce violence as well. South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Program requires those arrested for or convicted of an alcohol-related offense to abstain from alcohol and submit to alcohol tests multiple times daily. Testing positive or missing a test automatically results in moderate sanctions, typically a short period in jail. Kilmer and Midgette (2020) examined spatial and temporal variations in the rollout of the 24/7 program and concluded the program significantly reduced individual-level probabilities of violent crime arrests for one year following participation.</p> <p>Simply increasing access to substance abuse treatment, of course, also reduces violence. Using county-level variations in the opening and closing of substance abuse treatment facilities, Bondurant et al. (2018) found that expanded access to substance-abuse treatment facilities reduced violent crimes. Effects were particularly pronounced for serious violence, including homicides, particularly in densely populated areas. Another analyzed the effects of a staggered expansion of Medicaid eligibility through Health Insurance Flexibility and Accountability (HIFA) waivers to find that HIFA-waiver expansion led to sizable reductions in rates of robbery and aggravated assault (Wen et al. 2017). Much of the crime-reduction effects likely occurred through increasing treatment rates that reduced substance use prevalence.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19668" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images013b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?fit=1505,1483&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,1483" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images013b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?fit=300,296&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?fit=720,710&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=550,542&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=1039,1024&ssl=1 1039w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=300,296&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=150,148&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=768,757&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=720,709&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?w=1505&ssl=1 1505w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=550,542&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19668" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images013b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?fit=1505,1483&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,1483" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images013b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?fit=300,296&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?fit=720,710&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images013b.png?resize=550,542&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Efforts to lessen the legal consequences of substance use may also have benefits in violence prevention. In an experiment that decriminalized the possession of small quantities of marijuana in defined geographic areas within a large city, Adda et al. (2014) found that decriminalization reduced sexual assault, robbery, and burglary. Likewise, Gavrilova et al. (2019) found the introduction of medical marijuana laws led to a decrease in violence in states bordering Mexico. The effect was strongest for counties closest to the border (less than 350 kilometers) and for specific crimes related to drug trafficking. The results were consistent with the notion that decriminalization of the production and distribution of drugs may reduce violent crime if drug markets would otherwise be controlled by trafficking organizations.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19670" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images014/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?fit=1503,703&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1503,703" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images014" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?fit=300,140&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?fit=720,337&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=720,337&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=1500,702&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=300,140&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=150,70&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=768,359&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=720,337&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?w=1503&ssl=1 1503w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=720,337&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19670" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images014/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?fit=1503,703&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1503,703" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images014" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?fit=300,140&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?fit=720,337&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images014.png?resize=720,337&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Mitigate Financial Stress</h3> <p>Helping families avoid financial stress and negative income shocks may lead to reduced violence. Using data that captured the negative shock to mothers’ economic status after the introduction of unilateral divorce laws, Cáceres-Delpiano and Giolito (2012) found that children whose mothers were likely to fall below the poverty level and remain unmarried after the introduction of unilateral divorce were significantly more likely to engage in violent crime as adults.</p> <p>Mitigating even short-term economic insecurity can reduce community violence. Chicago’s Homelessness Prevention Call Center (HPCC) connects families and individuals experiencing income loss with immediate, one-time financial assistance. The availability of the support, however, varies unpredictably due to public budgeting cycles. Exploiting this quasi-random variation, Palmer et al. (2019) found that eligible individuals requesting assistance during periods of funding availability were 51 percent less likely to be arrested for a violent crime during the follow-up period compared with other eligible applicants who failed to secure help simply due to funding interruptions. Researchers noted the effect on violence may have been related in part to housing stability.</p> <p>Other researchers have found that short-term financial assistance is more effective at reducing violent crime and victimization when coupled with programs that support the development of emotional and social skills. In one randomized trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for criminally engaged men, Blattman et al. (2017) found that both an eight-week CBT program combined with $200 cash grants reduced violent crime initially, but the effects dissipated over time. When the cash followed therapy, however, violent crime among participants decreased for more than a year. The researchers hypothesized that providing cash after the program reinforced its impact.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19671" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images015/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?fit=1505,944&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,944" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images015" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?fit=300,188&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?fit=720,452&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=720,452&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=1500,941&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=300,188&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=150,94&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=768,482&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=720,452&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?w=1505&ssl=1 1505w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=720,452&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19671" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images015/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?fit=1505,944&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,944" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images015" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?fit=300,188&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?fit=720,452&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images015.png?resize=720,452&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Analyzing data from 81 large American cities during the period 1930 to 1940, Fishback et al. (2010) found that social welfare (relief) spending helped to reduce violent crime. Individuals receiving income support were required to work a defined number of hours. Researchers speculated the work requirement may have been more effective in reducing crime than direct income support simply by limiting the free time available for program participants. Bell et al. (2018) found that young people finishing school during periods of high entry-level job availability were significantly less likely to engage in repeated violent criminal activity than youth leaving school and entering the labor market during downturns in entry-level employment.</p> <p>Yang (2017) analyzed data from a sample of four million people released from prison across 43 states between 2000 and 2013 and found that those leaving prison and entering counties characterized by higher low-skilled wages had a significantly lower risk of being reincarcerated for new violent crimes. Notably, the impact of higher wages on reducing recidivism was larger in employment sectors with greater willingness to hire people of color, formerly incarcerated people, and people released after their first period of incarceration.</p> <p>Researchers find promising effects simply from relocating residents of public housing into less impoverished neighborhoods. The most studied program is the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment, in which families living in high-poverty neighborhoods across the United States were randomly given housing subsidies with various stipulations. Comparing outcomes among individuals randomly offered an option to move versus those of a control group, one study found that moving families from high- to low-poverty neighborhoods decreased unwanted outcomes such as juvenile involvement in violent crime (Ludwig et al. 2001). Such relocation experiments suggest that changing places matters to the prevention of violence, but caution should be exercised in their implementation as many residents might prefer their home neighborhoods, decline offers for relocation, or react to the offers as unethical. “In situ” place-based programs that correct longstanding problems within neighborhoods where people live and allowing them to remain in place could be preferable choices for the prevention of violence in some instances.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19672" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images016/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?fit=2346,1806&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2346,1806" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images016" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?fit=300,231&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?fit=720,554&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=550,423&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=1330,1024&ssl=1 1330w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=300,231&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=150,115&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=768,591&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=1536,1182&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=2048,1577&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=720,554&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?w=2160&ssl=1 2160w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=550,423&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19672" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images016/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?fit=2346,1806&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2346,1806" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images016" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?fit=300,231&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?fit=720,554&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images016.png?resize=550,423&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>A Chicago study estimated long-term outcomes among children from public housing developments who received vouchers to relocate to less-disadvantaged neighborhoods after their homes were demolished. Children who moved had fewer violent crime arrests into adulthood, compared with those from nearby public housing units that were not demolished (Chyn 2018). Other evidence suggests that subsidizing rental housing decreases violent crime. A paper studying the effects of the federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program, which provides additional tax breaks for developers building rental housing for low-income residents in high-poverty areas, found that the poorest neighborhoods experienced the most significant reductions in violent crime (Freedman and Owens 2011).</p> <p>The immediacy and reliability of income can affect rates of violence. Wright et al. (2017) examined the effects of county-level variations in the timing of transitions from cash benefits to electronic benefit transfer (EBT) and found that the switch to EBT reduced overall crime rates by nine percent. Staggering payments may also reduce violent crime. Using daily reported incidents of major crimes in twelve U.S. cities, Foley (2011) found the incidence of financially-motivated violent crimes was related to cycles in monthly welfare payment, but only in jurisdictions in which disbursements were focused at the beginning of the month and not in jurisdictions in which disbursements were staggered. Likewise, Carr and Packham (2019) found that staggering payments to individual recipients of federal food benefits (SNAP) led to meaningful reductions in crime, including assault, domestic violence, and kidnapping.</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Reduce the Harmful Effects of the Justice Process</h3> <p>Despite the best efforts of state and local governments, their nonprofit partners, and residents themselves, every community is likely to face some level of violence. When violence occurs, the formal justice system will be expected to respond. Communities should ensure that operations of the justice system do not add to violence problems. For example, punitive approaches to justice can easily become theater, designed to satisfy the public’s appetite for punishment but adding little to actual public safety. Moving to less punitive policies may reduce the incidence of violence. In one recent study based in Texas, Mueller-Smith and Schnepel (forthcoming) examined temporal discontinuities in policies affecting diversions from felony prosecutions and found that diverting felony offenders from prosecution reduced their subsequent convictions for violent crime. Likewise, taking advantage of “as-if random” practices for assigning Assistant District Attorneys to misdemeanor arraignments in one Massachusetts county, Agan et al. (forthcoming) found that when prosecutors decline to prosecute marginal misdemeanor defendants, it can lead to significant reductions in their downstream felony arrests and convictions.</p> <p>Reducing the use of juvenile detention has also been shown to reduce violent crime. Using the incarceration tendency of randomly-assigned judges as an instrumental variable, Aizer and Doyle (2015) constructed legal histories of criminal cases from a large urban county over a 10-year period and found that juvenile incarceration resulted in substantially higher adult incarceration rates, including for violent crimes. Using variation in small cohorts within the same juvenile detention facility, Stevenson (2017) found that detained youth exposed to peers having higher levels of aggression and more troubled family histories had increased felony arrests and a greater likelihood of felony incarceration after release.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19674" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images017/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?fit=1505,520&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,520" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images017" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?fit=300,104&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?fit=720,249&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=720,248&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=1500,518&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=300,104&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=150,52&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=768,265&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=720,249&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?w=1505&ssl=1 1505w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=720,248&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19674" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images017/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?fit=1505,520&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,520" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images017" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?fit=300,104&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?fit=720,249&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017.png?resize=720,248&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h5><em>Procedural Justice</em></h5> <p>Research suggests the effectiveness of justice interventions depends in part on procedural justice, or the extent to which citizens perceive the actions of the formal justice system as fair, trustworthy, and legitimate (Lind and Tyler 1988; Tyler 2006). Legitimacy refers to whether people experience the actions of legal authorities as unbiased and whether they are treated fairly and equally during interactions with justice officials. Researchers have investigated whether perceptions of legitimacy are associated with voluntary decisions to comply with the law, defer to requests from authorities, and cooperate and engage with the justice process.</p> <p>Procedural justice depends on four factors. First, participation and voice are critical. People report higher levels of satisfaction in encounters with authorities when they have an opportunity to explain their situation and perspective. Even when people know their input will not entirely control an outcome, they want to be heard and taken seriously. Second, people care a great deal about the fairness of decision-making by authorities and they pay attention to neutrality, objectivity, factuality, consistency, and transparency. This means that people care about whether a decisionmaker takes the time to explain what he or she is doing and why. Third, people care that legal authorities treat them with dignity, respect for their rights, and politeness. Fourth, in their interactions with authorities, people want to believe authorities are acting with a sense of benevolence. They want to trust that the motivations of the authorities are sincere and well-intentioned. Basically, the public needs to believe that actors from the justice system think they matter. In relationships with law enforcement, the public makes this assessment by evaluating how police officers treat them.</p> <p>Research shows this is more than a theory. In one federally funded project, Project Safe Neighborhoods, jurisdictions held “notification meetings” for individuals convicted of serious felonies. The meetings were deliberately organized with procedural justice principles. An evaluation demonstrated positive effects (Papachristos et al. 2007; Wallace et al. 2016). Perceptions of legitimacy encourage trust and add to public safety beyond the effects of simple deterrence achieved through fear of consequences (McLively and Nieto 2019; Wakeling et al. 2016).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19675" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images017b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?fit=1505,1538&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,1538" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images017b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?fit=294,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?fit=720,736&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=550,562&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=1002,1024&ssl=1 1002w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=294,300&ssl=1 294w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=147,150&ssl=1 147w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=768,785&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=1503,1536&ssl=1 1503w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=720,736&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?w=1505&ssl=1 1505w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=550,562&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19675" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images017b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?fit=1505,1538&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1505,1538" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images017b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?fit=294,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?fit=720,736&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images017b.png?resize=550,562&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Although a recent evaluation of interventions centered on procedural justice, limitations on the consequences of bias, and promotion of community reconciliation demonstrated mixed results and few decreases in violent crime across the six cities hosting the study (Lawrence et al. 2019), other research documented a causal relationship between procedural justice training provided to police and a reduction of police use of force as well as fewer complaints against officers (Wood et al. 2020).*<br> <small>[ <strong>*</strong> Description of Lawrence et al. (2019) revised in 2021 to correct previous error. ]</small></p> <p>In any comprehensive strategy to reduce community violence, officials in the justice system should attend to the effects of their own process. Research suggests that systems focused on procedural justice may be more effective in addressing neighborhood violence. Evidence for the value of procedural justice applies across the wide array of criminal legal institutions, including police, prosecutors, courts, and the many nonprofit partners involved in the justice process (LaGratta 2017; Lee et al. 2013; Meares and Tyler 2014).</p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Confront the Gun Problem</h3> <p>Any credible effort to reduce violence in the United States must attend to the problem of firearms (Abt 2019; Smart et al. 2020). Reducing access to guns would reduce violent crime. Increasing restrictions on gun access for people convicted of domestic violence offenses, for example, has been shown to reduce violent crime. Using spatial and temporal variation in the application of the 1996 expansion of the federal Gun Control Act (GCA) to prohibit defendants convicted of qualifying domestic violence misdemeanors from possessing or purchasing a firearm, Raissian (2016) found GCA expansion led to 17 percent fewer gun-related homicides among female intimate partner victims, 31 percent fewer gun homicides among male domestic child victims, and a 24 percent reduction in gun homicides of parents and siblings. Restricting children’s access to guns reduces violent crime as well. Analyzing data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) from 1993–2013, Anderson and Sabia (2018) found that child-access-prevention (CAP) laws were associated with an 18 percent decrease in gun carrying and 19 percent fewer students being threatened or injured with weapons on school property.</p> <p>The wide availability of firearms appears to play a role in explaining why the United States has a homicide rate 7.5 times higher than that of the average high rate of homicide in high-income nations (Grinshteyn and Hemenway 2019). Firearm availability is associated with rates of homicide across the U.S. (Cook and Ludwig 2006; Siegel et al. 2014) and is a good predictor of rates of fatal police violence (Hemenway et al. 2019). One recent study examined changes in state-level policies governing access to firearms, including child access prevention, right-to-carry laws, and stand your ground laws (Schell et al. 2020). The results suggested that child access protection laws alone could lead to 11 percent fewer firearm deaths.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19676" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images018/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?fit=1500,1474&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1500,1474" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images018" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?fit=300,295&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?fit=720,708&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=550,540&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=1042,1024&ssl=1 1042w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=300,295&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=150,147&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=768,755&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=720,708&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?w=1500&ssl=1 1500w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=550,540&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19676" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images018/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?fit=1500,1474&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1500,1474" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images018" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?fit=300,295&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?fit=720,708&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images018.png?resize=550,540&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Reducing firearm availability to those who might be inclined to use them to commit violence is challenging given widespread gun ownership and the many weaknesses in federal firearms laws that allow individuals with histories of violence to obtain firearms legally (Webster and Wintemute 2015). The primary objective of most U.S. firearms policies is to keep guns away from individuals with histories of violence. The effectiveness of such laws depends upon the breadth of prohibiting conditions (i.e., how well the law specifies various prohibitions), how well state and local jurisdictions make records available for criminal background checks, and how well the laws and their enforcement hold violators accountable (Webster and Wintemute 2015).</p> <p>Studies have suggested that laws that time-limited (5-10 years) firearm prohibitions for violent misdemeanor convictions are associated with lower rates of violent offending with a firearm among individuals targeted by the law (Wintemute et al. 2001). State-level studies find protective effects for violent misdemeanant prohibitions for Blacks but not for Whites (Knopov et al. 2019). At the county level, firearm prohibitions for violent misdemeanors were associated with reduced firearm homicide rates in suburban and rural counties, but not among urban counties (Crifasi et al. 2018; Siegel et al. 2020). A recent study of California’s laws to prohibit violent misdemeanants from possessing firearms and extend background check requirements to private transfers of firearms found no clear effects on state-wide homicide rates (Castillo-Carniglia et al. 2019).</p> <p>The lack of protective effects from violent misdemeanor firearm prohibitions reported in some population-level studies may be due to relatively weak laws to prevent diversions of guns to the underground market where guns used in homicide are frequently obtained (Braga et al. 2020). Studies that use indicators of diversion or trafficking from crime gun trace data show that extending background checks to private transfers, requiring licenses or permits to purchase handguns, waiting periods, mandated reporting of lost or stolen firearms, and strong regulation and oversight of licensed gun sellers are each associated with reduced levels of diversion of firearms for criminal use (Collins et al. 2018; Crifasi et al. 2017; Webster et al. 2013b; Webster et al. 2009). Comprehensive background check laws are necessary for preventing the diversion of firearms for criminal misuse, but rigorous studies fail to find clear evidence that they are sufficient for reducing homicides unless coupled with requirements that handgun purchasers be licensed (Castillo-Carniglia et al. 2019; Crifasi et al. 2018; Kagawa et al. 2018; McCourt et al. 2020; Rudolph et al. 2015).</p> <p>Research monitoring firearm homicides after states change their handgun purchaser licensing laws provides compelling evidence that purchaser licensing has a large protective effect. In 1995, Connecticut enacted a law requiring handgun purchasers to be licensed by state police contingent upon passing a background check and receiving eight hours of firearm safety training. Rudolph and colleagues (2015) estimated the law reduced firearm homicide rates by 40 percent during the first 10 years. Another recent study updated the analysis with 12 additional years of post-enactment data and estimated a 28 percent reduction in firearm homicide rates associated with Connecticut’s handgun purchaser licensing law (McCourt et al. 2020).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19678" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images019/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?fit=1504,1126&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1504,1126" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images019" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?fit=300,225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?fit=720,539&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=720,539&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=1368,1024&ssl=1 1368w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=300,225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=150,112&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=768,575&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=720,539&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?w=1504&ssl=1 1504w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=720,539&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19678" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images019/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?fit=1504,1126&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1504,1126" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images019" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?fit=300,225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?fit=720,539&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019.png?resize=720,539&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>Beginning in the 1920s, Missouri state law required handgun purchasers to be licensed and vetted by local sheriff’s departments. The state repealed the law in 2007. Three studies, using data over different time periods and different statistical modeling methods demonstrated that the law’s revocation was associated with statistically significant increases in firearm homicide rates between 17 and 47 percent (Hasegawa et al. 2019; McCourt et al. 2020; Webster et al. 2014). Revocation was also associated with a two-fold increase in an important indicator of illegal diversion of firearms for criminal use (Webster et al. 2013b). Importantly, these and other studies of Connecticut’s and Missouri’s handgun purchaser laws found similarly large effects on firearm suicides (Crifasi et al. 2015; McCourt et al. 2020). Studies examining the association between purchaser licensing laws across all states having such laws find that licensing provisions are associated with lower firearm homicide rates (Crifasi et al. 2018; Knopov et al. 2019; Luca et al. 2017; Siegel et al. 2020), lower rates of fatal mass shootings (Webster et al. 2020), and lower rates of law enforcement officers shot in the line of duty (Crifasi et al. 2016).</p> <p>Purchaser licensing laws may reduce the incidence of fatal shootings by police. In states that require comprehensive background checks but without purchaser licensing laws, rates of fatal shootings by police are twice as high as in states with licensing laws. States with neither licensing laws nor background checks experience fatal police shootings at four times the rate seen in states with purchaser licensing laws (Webster and Booty 2020).</p> <p>National surveys indicate growing support for handgun purchaser licensing laws—77 percent overall (Barry et al. 2019). In states requiring handgun purchaser licensing, more than three-quarters of gun owners support the laws (Crifasi et al. 2019). Purchaser licensing that allows local officials wide discretion in denying applications, as in New York and Massachusetts, may be more vulnerable to inequitable restrictions on 2nd Amendment rights. (Faculty at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Gun Policy and Research are working with the Consortium for Risk-Based Firearm Policy to develop licensing guidelines that address equity concerns.)</p> <p>State regulations of concealed carry of firearms outside the home appear to affect rates of violent crime, including homicide. Most states have so-called “Shall Issue” laws that make it relatively easy for citizens to obtain permits to legally carry concealed firearms outside of the home, provided they are not legally prohibited from having firearms. Some Shall Issue laws allow for denials of permit applications if there is some evidence an applicant is dangerous. Eight states and the District of Columbia have “May Issue” laws that provide law enforcement with discretion to deny concealed carry license applications even when the applicant is not a prohibited person. “Permitless” carry laws are gaining popularity in states with strong anti-gun-regulation politics. The best available research indicates that changing laws from “No Issue” or “May Issue” to “Shall Issue” may be associated with increased rates of violent crime, including homicide (Crifasi et al. 2018; Donohue et al. 2019; Gius 2019; Siegel et al. 2017; Siegel et al. 2019).</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19679" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images019b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?fit=2308,1933&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2308,1933" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images019b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?fit=300,251&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?fit=720,603&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=550,461&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=1223,1024&ssl=1 1223w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=300,251&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=150,126&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=768,643&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=1536,1286&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=2048,1715&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=720,603&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?w=2160&ssl=1 2160w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=550,461&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19679" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images019b/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?fit=2308,1933&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2308,1933" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images019b" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?fit=300,251&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?fit=720,603&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images019b.png?resize=550,461&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <p>A more politically feasible and legally sound way to reduce civilian gun carrying would be through rigorous licensing that sets a higher bar for prohibitions relevant to a history of violent or dangerous behavior as well as a high standard for applicants’ ability to discern when and when not to reach for, brandish, or shoot a firearm. There is wide support (83% of non-gun-owners and 73% of gun owners) for laws requiring civilians seeking concealed carry licenses to demonstrate they can safely do what they are seeking a license to do (Barry et al. 2019).</p> <p>So-called “Stand Your Ground” (SYG) laws that expand justifications for lethal responses to perceived threats represent a threat to community safety. Research is somewhat inconsistent based upon modeling strategies, time periods studied, and whether the effects of other key laws are considered. The weight of evidence, however, suggests that SYG laws increase homicides (Cheng and Hoekstra 2013; Crifasi et al. 2018; Humphreys et al. 2017; McClellan and Tekin 2017). Using state-level monthly data and a difference-in-difference identification strategy, McClellan and Tekin (2017) found that about 30 people are killed monthly due to SYG laws. The study suggested the laws were associated also with increased hospitalizations due to firearm-inflicted injuries. Using state law variations between 2000 to 2010, Cheng and Hoekstra (2013) found that SYG laws led to a statistically significant eight percent net increase in the number of reported murders and nonnegligent manslaughters.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19681" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images020/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?fit=1501,1519&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1501,1519" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?fit=296,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?fit=720,729&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=550,557&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=1012,1024&ssl=1 1012w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=296,300&ssl=1 296w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=148,150&ssl=1 148w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=768,777&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=720,729&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?w=1501&ssl=1 1501w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=550,557&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19681" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images020/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?fit=1501,1519&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1501,1519" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?fit=296,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?fit=720,729&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images020.png?resize=550,557&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>More Evidence, Difference Evidence</strong></span></h2> <p>If any country could be expected to generate and use high-quality evidence for reducing violence, it would be the United States. Not only does the U.S. suffer from high rates of interpersonal violence, especially gun violence, but it also has a well-funded and diverse community of researchers ready to conduct rigorous evaluations of policies and programs. Why then, do public officials and community leaders still ask for new evidence when designing strategies to prevent violence? Why has the country not solved this problem?</p> <p>First, policymakers are reluctant to reject established concepts. Strategies for reducing violence have traditionally depended on two core components:<br> 1) police and other agencies in the formal justice system are expected to deter and rehabilitate people already known to be violent offenders while simultaneously communicating a general message of deterrence to potential offenders still unknown, and 2) numerous organizations including human service agencies, schools, healthcare providers, and the faith community try to mitigate the wide array of social structures and community conditions associated with high rates of violence. Public officials can be reluctant to support the second strategy. Especially during periods of social unrest and increasing violence, addressing the underlying causes of violence with preventive services and supports can sound vague, complicated, and ineffectual. To attract broad political support, violence prevention strategies must have immediate and visible effects. When news media produce images of people being arrested and imprisoned, the public readily assumes these actions will generate greater safety. It is harder, if not impossible, to photograph the long-term preventive effect of good schools, secure housing, and orderly public spaces.</p> <p>Second, the nature of evaluation research creates a bias that disadvantages non-policing approaches. Researchers are more likely to find positive effects for interventions focused on individuals rather than neighborhoods and communities. Individual-level studies benefit from larger sample sizes and predictably higher base rates of key outcomes, especially when research subjects are already involved in the justice system. These factors increase the ability of researchers to detect statistical effects (or the strength of a measurable relationship between an intervention and its outcomes). Community-based interventions, on the other hand, are usually implemented in groups of cities or neighborhoods, which results in smaller sample sizes, hard-to-control treatment assignments, and large numbers of unmeasurable covariates. This creates an evidentiary bias favoring individual-level programs for known offenders (secondary intervention) rather than strategies designed to prevent crime and violence at the neighborhood or community level (primary prevention).</p> <p>Researchers assessing the strength of evidence reinforce the individual-level bias when they:</p> <ol> <li>prioritize studies based on the rigor of comparative designs, with a preference for randomization,</li> <li>rank studies according to reported effect size on crime-related outcomes (usually police reports), and</li> <li>designate interventions at the top of the list as “evidence-based.”</li> </ol> <p>Individual-level interventions inevitably find their way to the top of such lists due to the nature of statistics. In this way, public officials are taught to be skeptical of community-based strategies for violence prevention and violence reduction. The common ideological tendency of public officials to locate the sources of social problems within individuals rather than communities only aggravates and strengthens the bias in favor of interventions operated by law enforcement and the justice system.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19682" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images021/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?fit=1512,2126&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1512,2126" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images021" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?fit=213,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?fit=720,1013&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=550,773&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=728,1024&ssl=1 728w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=213,300&ssl=1 213w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=107,150&ssl=1 107w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=768,1080&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=1092,1536&ssl=1 1092w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=1457,2048&ssl=1 1457w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=720,1012&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?w=1512&ssl=1 1512w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=550,773&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19682" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images021/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?fit=1512,2126&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1512,2126" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images021" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?fit=213,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?fit=720,1013&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images021.png?resize=550,773&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Data Blinders</h3> <p>Too much of the knowledge base for reducing violence depends on studies that measure public safety with data generated by law enforcement and subsequent processing within the justice system. Police data do not capture all crimes and certainly not all forms of harm and abuse. Even for crimes of violence, more than half of all offenses are never reported to police, and only half of those reported ever result in an arrest (Butts and Schiraldi 2018; Morgan and Oudekerk 2019).</p> <p>Police data are affected by differential reporting based on a community’s trust in police, residents’ reluctance to report certain crimes (e.g., interpersonal violence, sexual assault), and numerous other definitional/measurement problems, data entry errors, and even purposeful manipulation by law enforcement agencies (Elliott et al. 1986; Flowers 1988; Gelles 1993; Rokaw et al. 1990).</p> <p>Police and justice system data are generated from the work processes of formal bureaucracies that are inherently subject to racial and class biases and that create a distorted image of community crime (Hetey and Eberhardt 2018; Richardson et al. 2019). Even if communities of color are only slightly more likely to be under constant police surveillance, for example, and even if people of color are only slightly more likely to be stopped and questioned, then just slightly more likely to be arrested, charged, and convicted, all the slight increments of racial bias accumulate (Bishop et al. 2020). When the formal systems of law enforcement and public safety are perceived as biased, poor communities and communities of color are less likely to report incidences of violence to the police and less likely to cooperate with police when crimes are reported. Thus, police data represent an incomplete picture of the harmful behaviors affecting neighborhoods and exposing residents to trauma and stress.</p> <p>Official crime data also fail to capture the harms resulting from justice operations (Bell 2020; Pettit 2012; Roberts 2003; Rowe and Søgaard 2019). Data portraying the possible harms of a program, such as added victimization and negative effects on mental health and general well-being are not common in evaluation studies when the outcome of interest is violent crime. Data to operationalize community variations in resident well-being, social integration, and peer support would likely come from self-report data generated through surveys and interviews. Self-report data, however, are typically time- and resource-intensive. As funding for evaluation is often treated as an afterthought by government funding sources, investigators are incented to avoid expensive data in favor of readily available police and court data, which encourages evaluations to focus on simply ascertaining whether officially recorded violence decreased after an intervention was implemented and not the full range of other important outcomes.</p> <p>One critical and overlooked outcome, nearly always ignored in evaluations of both policing and non-policing approaches to violence reduction, is the true cost of policing. In many ways, the push to “defund” police that gained traction in 2020 is built on claims about costs and benefits: that investing limited city funds in institutions other than the police could reduce crime at substantially lower costs. Unfortunately, addressing this claim head on is hampered not just by the general lack of cost-benefit analyses (CBA) of policing (Fackler et al. 2017; Ponomarenko and Friedman 2017; Washington State Institute of Public Policy 2019), but by the fact that CBA studies generally fail to identify important shortcomings in police operations and their outcomes.</p> <p>Few if any studies reporting net positive effects from policing actually show it is specifically the police that reduce crime. Instead, results indicate that having someone present reduces crime and that police can be that someone, but not that police must be that someone. In other words, CBA studies appear to validate Jacobs’ (1961) “eyes on the street” hypothesis more than they credit the effects of police involvement. Of course, it may be that the threat of arrest is what makes police presence matter, but even that does not necessarily imply that armed police are essential. As Sharkey (2018) and Cook and MacDonald (2011) point out, many Business Improvement Districts have relied on (often unarmed) private security to provide safety. In fact, the U.S. employs more people as private security than as sworn police officers, even though studies of policing’s impact on crime tend to omit private security from their models.</p> <p>Another shortcoming is that CBAs of policing measure the fiscal costs of policing and not the social costs of policing (Ponomarenko and Friendman 2017; WSIPP 2019; though see Manski and Nagin 2017 for a rare, narrowly focused exception). Deaths caused by policing, for example, do not show up as costs in traditional CBAs, nor does community fear and other collateral costs that usually follow in the wake of such deaths. Studies do not include the costs of non-lethal police violence as well, both physical and emotional, nor do studies include any of the macro-level costs, such as an unwillingness to report crime (Desmond et al. 2016), community-wide declines in voting that come from negative police encounters (Weaver and Lerman 2010), or the collective costs of racialized mass stops, such as NYC’s Stop and Frisk campaign (Fagan et al. 2009). Studies tend to measure fiscal outlays, which would likely be dwarfed by measures of true social costs.</p> <p>Policing CBAs also typically fail to engage the issue of opportunity costs (though see Aos and Drake, 2013 for a partial exception). Chalfin and McCrary (2018), for example, estimate that $1.63 in reduced crime flows from each additional dollar spent on policing, even implying that “US cities are underpoliced” (the title of their paper). Their conclusion does not hold, of course, if each dollar could produce more than $1.63 in reduced crime if spent elsewhere. Studies cited by Doleac (2018) suggest that a dollar spent on (civilian) drug treatment may cut crime by almost $4, gains that far exceed those of policing without the attendant social costs, and with a host of other social benefits. It is certainly helpful to know that interventions are not net losses when viewed in isolation (putting aside concerns about overlooked social costs), but findings of “net gain” should not be always read to mean “invest more.” They may be consistent with “invest less.” The United States spends about $100 billion per year on policing, but CBAs of policing do not accurately measure social costs, spend little time examining opportunity costs and have not carefully identified the extent to which any measured deterrent effect is due to the unique powers of police officers or might be matched by other sorts of observers. These are serious and significant blind spots at any time, but especially during a period when the efficacy and centrality of policing is facing significant criticism.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?ssl=1" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19683" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images022/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?fit=1506,1774&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1506,1774" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images022" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?fit=255,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?fit=720,848&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=550,648&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=869,1024&ssl=1 869w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=255,300&ssl=1 255w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=127,150&ssl=1 127w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=768,905&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=1304,1536&ssl=1 1304w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=720,848&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?w=1506&ssl=1 1506w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=550,648&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19683" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/images022/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?fit=1506,1774&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1506,1774" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="images022" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?fit=255,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?fit=720,848&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/images022.png?resize=550,648&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></p> <h2 style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Refocusing</strong></span></h2> <p>As community leaders and funders consider ways to reduce violence without police and to prove the effectiveness of those strategies, the conventional view of violence must be reconsidered. The narrow and traditional definition of violence used in most evaluation research is interpersonal harms reported by the police or to the police. This view is wholly insufficient if the goal is to prevent and reduce community violence. For one, most violent acts are not measurable with police data because they are never reported to police (Biderman and Reiss 1967). Not only do conventional definitions of violence fail to capture half of all violent acts between neighborhood residents, but they also omit any violent harm resulting from organizational behaviors, social structures, and systematic racial and class oppression. If the goal of violence reduction is to enhance the peace and security of neighborhood residents, efforts to reduce violence should attend to all forms of violence.</p> <p>If a person knowingly poisons their neighbor’s water with lead, causing lasting harm to a child, the public would condemn the act as a serious and even violent crime. When a government does the same thing, however, the average citizen might describe it as a cruel and callous bureaucratic error, but probably not a violent crime. If a person sits in a car while a friend attempts to rob a liquor store and a clerk inside the store is shot and killed, the driver would probably be charged with taking part in a murder even if they were unaware the friend was carrying a weapon. When corporations repeatedly take actions to condemn entire communities to levels of stress proven to result in high rates of violence, however, most people would not see those actions as crimes.</p> <p>Using a broad definition would hold parties criminally responsible for violence whenever they were accountable for violent harms, whether they were individual perpetrators, organizational entities, political bodies, or economic and corporate structures. Without a legal framework to address all forms of structural violence, traditional definitions of violence fail to indict all responsible parties (Farmer et al. 2006). Expanding the concept of violence to include structural violence would signal a true commitment to peace, truth, reconciliation, and racial healing.</p> <p>Researchers should participate in expanding the concept of violence. Conventional evaluation frameworks are often deficient for transformative research as they are less attuned to data from community experts and more oriented for academics and professional researchers. The data instruments commonly deployed in social scientific studies do not account for the dual- or multi-coding schemes required to capture the experiential overlap unfolding in complex social contexts (Brezina et al. 2009; Forenza et al. 2019; Sabol et al. 2004).</p> <p>Conventional evaluation studies often fail to account for the full social context giving rise to violence and other unwanted behaviors. Traditional research analyses label the behavior of individuals as violent while omitting other relevant traits (e.g., exposure to neighborhood-level crime salience, prior experiences in police custody, exposure to police violence). Without an analytically appropriate strategy for unpacking the dynamics of place-based violence, the full contour of these other factors remains detached from research methods and measures (regardless of an individual scientist’s conceptual understanding of violence and victimhood).</p> <p>Measurement validity in studies of community violence would be enhanced by including input from community residents as they are usually in the best position to identify and shape the type of violence reduction interventions that would be most effective in their own communities. Resident guidance and control of research would make evaluations more meaningful and effective. Researchers would benefit from following the knowledge of residents as they contribute to the contextual definitions of violence, the identification of precursors and consequences of violence, and the design of investments to improve public health and safety. This is particularly important for research aimed at developing interventions to disrupt violence without relying on the formal legal system. Research that fails to acknowledge this paradigmatic gulf inevitably yields an incomplete understanding of the core constructs that supposedly form the subject of such studies—community violence and community empowerment.</p> <h2 id="recommendations" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Recommendations</strong></span></h2> <p>The John Jay College Research Advisory Group on Preventing and Reducing Community Violence offers 11 recommendations to consider when generating new evidence for violence reduction without police.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">1 –  </span>The seven major strategies identified in this report are consistent with the most persuasive research evidence for preventing and reducing violence without relying on police. Funding organizations and researchers should ensure each strategy is also responsive to the values and experiences of community residents.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Funding entities should place a high priority on research involving significant and sustained community engagement. Resident participation should begin during the design phase and not wait until data are already collected.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">2 –  </span>Environmental strategies, such as greening vacant lots, improving lighting, and increasing tree canopy can reduce violence and address accumulated structures of poverty, fear, and stress, while increasing social integration and resident well-being.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Place-based interventions have been tested and often found to be successful. Researchers should identify the strategies ready to be scaled-up and identify best processes, relative dosages, and thresholds of intervention needed to reduce violence. Current evidence is often derived from natural experiments that examine existing differences across contexts without intervention by scientists (e.g., effects of variations in the tree canopy or lighting levels). New trials-oriented research should be used to manipulate physical features and establish the effects of place-based interventions and build a portfolio of investments focused on low-cost, high-reward opportunities.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">3 –  </span>Strategies that increase pro-social bonds, promote anti-violence norms, and provide social supports and opportunities for participants can produce short-term and long-term desistance from crime when implemented and managed properly.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Outreach-based programs, such as Advance Peace and Cure Violence, are an attractive area for new research investments, but the literature is at an early phase. In addition to outcome evaluations, funding organizations should focus on two areas: (1) the use of implementation science to identify the key components of such programs and establish the role of program fidelity, and (2) research to assess individual-level behavior change by varying the timing and intensity of program components.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">4 –  </span>Communities seeking to reduce violence must place a priority on young people. Interventions should focus on protective factors as well as risk factors, strengths as well as problems, and efforts to facilitate successful transitions to adulthood for all youth. Young people engaged with positive, prosocial adults and peers are more likely to build the developmental assets needed for non-violent lives.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Researchers in the area of youth services traditionally measure deficits, including criminal re-arrest and recidivism. New funding should focus on rigorous evaluations of efforts to deliver positive assets for youth, including improvements in family relations, school success, labor market performance, and use of leisure time.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">5 –  </span>Violence-prevention efforts must include a focus on substance abuse but look beyond the effects of substance abuse treatment. Studies suggest that restricting access to alcohol among young people can reduce rates of interpersonal violence.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>New research should establish the benefits of varying strategies to reduce youth access to alcohol while monitoring displacement effects if youth increase their use of other substances.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">6 –  </span>Community violence is more prevalent in neighborhoods where residents face severe and chronic financial stress. To disregard this reality while focusing solely on surveillance and enforcement is inherently discriminatory.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Research funders should support evaluations of violence reduction strategies that include fiscal components, such as cash incentives tied to skills training, therapeutic counseling, and other programs that assist low-income residents in need of immediate help.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">7 –  </span>Communities are continuing to invest in procedural justice, or strategies to increase the objectivity, neutrality, and transparency of the justice process. Evidence for the value of procedural justice has been found across the wide array of criminal legal institutions, including police, prosecutors, courts, and the many nonprofit partners involved in the justice process.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Research is still needed to establish the causal effects of various approaches to procedural justice, controlling for the severity of the legal matters involved and community context as well as the fidelity of strategies intended to achieve procedural justice outcomes.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">8 –  </span>Keeping firearms away from people inclined to use them for violence is challenging given widespread gun ownership in the United States and many weaknesses in federal and state firearms laws. The variability in law, however, allows researchers to model the effects of policies on firearm violence.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Evidence suggests that strategies to prevent community violence should include policies that control access to and possession of firearms. New research should test the association between the presence of such policies and the knowledge and behavior of individuals residing in affected areas.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">9 –  </span>Weighing the strength and applicability of research evidence is a technical skill. Any effort to base policy and practice on research evidence should involve the advice and counsel of trained researchers–not merely those with advanced degrees, but experts in evaluation methods, statistics, and causal inference.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Research funding should include incentives for individual investigators to use multi-disciplinary teams, both in the design phase of studies and in the data analytic stages.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">10 –  </span>Judging the strength of evidence behind a specific policy or practice is not a simple matter of determining which studies are best from a technical perspective. Some causal propositions are harder to test than others.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>In choosing specific research projects, funding organizations must strike a balance of theoretical salience, practical viability, and evidentiary support. Judging research value based solely on statistical rigor is dangerously naive and even harmful.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 36px; float: left; color: #0275f0; font-family: times;">11 –  </span>There will never be enough financing to support rigorous evaluations of every feasible method of reducing community violence—especially studies requiring direct contact with human subjects for interviews and surveys.<br> <span style="color: #0275f0;"><em>Needed Action:</em> </span>Researchers and community leaders should collaborate in data analytic projects and natural experiments to test a wide array of policies and programs for their potential to reduce community violence. Funding bodies will undoubtedly continue to invest in studies requiring primary data collection, but other cost-effective research projects should use pre-existing, secondary data from varying sectors, including schools, hospitals, housing, taxes, employment, commercial sales, business regulations, etc.</p> <h2 id="about" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>About This Report</strong></span></h2> <p><strong>Funding</strong><br> This report is the product of a collaborative effort supported by Arnold Ventures. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Arnold Ventures or its staff.</p> <p><strong>Acknowledgments</strong><br> The authors appreciate the contributions of the entire criminal justice team at Arnold Ventures, especially those who conceived the project plan, contributed to its design, or read and commented on earlier drafts: Jordan Costa, Jocelyn Fontaine, Walter Katz, Nicola Smith-Kea, Jeremy Travis, and Asheley Van Ness.</p> <p><strong>Recommended Citation</strong><br> John Jay College Research Advisory Group on Preventing and Reducing Community Violence (2020). Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence. New York, NY: Research and Evaluation Center, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York.</p> <h2 id="members" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>Members of the Research Advisory Group</strong></span></h2> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><a href="https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/people/our-faculty/ccb2166" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="18949" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/advisers_map/head_branas2020/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?fit=176,213&ssl=1" data-orig-size="176,213" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_branas2020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?fit=176,213&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?fit=176,213&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?resize=144,174&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?w=176&ssl=1 176w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?resize=124,150&ssl=1 124w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?resize=144,174&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="18949" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/advisers_map/head_branas2020/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?fit=176,213&ssl=1" data-orig-size="176,213" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_branas2020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?fit=176,213&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?fit=176,213&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_branas2020.jpg?resize=144,174&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td style="border: 2px solid #ffffff; text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/people/our-faculty/ccb2166" target="_blank" target="_blank"><strong>Charles Branas</strong></a><br> Department of Epidemiology<br> Mailman School of Public Health<br> Columbia University</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://health.ucdavis.edu/vprp/ourteam/index.html" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19599" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_buggs/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?fit=240,320&ssl=1" data-orig-size="240,320" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="pic_buggs" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?fit=225,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?fit=240,320&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?w=240&ssl=1 240w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?resize=225,300&ssl=1 225w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?resize=113,150&ssl=1 113w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?resize=144,192&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19599" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_buggs/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?fit=240,320&ssl=1" data-orig-size="240,320" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="pic_buggs" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?fit=225,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?fit=240,320&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_buggs.jpg?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://health.ucdavis.edu/vprp/ourteam/index.html" target="_blank" target="_blank">Shani Buggs</a></strong><br> Violence Prevention Research Program<br> University of California Davis</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://jeffreybutts.net/" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="8574" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_jbutts2014/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?fit=800,1000&ssl=1" data-orig-size="800,1000" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.4","credit":"","camera":"iPad Air","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1410784294","copyright":"","focal_length":"3.3","iso":"250","shutter_speed":"0.041666666666667","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="head_jbutts2014" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?fit=240,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?fit=720,900&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?resize=144,180&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?resize=144,180&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="8574" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_jbutts2014/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?fit=800,1000&ssl=1" data-orig-size="800,1000" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.4","credit":"","camera":"iPad Air","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1410784294","copyright":"","focal_length":"3.3","iso":"250","shutter_speed":"0.041666666666667","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="head_jbutts2014" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?fit=240,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?fit=720,900&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/head_jbutts2014.jpg?resize=144,180&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://JeffreyButts.net" target="_blank" target="_blank">Jeffrey A. Butts</a></strong><br> John Jay College of Criminal Justice<br> City University of New York</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/annaharvey/" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="18951" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/advisers_map/head_harvey2020/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?fit=176,200&ssl=1" data-orig-size="176,200" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_harvey2020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?fit=176,200&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?fit=176,200&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?resize=144,164&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?w=176&ssl=1 176w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?resize=132,150&ssl=1 132w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?resize=144,164&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="18951" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/advisers_map/head_harvey2020/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?fit=176,200&ssl=1" data-orig-size="176,200" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_harvey2020" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?fit=176,200&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?fit=176,200&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/head_harvey2020.jpg?resize=144,164&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/annaharvey/" target="_blank" target="_blank">Anna Harvey</a></strong><br> Department of Politics<br> and Public Safety Lab<br> New York University</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="http://socialwelfare.berkeley.edu/faculty/erin-kerrison" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19607" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_kerrison/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?fit=200,267&ssl=1" data-orig-size="200,267" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"5","credit":"","camera":"NIKON D300","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1407655654","copyright":"@2014 Jill McCorkel","focal_length":"116","iso":"200","shutter_speed":"0.016666666666667","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pic_kerrison" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?fit=200,267&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?fit=200,267&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?w=200&ssl=1 200w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?resize=112,150&ssl=1 112w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?resize=144,192&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19607" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_kerrison/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?fit=200,267&ssl=1" data-orig-size="200,267" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"5","credit":"","camera":"NIKON D300","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1407655654","copyright":"@2014 Jill McCorkel","focal_length":"116","iso":"200","shutter_speed":"0.016666666666667","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pic_kerrison" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?fit=200,267&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?fit=200,267&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_kerrison.jpg?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="http://socialwelfare.berkeley.edu/faculty/erin-kerrison" target="_blank" target="_blank">Erin M. Kerrison</a></strong><br> School of Social Welfare<br> University of California, Berkeley</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://law.yale.edu/tracey-l-meares" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19608" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_meares/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?fit=220,310&ssl=1" data-orig-size="220,310" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_meares" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?fit=213,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?fit=220,310&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?resize=144,203&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?w=220&ssl=1 220w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?resize=213,300&ssl=1 213w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?resize=106,150&ssl=1 106w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?resize=144,203&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19608" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_meares/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?fit=220,310&ssl=1" data-orig-size="220,310" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_meares" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?fit=213,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?fit=220,310&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_meares.jpg?resize=144,203&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://law.yale.edu/tracey-l-meares" target="_blank" target="_blank">Tracey Meares</a></strong><br> School of Law<br> Yale University</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://www.sociology.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/core/andrew-v.--papachristos-.html" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19610" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_papachristos/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?fit=370,403&ssl=1" data-orig-size="370,403" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_papachristos" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?fit=275,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?fit=370,403&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?resize=144,157&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?w=370&ssl=1 370w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?resize=275,300&ssl=1 275w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?resize=138,150&ssl=1 138w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?resize=144,157&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19610" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_papachristos/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?fit=370,403&ssl=1" data-orig-size="370,403" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_papachristos" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?fit=275,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?fit=370,403&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_papachristos.jpg?resize=144,157&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://www.sociology.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/core/andrew-v.--papachristos-.html" target="_blank" target="_blank">Andrew V. Papachristos</a></strong><br> Department Sociology<br> and Institute for Policy Research<br> Northwestern University</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://www.fordham.edu/info/23171/john_pfaff" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19611" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_pfaff/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?fit=240,240&ssl=1" data-orig-size="240,240" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_pfaff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?fit=240,240&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?fit=240,240&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?resize=144,144&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?w=240&ssl=1 240w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?resize=150,150&ssl=1 150w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?resize=144,144&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19611" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_pfaff/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?fit=240,240&ssl=1" data-orig-size="240,240" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_pfaff" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?fit=240,240&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?fit=240,240&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_pfaff.jpg?resize=144,144&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://www.fordham.edu/info/23171/john_pfaff" target="_blank" target="_blank">John Pfaff</a></strong><br> School of Law<br> Fordham University</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://people.miami.edu/profile/axp1954@miami.edu" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19612" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_piquero/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?fit=220,294&ssl=1" data-orig-size="220,294" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_piquero" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?fit=220,294&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?fit=220,294&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?w=220&ssl=1 220w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?resize=112,150&ssl=1 112w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?resize=144,192&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19612" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_piquero/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?fit=220,294&ssl=1" data-orig-size="220,294" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_piquero" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?fit=220,294&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?fit=220,294&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_piquero.png?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://people.miami.edu/profile/axp1954@miami.edu" target="_blank" target="_blank">Alex R. Piquero</a></strong><br> Department of Sociology<br> University of Miami</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://aasd.umd.edu/facultyprofile/richardson-jr./joseph" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19614" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_richardson/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?fit=320,427&ssl=1" data-orig-size="320,427" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="pic_richardson" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?fit=225,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?fit=320,427&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" data-lazy-srcset="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?w=320&ssl=1 320w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?resize=225,300&ssl=1 225w, https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?resize=112,150&ssl=1 112w" data-lazy-sizes="(max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" data-lazy-src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?resize=144,192&is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"><noscript><img data-attachment-id="19614" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_richardson/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?fit=320,427&ssl=1" data-orig-size="320,427" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="pic_richardson" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?fit=225,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?fit=320,427&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_richardson.jpg?resize=144,192&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://aasd.umd.edu/facultyprofile/richardson-jr./joseph" target="_blank" target="_blank">Joseph Richardson, Jr.</a></strong><br> Department of African American Studies<br> University of Maryland</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://liberalarts.temple.edu/academics/faculty/roman-caterina" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19615" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/pic_roman/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?fit=596,649&ssl=1" data-orig-size="596,649" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1576431490","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pic_roman" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?fit=276,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?fit=596,649&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?resize=144,157&ssl=1" alt="" 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data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1576431490","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pic_roman" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?fit=276,300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?fit=596,649&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/pic_roman.jpg?resize=144,157&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://liberalarts.temple.edu/academics/faculty/roman-caterina" target="_blank" target="_blank">Caterina Gouvis Roman</a></strong><br> Department of Criminal Justice<br> Temple University</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/faculty/directory/profile/739/daniel-webster" target="_blank" target="_blank"><img data-attachment-id="19617" data-permalink="https://johnjayrec.nyc/2020/11/09/av2020/head_webster/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?fit=190,220&ssl=1" data-orig-size="190,220" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="head_webster" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?fit=190,220&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?fit=190,220&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?resize=144,167&ssl=1" alt="" 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data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?fit=190,220&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?fit=190,220&ssl=1" loading="lazy" src="https://i0.wp.com/johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/head_webster.jpg?resize=144,167&ssl=1" alt="" data-recalc-dims="1" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"></noscript></a></td> <td><strong><a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/faculty/directory/profile/739/daniel-webster" target="_blank" target="_blank">Daniel Webster</a></strong><br> Bloomberg School of Public Health<br> Johns Hopkins University</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>The work of the advisory group members was supported by the able assistance of staff from the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center:</p> <p style="padding-left: 80px;">Nicole Alexander, Communications Specialist<br> Edda Fransdottir, Research Associate<br> Yuchen Hou, Graduate Research Assistant<br> Victoria Wang, Graduate Research Assistant<br> William Wical, Graduate Research Assistant</p> <h2 id="references" style="font-size:1.05em"><span style="color: #805700;"><strong>References</strong></span></h2> <p>Abt, Thomas (2019). <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Bleeding-Out-Devastating-Consequences-Violence/dp/1541645723" target="_blank" target="_blank"><strong>Bleeding Out: The Devastating Consequences of Urban Violence–and A Bold New Plan for Peace in the Streets</strong></a>. 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<div> <p id="m6P3os">In New Hampshire, the <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-laws/state-law/new-hampshire/" target="_blank">process</a> for buying a gun is easy — easier than getting a driver’s license. </p> <p id="z648mK">You go to a gun store, you show your ID, and if you pass a background check that looks at your criminal record and some of your mental health history, you can walk out with a firearm. No training required. No registration of the gun. In the great majority of cases, not even a waiting period.</p> <p id="n4ze66">Still sound arduous? Well, there’s a workaround: Private sellers — say, a family member or someone online — can sell you a gun without any background check at all.</p> <p id="9xKMUy">Drive a few miles south to Massachusetts, though, and the process is <em>very</em> different. First off, it doesn’t begin at a gun shop; it begins by obtaining a permit to purchase a gun from your local police department — basically, a gun license. Obtaining this permit is a potentially weeks-long process, which requires paperwork, an interview, a background check, and, even if you pass all of that, the police chief has some discretion to deny the license anyway — if he or she, for example, knows something about your past that may not necessarily show up in your criminal record.</p> <p id="yMJmwu">Only once you clear that entire process can you go to a gun store. Then, you have to show your license and pass additional background checks. If you do that, you can get your gun, which will have to be registered in a database of all the state’s firearms, the <a href="https://mircs.chs.state.ma.us/fa10/action/home?app_context=home&app_action=presentHome" target="_blank">Massachusetts Gun Transactions Portal</a>.</p> <p id="ueJxuA">There are also rules for private sellers: Even if your dad gives you a gun, he has to make sure you have a firearm license and that the transfer of the gun is recorded in the state database — or seriously risk legal troubles of his own, since police may notice he’s not in possession of a firearm the database indicates he owns.</p> <p id="b3Q6NE">It’s a strict system, but one that may offer some answers for <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/10/3/9444417/gun-violence-united-states-america" target="_blank">America’s big gun problem</a>.</p> <p id="e6ifRz">Over the past few months, <a href="https://www.vox.com/a/mass-shootings-america-sandy-hook-gun-violence" target="_blank">mass shootings</a> have repeatedly propelled gun violence into the national spotlight. Meanwhile, studies have found that the US leads developed nations in gun deaths, with one recent <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17792776/us-gun-deaths-global" target="_blank">study</a> in <em>JAMA </em>finding that the US’s civilian gun death rate is nearly four times that of Switzerland, five times that of Canada, 35 times that of the United Kingdom, and 53 times that of Japan.</p> <p id="aBrDHx">Yet there’s been little movement, at least at the federal level, to do something about these trends in the US.</p> <p id="kl4zUi">But surely, I thought, there’s some place in the US getting this right, which could perhaps show a path forward for the rest of the country. So I asked gun policy researchers and experts about which state is doing the most to prevent gun violence. They pointed not to states like New Hampshire and others that have weak restrictions on firearms, but to Massachusetts, which over time built one of the most comprehensive gun control regimes in the US.</p> <p id="Nrmgq0">In particular, experts honed in on Massachusetts’s gun licensing system, which treats the ability to own and use guns much like the ability to own and use a car: with license and registration required.</p> <p id="SHQSvf">The system, experts said, is one of the major reasons Massachusetts <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/02/21/states-most-and-least-gun-violence-see-where-your-state-stacks-up/359395002/" target="_blank">consistently reports</a> the lowest gun death rates in the US. Based on <a href="https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D77" target="_blank">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data</a>, Massachusetts had 3.6 gun deaths per 100,000 people in 2016. In comparison, New Hampshire’s gun death rate was 9.9 per 100,000 people, and the top three worst states for gun deaths in the country — Alaska, Alabama, and Louisiana, all of which have loose gun laws — each had more than 21 gun deaths per 100,000 people.</p> <p id="6QJBAA">As David Hemenway, director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, put it, “All other things equal, [places] where there’s strong laws and with few guns do much better than places where there’s weak laws and lots of guns.”</p> <p id="fpW0Vm">The idea is not to remove the ability to own a gun, which is, for better or worse, a constitutional right in the US. In fact, at least 97 percent of license applications are accepted in the state, according to a 2017 <a href="https://www.northeastern.edu/csshresearch/irj/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2017/10/Massachusetts-Gun-Violence-Reduction-Report.pdf" target="_blank">analysis</a> by Jack McDevitt at Northeastern University and Janice Iwama at the University of Massachusetts in Boston.</p> <p id="Zpsl97">But Massachusetts’s laws create several hurdles that make it far more difficult for people, particularly those with ill intent, to purchase a firearm.</p> <p id="zPZiZi">“The end impact is you decrease gun ownership overall,” Cassandra Crifasi, a researcher (and <a href="https://magazine.jhsph.edu/2017/fall/features/cassandra-crifasi-hopkins-moderate-gun-owner-gun-policy-researcher/index.html" target="_blank">gun owner</a>) at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, told me. “Lots of folks think, ‘Well, it’s probably not worth going through all these hoops to buy firearms, so I’m not going to buy one.’ And then you have fewer firearms around, and less exposure.”</p> <p id="GOKZkb">That helps keep Massachusetts’s gun ownership rates <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/2/16399418/us-gun-violence-statistics-maps-charts" target="_blank">among the lowest in the country</a>. The evidence is pretty clear on the benefit here: Where there are more guns, there are more gun deaths. The research, compiled by the <a href="http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/" target="_blank">Harvard Injury Control Research Center</a>, has found this to be true not just with <a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2015/12/8/9870240/gun-ownership-deaths-homicides" target="_blank">homicides</a>, but also with <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/6/3/8721267/gun-suicide-gun-control" target="_blank">suicides</a> (which in recent years were around 60 percent of US gun deaths), <a href="http://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/guns-domestic-violence-united-states-risk" target="_blank">domestic violence</a>, and even <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/4/9/17205256/gun-violence-us-police-shootings" target="_blank">violence against police</a>.</p> <p id="YuRUwd">For the rest of the country, this could make Massachusetts a model — a way to combat a deadly problem with mass shootings and gun violence in general that, among developed nations, is fairly unique to the US.</p> <p id="RoN5MO">“I’m just so happy to live in Massachusetts,” Hemenway told me. “There are several reasons, but this is one of them. It’s just a lot safer.”</p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13378785/GUN_CONTROL_MASS2.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642505119_9859_850930" data-cdata='{"asset_id":13378785,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1920" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/iermq5kuFSsqV_yzvEPZe8NUMf0=/0x0:1920x1081/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1920x1081):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13378785/GUN_CONTROL_MASS2.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> </figure> <h3 id="ppslhV" style="font-size:1.02em">In Massachusetts, getting a gun takes time</h3> <p id="5RmxOp">The licensing system is not necessarily the be-all, end-all of gun laws, but it helps exemplify the comprehensive approach that Massachusetts has taken to gun violence.</p> <p id="nqfsZI">Under <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Federal-Gun-Laws-101-Factsheet-GLC.pdf" target="_blank">federal law</a>, all that’s required to buy a gun is a background check, which scans for certain felonies, some kinds of domestic abuse, and some documented mental health issues. Waiting periods are rarely applied. And even then, the “gun show loophole” — a name given to the private seller loophole described above — provides a sidestep to the federal background check. States can pass requirements far above and beyond federal law, but most don’t do anything significant.</p> <p id="kjN5Fe">Massachusetts is not most states.</p> <p id="VauiCz">To buy a gun, one first must have a license to carry (LTC) or firearms identification card (FID). The LTC encompasses all firearms, including handguns, while the FID only covers rifles and shotguns. The minimum age for an LTC is 21. For the FID, it’s 18 — or 15 with parental permission. Both documents are good for six years. The vast majority of people, police chiefs across the state told me, apply for an LTC since it’s more expansive.</p> <p id="uSdEvp">To obtain either of these, someone first must <a href="https://www.mass.gov/how-to/apply-for-a-firearms-license" target="_blank">pay a $100 fee</a> and submit some paperwork to their local police department, where they’re also photographed, fingerprinted, and interviewed. Their information is sent through a state background check system known as MIRCS, which looks at <a href="http://lawcenter.giffords.org/prohibited-purchasers-generally-in-massachusetts/" target="_blank">criminal, mental health, and other records</a>. Police can also run other checks, such as via Coplink, which shares information between police departments.</p> <p id="Vd93jN">Applicants also have to take a gun safety course, which teaches safe storage and handling of a firearm but does not involve live firing.</p> <p id="xh5ipO">If applicants make it through all of that, police departments can also use some discretion to decide whether the applicant is a threat to public safety — what’s known as the “suitability” standard. For an FID, police chiefs <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/licensing-of-gun-owners-or-purchasers-in-massachusetts/" target="_blank">must petition a court</a>. For an LTC, police chiefs can deem an applicant unsuitable on their own. </p> <p id="fIdJLu">The whole process usually takes two to six weeks, depending on the police department and circumstances involved.</p> <p id="bLQcqu">The idea behind the suitability standard is that there are some things that may not pop up in a person’s criminal or mental health record, but are relevant to whether someone can own a firearm. “Let’s say we’ve been to a house the last four years because the guy is passed out drunk on the front lawn,” Police Chief Bill Brooks of Norwood, Massachusetts, told me. “That would not be a statutory disqualifier. … But it would indicate — to me, anyway — that this person is unsuitable to hold a firearm.”</p> <p id="1skKpc">Police do not use the suitability standard very often. Among the police departments I spoke to, they said upwards of 95 percent of applications are accepted. It’s only in a few cases where there’s a denial, and most of the time it’s an automatic denial, when a disqualifier pops up in a background check.</p> <p id="lMLwyh">Deputy Superintendent Pauline Wells at the Cambridge, Massachusetts, Police Department told me in August that she only had to use the suitability standard once in her past year on the job in charge of the local licensing process. In that case, a woman with a gun license was arrested. And while the woman was not convicted of a crime (which could automatically disqualify her from a license), information in an affidavit for a restraining order “was so disturbing that we thought that it would be in the best interest of public safety not to renew her license.”</p> <p id="I7ZQXg">“We don’t take it lightly,” Wells said. “Even if we suspend or take something from someone, we can give it back to them.”</p> <p id="4T16l6">If applicants disagree with the police chief’s suitability decision with an LTC, they can appeal it to a court, which can decide if a chief’s decision was “arbitrary and capricious.”</p> <p id="ESyRLK">Once licensed, people can then actually buy guns. Licensed gun dealers are required to ensure someone has a license — by scanning the person’s card or fingerprints — and run a background check. And the purchase is recorded in the state’s Gun Transactions Portal.</p> <p id="kFMgT5">Private sellers — essentially, sellers who aren’t licensed — <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/retention-of-sales-background-check-records-in-massachusetts/" target="_blank">aren’t allowed</a> to sell more than four guns a year. They also must conduct a real-time check of gun licenses, and they must record transfers in the state’s <a href="https://www.mass.gov/how-to/record-a-private-sale-or-transfer" target="_blank">portal</a>.</p> <p id="6HC9ne">Gun owners are required to store their firearms with a trigger lock or safe. If any guns are lost or stolen, owners legally have to report the loss or theft; failure to do so can result in the revocation of a license or even prison time. </p> <p id="orRDyf">If a licensee gets in future trouble with the law or other red flags are raised, police can suspend a license on the spot through an electronic system. “If he were to go into a gun store tomorrow, that sale would be blocked,” Brooks said. </p> <p id="74OnPe">In case of revocation, the gun owner would also be required to give up all firearms. Police can enforce this with a warrant if needed, which is made easier since cops have access to the Gun Transactions Portal to see what firearms someone has.</p> <p id="10HfKF">Arlington Police Chief Fred Ryan cited the example of a domestic violence case. If the police are called in, “we can, on the spot, temporarily suspend someone’s gun license and remove the firearms from the home if there’s any information leading us to believe that there’s domestic abuse going on.”</p> <p id="l1W66G">The police chiefs I spoke to were generally positive about the state’s system. Brooks called it “excellent.” Chelsea Police Chief Brian Kyes said the system is “balanced” and that “we have a good system in place.”</p> <p id="dc5mjt">Still, this system is not without shortcomings. Despite generally liking it, Ryan pointed out that police have access to records for state mental health facilities, but not private mental health care records. In his view, if the state is already disclosing state institution records, there’s no reason to treat other records differently just because someone went to a private facility. “If you’re wealthy and go to McLean Hospital on your parent’s dime, nobody ever knows about it. It’s inherently unfair,” he said.</p> <p id="FSE22y"><a href="https://lawguida.com/home/about-2/" target="_blank">Jason Guida</a> was previously the director of the Massachusetts Firearms Records Bureau — where he worked with police departments on how to license gun owners — and is now an attorney helping people appeal police licensing decisions. He argues that the current legal standard makes it too difficult to appeal a license rejection decision, by requiring appellants to prove a police chief’s decision was arbitrary and capricious.</p> <p id="JEDG6W">“For many of my clients, this is putting all the pieces back together — this is a part of them, it’s a right that they believe in and makes them whole when they are able to obtain it,” Guida said. “In many of these cases, you’re talking about things that happened many years ago — in some cases, juvenile offenses, things that kids did at 14 or 15 years old — that are now haunting them 15 or 20 years later.”</p> <p id="gg05oV">Brooks, who’s faced Guida in court before, said it’s true that appellants have to clear a high bar to get a license. “But I happen to think the system is good because the legislature opted to not set up a system where a judge would second-guess the chief,” Brooks said. </p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13378845/GUN_CONTROL_MASS3.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642505119_5374_850931" data-cdata='{"asset_id":13378845,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1921" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-TQEYnG_e1EjWfwT2_KhvE5YReA=/0x0:1921x1081/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1921x1081):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13378845/GUN_CONTROL_MASS3.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> </figure> <h3 id="7VcEfM" style="font-size:1.02em">A growing body of research supports the gun licensing system</h3> <p id="EJUE4r">Several studies have looked at permit-to-purchase systems similar to Massachusetts’s over the years, and the findings have consistently been positive.</p> <p id="yxLhbb">The big studies so far come out of Connecticut and Missouri. In Connecticut, researchers looked at what happened after the state passed a permit-to-purchase law for handguns — finding a <a href="http://www.taleoftwostates.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Connecticut-Study-Rudolph_AJPH201411682_Final.pdf" target="_blank">40 percent drop</a> in gun homicides and <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9242147/gun-control-connecticut-suicides" target="_blank">15 percent reduction</a> in handgun suicides. In Missouri, researchers looked at the aftermath of the state <em>repealing</em> its handgun permit-to-purchase law — finding a <a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/johns-hopkins-center-for-gun-policy-and-research/_pdfs/effects-of-missouris-repeal-of-its-handgun-purchaser-licensing-law-on-homicides.pdf" target="_blank">23 percent increase</a> in firearm homicides but no significant increase in non-firearm homicides, as well as <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9242147/gun-control-connecticut-suicides" target="_blank">16 percent higher handgun suicide rates</a>.</p> <p id="pvkg9V">Crifasi, of Johns Hopkins, said that researchers haven’t fully teased out what makes gun licensing requirements effective. She suggested, though, that licensing laws work because they’re “increasing accountability — the process you have to go through to be able to buy a gun, the training that’s required, teaching people how to store their guns appropriately, and when they can use their guns in an appropriate way.”</p> <p id="3WFPfk">“I can say with a large deal of certainty that requiring a permit is effective,” Crifasi said. “We just don’t know yet which piece of the permit works the best.”</p> <p id="yx7FXE">Crifasi can say that with certainty because she, along with her colleague Daniel Webster, have done a lot of the research on gun licensing laws, consistently finding that these measures reduce gun deaths. In fact, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-018-0273-3?wt_mc=Internal.Event.1.SEM.ArticleAuthorOnlineFirst" target="_blank">one of their recent studies</a> had a finding that may surprise gun control advocates: In urban counties, comprehensive background checks are associated with <em>higher </em>levels of firearm homicides, but licensing rules like Massachusetts’s are associated with lower levels of gun homicides.</p> <p id="Ct5pYU">“Now, we don’t think that requiring people to undergo background checks is actually leading to increases in violence,” Crifasi said. </p> <p id="0iDCy9">She explained that states that passed comprehensive background check laws likely did so because they already had relatively high levels of gun violence. Her analysis found that background checks likely leveled off a rise in gun violence, but background checks “weren’t sufficient on their own to make a substantive impact. That’s why we feel very strongly that if states are going to be tough, they should be passing permit-to-purchase — because we’ve seen repeatedly that there’s strong protective effects.”</p> <p id="eqiGMO">The idea also has strong public support: A 2013 <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1300512?query=featured_home&&" target="_blank">survey</a>, published in <em>The New England Journal of Medicine</em>, found that more than 77 percent of Americans would back a gun licensing policy.</p> <p id="hocO4T">Massachusetts, however, goes beyond a typical licensing scheme by giving police chiefs extra discretion in the process through the suitability standard. Webster, who’s director at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, said this is a key component of Massachusetts’s law. “It’s another opportunity for law enforcement to identify individuals who might be too risky to have guns,” he said.</p> <p id="cGcenK">“When people talk about gun policy and who is or is not legally qualified to have a gun, they really oversimplify it,” Webster explained. “They paint you two caricatures — one is you’re a law-abiding gun owner who’s never done anything wrong or crossed the line, and then the other side is this hardened criminal who’s terrible forever. Well, guess what? The world doesn’t look like that. There’s all sorts of folks who are in this middle range.”</p> <p id="HihJ4v">Discretion, he argued, allows police to wade into that middle ground even when the law might not explicitly ban a person from owning a gun. One example: Perhaps a person’s wife recently told a police officer that someone has suicidal or homicidal thoughts. If that person then comes in and tries to get a license, the police chief could use that discretion to deny the application, even if expressing violent thoughts is not explicitly disqualifying under the law.</p> <p id="qJy7qj">Philip Cook, co-author of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/7/31/17634558/3d-printed-guns-trump-cody-wilson-defcad" target="_blank"><em>The Gun Debate</em></a> and a gun policy expert at Duke University, said that the discretion that’s possible under the law “allows police to exercise common sense.” That, he added, is an “important and redeeming virtue of the law.”</p> <p id="MzYOpY">Crifasi cautioned that we still need more research on the discretion piece, but she agreed that it very likely plays a role because “state and local law enforcement often have a better sense of who’s risky.”</p> <p id="M6L50K">“Maybe a police officer has been dispatched to a house for some kind of domestic violence multiple times, but charges are never pressed,” she said. “When police think about the next time they respond to a call at that house, do they really want to have a firearm there?”</p> <p id="6RWfO6">Chelsea Parsons, vice president of gun violence prevention policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, raised concerns that giving police departments too much discretion can lead to racial discrimination. She argued that discretion may not be necessary, so much as the process “of requiring a few extra steps on the part of a prospective buyer,” especially if one of those steps is having to go to a police department and filing official paperwork — a possible deterrent to would-be criminals, whether cops have a lot of discretion or not.</p> <p id="A8jWKl">Hemenway, of Harvard, also acknowledged the risk of racial discrimination. But, he said, “We give discretion to the police in all sorts of things. This is just another thing.” Rather than giving up on police discretion altogether (which would make police work very difficult), he suggested it may be better to adopt some general guidelines and use the available appeals process to hold cops accountable.</p> <p id="tgzvXc">For Webster, the bottom line is the final outcome: “At the end of the day, not many people in Massachusetts who have something in their background — of dangerousness, violence, [or] recklessness — have guns available to them.”</p> <div id="qBTvKE"> <!-- ######## BEGIN VOLUME VIDEO ######## --> <!-- ######## END VOLUME VIDEO ######## --> </div> <h3 id="W0URzO" style="font-size:1.02em">It’s not just one law. It’s a lot of policies working together.</h3> <p id="5utdH3">The licensing system is not the only reason for Massachusetts’s low rates of gun deaths. Even focusing exclusively on gun laws, experts emphasized that the state has a flurry of systems, laws, and programs working together to help keep gun deaths low.</p> <p id="WAxeqw">Parsons said Massachusetts shows that “it’s not a matter of passing one type of new law,” but “looking across the issue and across the problem of gun violence in a particular state and figuring out what are all the different approaches that can be taken to help get at this problem.”</p> <p id="Fbndya">Crifasi agreed: “In a state like Massachusetts, with a really robust set of policies related to firearms, it’s probably some interaction between these policies in addition to the individual policies.”</p> <p id="uqu5me">There’s research that supports this. A 2016 <a href="https://epirev.oxfordjournals.org/content/38/1/140.abstract" target="_blank">review</a> of 130 studies in 10 countries, published in <a href="https://epirev.oxfordjournals.org/content/38/1.toc" target="_blank"><em>Epidemiologic Reviews</em></a><em>,</em> <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11120184/gun-control-study-international-evidence" target="_blank">found</a> that new legal restrictions on owning and purchasing guns tended to be followed by a drop in gun violence — a strong indicator that restricting access to firearms can save lives.</p> <p id="eXDeEu">But the research emphasized that the key here was not likely one law, but the “potential synergistic effects, or the aggregated individual effects of multiple laws, when they are simultaneously implemented within a narrow time window.”</p> <p id="WewiV2">Take the example of Australia. In response to a grisly mass shooting in 1996, the country <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/8/27/9212725/australia-buyback" target="_blank">passed a legislative package</a> that strengthened its gun laws across the board. In popular media, the part of this program that’s most emphasized was Australia’s mandatory buyback program, through which hundreds of thousands of newly banned guns were confiscated. But Australia also set up a national gun registry and required a permit for all new firearm purchases, among <a href="https://www.loc.gov/law/help/firearms-control/australia.php" target="_blank">other changes</a>.</p> <p id="iEOQyH">The 2016 research review concluded that Australia’s new law did reduce gun deaths. But “it wasn’t the buyback program itself that had this strong effect,” Julian Santaella-Tenorio, lead author, told me. “It was this combination of the laws.”</p> <p id="U9xnRw">Webster cautioned, though, that “it’s not just having a bunch of gun laws; it’s having the right ones.” He cited measures that seem to be particularly effective: licensing systems, background check systems that are truly thorough and comprehensive, restrictions on concealed carry in public, and stricter regulation and oversight of gun sellers. </p> <p id="I49pt0">To this end, a <a href="https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html" target="_blank">review of the research</a> published by the nonprofit RAND Corporation earlier this year <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/2/17050610/guns-shootings-studies-rand-charts-maps" target="_blank">found</a> more evidence for some types of gun policies than others. For example, the review found evidence that background checks and child access prevention laws reduce gun deaths, but it found no evidence — in either direction — that reporting requirements for firearm sales or lost or stolen guns increase or decrease gun deaths. (Meanwhile, the review found evidence that laws that loosen access to firearms or relax the use of guns, like concealed carry measures and <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/7/23/17602312/stand-your-ground-florida-michael-drejka-markeis-mcglockton" target="_blank">“stand your ground” laws</a>, lead to more gun violence.)</p> <p id="o0T3CW">Hemenway agreed that some policies are better than others. But, he added, “I think hardly anything is a big deal. I’m convinced that large numbers of small things add up.”</p> <p id="Un97jG">Drawing on his history in the injury research world, Hemenway drew a comparison to car crashes. Deaths caused by car crashes have dropped considerably over the decades, he said, but it wasn’t because of one policy. It was a mix of new laws and rules for airbags, seatbelts, collapsible steering columns, changes to roads, drunk driving, and much more.</p> <p id="RPt5XO">To this point, there are multiple issues within gun violence. An <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/3/17174160/assault-weapons-ar-15-ban" target="_blank">assault weapons ban</a> likely won’t have an effect on suicides, gang shootings, or domestic violence, for example, but it may have a significant effect on mass shooting deaths. Other policies may have different effects in different categories.</p> <p id="A9zSC8">Wherever researchers ultimately land on the effect of individual laws versus the whole picture, there’s little debate that Massachusetts has a fairly robust, effective set of gun laws. That includes not just the licensing system, but also a safe storage law, the registration portal, legal requirements for reporting lost or stolen guns, restrictions on private sellers, bans on assault weapons and large-capacity ammunition magazines, a list of prohibited gun buyers that <a href="http://lawcenter.giffords.org/prohibited-purchasers-generally-in-massachusetts/" target="_blank">extends</a> <a href="http://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-laws/policy-areas/who-can-have-a-gun/domestic-violence-firearms/" target="_blank">far beyond</a> <a href="http://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-laws/policy-areas/who-can-have-a-gun/categories-of-prohibited-people/#federal" target="_blank">federal law</a>, oversight on gun dealers that goes above the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/03/us/atf-gun-store-violations.html" target="_blank">federal standard</a>, and much more.</p> <p id="rX3jLv">There are also policies that go beyond gun control, including <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/2/15/10981274/crime-violence-policies-guns" target="_blank">youth intervention programs and evidence-based policing strategies like focused deterrence</a>. Massachusetts has done a good job in this area: A 2017 <a href="http://lawcenter.giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Investing-in-Intervention-02.14.18.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> from the Giffords Law Center found that the state led the US, along with Connecticut and New York, in investing in evidence-based gun violence prevention strategies.</p> <p id="mvT3FS">All of these policies work together to make Massachusetts one of the safest states in the US when it comes to gun deaths.</p> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13379235/GUN_CONTROL_MASS4.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642505119_7770_850932" data-cdata='{"asset_id":13379235,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1920" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rJ31nPu2RNqwvK7_2N2I5IH-TOU=/0x0:1920x1081/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1920x1081):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13379235/GUN_CONTROL_MASS4.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> </figure> <h3 id="1qZ0lT" style="font-size:1.02em">A single state can only do so much</h3> <p id="EAL6AE">The reality, though, is Massachusetts has not vanquished gun deaths. It still has some gun violence, and its rates of gun deaths are still higher than that of other developed nations, like the United Kingdom and Japan.</p> <p id="qAH2yV">Part of that is the national context that Massachusetts falls under. While Massachusetts certainly has strong gun laws, much of the US — including some of Massachusetts’s New England neighbors, like New Hampshire — does not. For a criminal or gun trafficker, this creates a loophole: If they want easy access to a gun, they can travel for a few hours to a state with laxer laws and purchase a gun without any of the obstacles presented by Massachusetts’s laws.</p> <p id="J4AJy0">There’s good evidence this is happening in Massachusetts: In 2017, almost half of guns used in crimes in Boston that were confiscated by the police department <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/06/14/last-year-boston-about-half-all-guns-traced-police-had-out-state-origins/E9KQAFBmidrFpvID2MJGhL/story.html" target="_blank">were traced to out-of-state origins</a>. Only 21 percent were proven to come from inside the state, while the rest had an unknown origin. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9125.12187" target="_blank">Other</a> <a href="https://www.rsfjournal.org/doi/full/10.7758/RSF.2017.3.5.04" target="_blank">reports</a> have linked crime guns to outside the state, including New Hampshire, Maine, and Southern states along the I-95 corridor.</p> <p id="lbBjNX">This isn’t just a Massachusetts problem. From <a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-16-223" target="_blank">Mexico</a> to <a href="http://www.chicagobusiness.com/Assets/downloads/20151102-Tracing-Guns.pdf" target="_blank">Chicago</a> to <a href="https://targettrafficking.ag.ny.gov/#part1" target="_blank">New York</a>, places with strong gun laws frequently see firearms come in from places with weak gun laws. </p> <p id="6IRfNI">“The best thing that could be done is to strengthen the gun laws in the states around us,” Brooks, the Norwood police chief, said. “Some of our gun violence comes from firearms that have come in from out of state.”</p> <p id="iXDXcd">That doesn’t mean state-level laws are totally ineffective. Webster argued that the small number of guns used in crimes coming from inside the state is “actually a good thing — it shows that there’s local scarcity. If you have to link into individuals coming across state lines and are exposing themselves not only to state trafficking laws but federal trafficking laws and all the costs of that, we tend to find that the prices in those illegal markets are notably higher.” Those hurdles, he added, likely keep guns out of reach for a significant number of people.</p> <p id="cgFnCw">But the national patchwork of laws does mitigate Massachusetts’s otherwise strong laws. This is a problem that could only be fixed if all states passed stricter laws or if the federal government did.</p> <p id="dHKDum">“If all the states were like Massachusetts,” Hemenway suggested, “there’d probably be the same amount of crime, but there just wouldn’t be as much gun crime — so it wouldn’t be as dangerous, and fewer people would die, and fewer people would have traumatic spinal cord injuries and traumatic brain injuries.”</p> <p id="z8JiUq">Even if the rest of the country were to follow in Massachusetts’s footsteps, though, the laws would take time to take effect. One reason for that: <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/6/21/17488024/gun-ownership-violence-shootings-us" target="_blank">Some surveys</a> show there are already more guns than people in the country. </p> <p id="8lRSks">The high number of guns helps explain why the US has far more gun deaths, although <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/8/27/9217163/america-guns-europe" target="_blank">not more crime in general</a>, than other developed nations. People of every country get into arguments and fights with friends, family, and peers. But in the US, it’s much more likely that someone will get angry during an argument and be able to pull out a gun and shoot someone. And since guns are deadlier than other weapons, that leads to far more deaths than America would otherwise have.</p> <p id="WQJMsJ">But it also makes it difficult to deal with future gun violence. Even if a state passes a new law restricting who can obtain a gun, the abundance of firearms creates a huge loophole that a would-be criminal could tap into, through theft or an illegal purchase.</p> <p id="aZUZgb">This is, in fact, one reason Massachusetts is successful: It’s never had that many guns, because it’s long restricted their use and possession. Its current system has been decades in the making, steadily strengthened over the years as the issue of gun control has gotten more and more public attention. But even before that, the state has a history of regulating firearms; Boston, for example, <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/10/05/disarming-the-nra/" target="_blank">banned the storage of a loaded firearm</a> in any home or warehouse going back to colonial days, and <a href="https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/flr/vol73/iss2/3/" target="_blank">set limits</a> on the possession and transportation of gunpowder.</p> <p id="0DR3aj">That’s why Hemenway said that a key to gun laws is not just having them in place, but making sure they have enough time to take root. Guns, after all, are durable; no one should expect guns that are or will be used in crime to simply disappear the day after imposing new restrictions on them. But over time, guns do wear out, and people will pursue new models of guns — and, slowly but surely, restrictions make it more difficult for new firearms to end up in the wrong hands.</p> <p id="Coh3Iz">Beyond gun laws, there are all sorts of factors that contribute to gun deaths. Urbanization, poverty, overall crime, alcohol and drug use, and cultural forces are just a few examples.</p> <p id="1KJdwA">But based on the research, Massachusetts’s strict gun laws play a major role — offering a model for how to reduce gun deaths.</p> <p id="UkQTEH">“That’s what this is all about,” Cook, of Duke University, said. “Saving lives.”</p> <div> <hr class="p-entry-hr"> <p><strong><a href="http://vox.com/pages/support-now?itm_campaign=default&itm_medium=article&itm_source=article-footer" target="_blank">Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?</a></strong></p> <p> Millions turn to Vox to understand what’s happening in the news. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower through understanding. Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all. <a href="http://vox.com/pages/support-now?itm_campaign=default&itm_medium=article&itm_source=article-footer" target="_blank"> Please consider making a contribution to Vox today to help us keep our work free for all</a>. </p> </div> </div>
Published: 3 years ago
<div> <div> <figure> <span class="e-image__inner"> <span class="e-image__image " data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62669434/GettyImages_941320210.0.jpg"> <picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1642507393_1344_1905295" data-cdata='{"image_id":62669434,"ratio":"*"}'> <img alt="Alcohol, neatly displayed at a bar." data-upload-width="3470" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1YFhiU9xW7XwgF_NXSW0lT_uqik=/0x0:3470x2313/1200x800/filters:focal(1413x1612:1967x2166)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62669434/GettyImages_941320210.0.jpg" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);" title="Alcohol, neatly displayed at a bar." style="max-width:100%" onerror="parent.removeElement(this);"> </picture> </span> </span> <span class="e-image__meta"> <cite>EyesWideOpen/Getty Images</cite> </span> </figure> <div> <p id="mo6xCj">It’s time to raise the alcohol tax.</p> <p id="e0CTf4">Yeah, yeah, this isn’t going to win me many friends at parties. But there’s a strong case this is something America should do. It’s a simple policy change that won’t significantly affect a huge amount of people (particularly those who drink more responsibly), but will save thousands of lives every year in the US.</p> <p id="1Plsfh">To start, let’s put America’s problem with alcohol in context: As of 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact-sheets/alcohol-use.htm" target="_blank">estimated</a> that excessive drinking causes 88,000 deaths each year in the US.</p> <p id="17Lq68">If you care about gun violence, or car crashes, or the <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/3/16079772/opioid-epidemic-drug-overdoses" target="_blank">current drug overdose crisis</a>, or HIV/AIDS, you should care about alcohol — because alcohol’s annual death toll is higher than deaths due to guns, cars, drug overdoses, or HIV/AIDS ever have been in a single year in America.</p> <p id="FM4r1E">There’s a good chance that the CDC’s estimate is an undercount. It’s eight years old at this point, and since then, at least some kinds of alcohol-related deaths <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/27/16557550/alcohol-tobacco-opioids-epidemic-emergency" target="_blank">have increased</a> too. Some experts have told me that they would not be surprised if the annual death toll linked to alcohol is now above 100,000.</p> <p id="Mf8PY0">And the death toll only captures part of the concern with alcohol. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/2/16181734/12-steps-aa-na-studies" target="_blank">Addiction</a>, domestic violence, sexual assault, and other linked crime and health problems are also significant.</p> <p id="7aJBai">Dealing with these problems doesn’t require going back to Prohibition. The evidence, instead, shows that an alcohol tax would go a long way.</p> <p id="dexPfX">“The alcohol excise tax is one of the most studied areas in terms of alcohol policy,” Traci Toomey, an epidemiologist focused on alcohol policy at the University of Minnesota, told me. “The preponderance of the research evidence, looking at the best studies, suggests that … as the price of alcohol goes up, we would expect a range of problems to decrease, and vice versa.”</p> <p id="Pb1nOY">Based on the research, a higher alcohol tax would reduce drinking and likely excessive drinking in particular, saving thousands of lives and preventing all sorts of crime and public health problems. This research dates back years, and there’s a lot of it, Toomey said, making a tax hike one of the most evidence-backed ideas in alcohol policy.</p> <p id="aZqAVj">Yet Congress has moved in the opposite direction in recent years. In the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/3/16600770/alcohol-tax-increase" target="_blank">tax law</a> passed last year by Republicans in the House and Senate, a slew of changes effectively cut the alcohol tax by 16 percent, according to an <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/measuring-the-loss-of-life-from-the-senates-tax-cuts-for-alcohol-producers/" target="_blank">analysis</a> by Adam Looney at the Brookings Institution. Looney estimated that “the legislation will cause … approximately 1,550 total alcohol-related deaths annually from all causes.”</p> <p id="kdJjAv">The measure followed years of the alcohol tax getting little attention from state and federal policymakers. Taxes have been in place for decades at both the federal and state level, but they have been so neglected for decades that they haven’t even kept up with inflation and general increases in income.</p> <p id="tuz6Mw">For Americans, this means that alcohol is cheaper. But it also means that more of us are dying and suffering as a result.</p> <h3 id="GuLOEB" style="font-size:1.02em">The research is clear: a higher alcohol tax would save lives</h3> <p id="LLWgtn">Since the end of Prohibition, the federal government and states have imposed taxes on alcohol. The taxes are usually broken down between beer, wine, and spirits. They’re <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/state-liquor-tax-rates-are-stuck-mud" target="_blank">typically excise taxes</a> that add a certain amount — say, 10 cents — to a specified amount of a drink or product, although some places, like <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/4/15/11433526/alcohol-tax-maryland-study" target="_blank">Maryland</a>, also have a percent-based sales tax in place.</p> <p id="EgWe4M">The research on the effects of those taxes points to one conclusion.</p> <p id="a6noCX">“The literature is really overwhelming,” Alex Wagenaar, a researcher at Emory University who’s studied alcohol policy for years, told me. “The tax influences how much people buy and how much people drink, and that ripples then through to the burden of alcohol-related disease and injury on our society.”</p> <p id="jK3yMh">It’s not just a few studies. Wagenaar noted that people have been “looking at this for half a century.” Scientists who have aggregated the studies in those decades have reported good results for the alcohol tax.</p> <p id="PHOKGi">One of the best reviews of the evidence comes from David Roodman, a senior adviser and researcher for the Open Philanthropy Project. <a href="https://blog.givewell.org/2015/07/30/could-raising-alcohol-taxes-save-lives/" target="_blank">Roodman’s analysis</a> found that the “literature on this topic is large,” and that “the preponderance of the evidence says that higher prices do correlate with less drinking and lower incidence of problems such as cirrhosis deaths.” Most importantly, he concluded that “a 10% price increase would cut the death rate [from alcohol-caused diseases by] 9-25%. For the US in 2010, this represents 2,000-6,000 averted deaths/year.”</p> <p id="EpiX2z">To put it another way, increasing the cost of a six-pack of Bud Light by <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com/?id=66960X1516588&xs=1&url=http://www.wineaccess.com/file/store/totalwine/beer-corridorwine.pdf" has-subtag="true" data-cdata='{"rewritten_url":"https://go.redirectingat.com/?id=66960X1516588\u0026xs=1\u0026url=http://www.wineaccess.com/file/store/totalwine/beer-corridorwine.pdf\u0026xcust=___vx__p_17894884__m_m-placeholder__s_s-placeholder__t_w__c_c-placeholder__r_r-placeholder__d_d-placeholder","subtag_max_length":50,"subtag_delim_length":3,"subtag_key":"xcust","subtag_data":{"id":"66960X1516588","xs":"1","url":"http://www.wineaccess.com/file/store/totalwine/beer-corridorwine.pdf","xcust":"___vx__p_17894884__m_m-placeholder__s_s-placeholder__t_w__c_c-placeholder__r_r-placeholder__d_d-placeholder"},"encode_subtag":false}' target="_blank">50 cents</a> — and other drinks by similar levels — would probably save thousands of lives every single year.</p> <p id="ebtugE">This is a conservative estimate. It counts only deaths from alcohol-caused diseases. The number of saved lives would be higher if it accounted for alcohol-related deaths due to violence, car crashes, and other problems.</p> <p id="YSiGFm">In those other areas, a 2010 <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2009.186007" target="_blank">review of the research</a> from Wagenaar, Amy Tobler, and Kelli Komro, published in the <em>American Journal of Public Health</em>, offered promising evidence: It found that “doubling the alcohol tax would reduce alcohol-related mortality by an average of 35%, traffic crash deaths by 11%, sexually transmitted disease by 6%, violence by 2%, and crime by 1.4%.” (Doubling the tax might sound like a lot, but in some jurisdictions, that could involve raising the price by as little as 10 cents a drink.)</p> <p id="7YUeE0">Another <a href="https://www.thecommunityguide.org/sites/default/files/assets/EffectivenessTaxPolicyInterventionsReducingExcessiveAlcoholConsumptionRelatedHarms1.pdf" target="_blank">review of the research</a>, from the Task Force on Community Preventive Services in 2010, reached similar conclusions: </p> <blockquote><p id="DBQ1aI">Nearly all studies, including those with different study designs, found that there was an inverse relationship between the tax or price of alcohol and indices of excessive drinking or alcohol-related health outcomes. Among studies restricted to underage populations, most found that increased taxes were also significantly associated with reduced consumption and alcohol-related harms.</p></blockquote> <p id="zHYbnR">Mark Kleiman, a drug and criminal justice policy expert at New York University’s Marron Institute, argues that the research on the alcohol tax is very clear.</p> <p id="IHqXOs">“The single most effective thing you can to reduce crime right away is to raise the price of alcohol,” he told me. “If you talk either about crime policy or drug policy, that’s got to be the No. 1 recommendation — just because it’s so easy. It doesn’t cost you anything. You don’t have to kick in anybody’s door. You just have to change a number in the tax code and crime goes down.”</p> <p id="HnBnhb">As Kleiman noted, one of the most remarkable aspects of the alcohol tax is how simple it is. It doesn’t require setting up a new police agency, building new facilities that will be used to enforce the law, or changing a bunch of regulations. The infrastructure for a higher alcohol tax is already there in the tax code, ready to be used by lawmakers.</p> <h3 id="JIqlWt" style="font-size:1.02em">Alcohol taxes lost a lot of value due to inflation</h3> <p id="85N3c4">Alcohol taxes have decreased over the past few decades. That’s not just because lawmakers have cut the taxes, but because state and federal taxes haven’t kept up with inflation.</p> <p id="wd88tK">A 2013 <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23597808" target="_blank">study</a>, published in the <em>American Journal of Preventive Medicine</em>, calculated how much alcohol costs relative to people’s income:</p> <blockquote><p id="pDOXqS">One drink per day of the cheapest brand of spirits required 0.29% of U.S. mean per capita disposable income in 2011 as compared to 1.02% in 1980, 2.24% in 1970, 3.61% in 1960, and 4.46% in 1950. One drink per day of a popular beer required 0.96% of income in 2010 compared to 4.87% in 1950, whereas a low-priced wine in 2011 required 0.36% of income compared to 1.05% in 1978.</p></blockquote> <p id="l6eyRH">The study found that most of the effective price drop was due to inflation overwhelming alcohol taxes, making it so the taxes were one-sixth to one-third of their inflation-adjusted value in the early 2010s compared to the 1950s.</p> <p id="pWy9CF">In other words, alcohol is extremely cheap nowadays, compared to the historical average, and low taxes are largely to blame.</p> <p id="Hrsw1k">“Following Prohibition, taxes were put on that were pretty substantial, especially on liquor but on beer and wine as well,” William Kerr, a senior scientist at the Alcohol Research Group and lead author of the 2013 study, told me. “But starting in the ’60s, the updates didn’t happen, either federally or [in the] states. And starting in the late ’60s and especially in the ’70s, there was really high inflation. So that was the transition from high taxes to lower.”</p> <p id="yVZ7O3">An alcohol tax increase, then, could amount to simply going back to the rates of the 1950s, and then pegging the rates to inflation so they don’t lose value over time. In that context, perhaps the idea isn’t so radical.</p> <h3 id="7xSMLJ" style="font-size:1.02em">A higher tax would likely impact heavy drinkers the most</h3> <p id="O85pMG">A common argument against the alcohol tax is that it punishes everyone, even those who don’t drink excessively. While it is true that a general price increase will affect everyone to some degree, the alcohol tax is structured in such a way that the great majority of people who drink responsibly will barely feel it.</p> <p id="6vvTrX">Research backs this up. According to another 2013 <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3794433/" target="_blank">study</a> published in the <em>American Journal of Preventive Medicine</em>, higher-risk drinkers would pay nearly 83 percent of an effective tax increase if the alcohol tax was increased by 25 cents per drink. <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(13)62417-4.pdf" target="_blank">Other</a> <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2016/15_0450.htm" target="_blank">studies</a> have reached similar conclusions.</p> <p id="HD4qXC">There’s a simple logic for this: Imagine if the alcohol tax was increased by 25 cents per drink. For someone who drinks casually — say, one drink a day, or seven drinks a week — that would amount to $1.75 more a week, or about $91 more a year. It’s not nothing, but it’s not a huge amount.</p> <p id="90FpEd">But if someone drinks heavily — say, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/09/25/think-you-drink-a-lot-this-chart-will-tell-you/" target="_blank">10 drinks a day, or 70 drinks a week</a> — that would amount to $17.50 a week or around $910 a year. That’s much, much more significant.</p> <p id="NlbIid">“Casual drinkers aren’t spending enough on booze to care,” Kleiman explained. “But the guy who’s spending half his income on booze cares.”</p> <p id="sS1vr4">Still, there is a catch. “Heavy drinkers are really motivated, so even if it is having an impact, they might look for ways around it,” Kerr said. So a heavy drinker could find a cheaper product, or start drinking more from home instead of a bar. “But, even so, it’s going to end up impacting the amount to some degree for some of them.”</p> <p id="wHrlj6">To the extent that a higher alcohol tax does impact more casual drinkers, it’s important to consider, Wagenaar argued, that excessive drinkers already impose some costs on those who drink less. The CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact-sheets/alcohol-use.htm" target="_blank">estimated</a> that, in 2010, the economic costs of excessive drinking totaled $249 billion, or $2.05 a drink. The impact is felt across society through more crime, drunk driving, health problems, and more — and casual drinkers are already paying for it, without a higher tax that disproportionately hits heavy drinkers recouping or preventing the costs.</p> <p id="7mI6rj">“Why should taxpayers that drink lightly or not at all be subsidizing the heavy drinkers? That’s the situation that we have now, with the taxes being as low as they are,” Wagenaar said.</p> <p id="tdLeRy">At the same time, heavier drinkers also stand to benefit from a tax. Because they drink so much, they’re more likely to expose themselves to alcohol’s risk. If a tax gets them to cut back on their drinking, their risk exposure is reduced — so their lives are extended. “They’re experiencing those benefits disproportionately,” Wagenaar argued.</p> <h3 id="p2Sdjf" style="font-size:1.02em">The tax may hit low-income people more, but benefit them more too</h3> <p id="Fk78Eo">Another typical argument against a higher alcohol tax is that it disproportionately hurts low-income people. This is generally true with consumption taxes: If a person has to pay a dollar more for something, that dollar will mean more if that person makes $10 an hour instead of $40 an hour at work.</p> <p id="KqJ7kX">With alcohol, though, the story is a bit more complicated. People are more likely to drink as they get wealthier, based on <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/184358/drinking-highest-among-educated-upper-income-americans.aspx" target="_blank">surveys</a>. This makes sense: As people get more expendable income, they’re more likely to buy luxury items like alcohol. So a higher alcohol tax does not have as much of a disproportionate impact as one might assume.</p> <p id="B4ieFN">To this end, a CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2016/15_0450.htm" target="_blank">study</a> in 2016 found that higher-income people would pay more in absolute dollar terms for a higher alcohol tax: “[A]fter a tax increase of $0.25 per drink, people earning less than $25,000 would pay an average additional cost of $11.64 per year, while those earning $75,000 or more would pay an additional $16.98 per year.” </p> <p id="zdCrFT">That’s still a disproportionate impact, relative to income, for the lower-income people. But it’s also not a big impact to overall income for the average person — amounting to less than 0.1 percent of total income, on average, even for a person making less than $25,000 a year.</p> <p id="RAPOBD">Lower-income people may be more affected by any kind of consumption tax, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a higher alcohol tax is a net negative for them, because a higher alcohol tax could also produce disproportionate benefits for them too. </p> <p id="sBcCBa">After all, if low-income communities are disproportionately affected by an alcohol tax, then that also means they’re more likely to see the positive effects of an alcohol tax, from better health to lower crime to fewer car crashes. Keith Humphreys, a drug policy expert at Stanford University, argued that those benefits need to be “priced in” with disproportionate costs.</p> <p id="m15omE">Plus, revenue raised from a higher alcohol tax could go to programs that help low-income people. The Congressional Budget Office <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52284" target="_blank">estimated</a> in 2016 that a fairly modest alcohol tax proposal would raise about $70 billion over 10 years. That’s money that could go to a higher earned income tax credit, a <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/12/10/18130870/child-tax-credit-2020-election" target="_blank">larger child allowance</a>, food and housing assistance, education, or <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/2/16181734/12-steps-aa-na-studies" target="_blank">addiction treatment</a>.</p> <p id="DdRsID">Ideally, the alcohol tax wouldn’t bring in that much more revenue. That would imply that people are still drinking too much. But unlike, say, a tobacco tax and smoking, the goal is not to get drinking to zero. So there would always be <em>some</em> more revenue from a tax increase, and that money could be used for programs that would help low-income people more than a higher alcohol tax would cost them.</p> <h3 id="qDKqYS" style="font-size:1.02em">Politics stand in the way</h3> <p id="nn12OG">Despite the research, there’s long been one barrier in front of higher alcohol taxes: politics. </p> <p id="NXlODf">That’s largely because a lot of people drink. According to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/238100/americans-favor-beer-alcoholic-beverages.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup’s surveys</a>, 63 percent of adults in the US admit to drinking. That’s a sizable chunk of the population that could be angered by an increase in the price of alcohol.</p> <p id="lNxLY8">“You might reasonably conclude that this is a really promising policy,” Roodman, of the Open Philanthropy Project, told me. “But since tax increases are so unpopular in this country, you might want to put a big discount on any effort to change the policy.”</p> <p id="0YCntC">The other big factor is the alcohol industry, which includes not just Anheuser-Busch and other producers, but also bars, restaurants, and stores that sell booze. This is a massive, multibillion-dollar industry that can lobby lawmakers to keep taxes low or even cut them.</p> <p id="rNdBeR">The industry has consistently stood in the way of a higher alcohol tax, warning that it could lead to fewer jobs. (<a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141118072524.htm" target="_blank">Some</a> <a href="http://www.camy.org/_docs/research-to-practice/tax-report-2009.pdf" target="_blank">experts</a> disagree, arguing that the new tax revenue and spending shift from alcohol to non-alcohol products could lead to, on net, more jobs.) Indeed, senators <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/lawmakers-push-alcohol-tax-cut" target="_blank">reportedly worked closely with the industry</a> to craft Congress’s alcohol tax cut last year.</p> <p id="h3J8u1">Ironically, the industry’s opposition is telling in another way: It suggests that the industry thinks a higher tax would, in fact, work. The industry’s big concern is that the alcohol tax would drive fewer people to drink, which would, in turn, reduce drinking-related problems.</p> <p id="tPpjfQ">Another common talking point against an alcohol tax is that it could stop some positive drinking, since some (<a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/4/24/17242720/alcohol-health-risks-facts" target="_blank">questionable</a>) studies suggest that alcohol can have health benefits. But <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/4/24/17242720/alcohol-health-risks-facts" target="_blank">newer research</a> has indicated that the bad likely outweighs the good. A major <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(18)31571-X/fulltext" target="_blank">review of the evidence</a> published this year in <em>Lancet</em>, for example, was titled, “No level of alcohol consumption improves health.”</p> <p id="NywA8E">Finally, there’s the specter of Prohibition, the US’s ban on alcohol from 1920 to 1933. The policy is widely perceived as a catastrophic failure, hence its repeal in the 1930s. There are <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2005.065409" target="_blank">some scholarly debates</a> over how well the policy actually worked, but the reality is that anything that even approaches Prohibition in intent or effect is often seen as dangerous and ignorant of history. </p> <p id="Oy1CIK">“That feeds into some of our discussions about restrictions around alcohol,” Toomey, the University of Minnesota epidemiologist, told me.</p> <p id="3hs9uK">One potential bright spot for supporters of an alcohol tax is that, while all of these hurdles do make a higher alcohol tax really tough in Congress, local and state governments could act as well. With less money and lobbying going to individual cities, counties, and states, these lower levels of government could be more receptive to a concerted advocacy effort than federal lawmakers. The end result wouldn’t be as good as a higher federal tax, but it’d be something.</p> <p id="rPTRxi">Ultimately, this is about reaching a balancing point for alcohol policy. The country doesn’t want to return to Prohibition. But alcohol still poses public health and safety problems. And there are many steps that the US could take before getting back to Prohibition — not just an alcohol tax, but a <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/12/26/16738722/alcohol-minimum-price" target="_blank">minimum price</a>, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19944925" target="_blank">regulations on alcohol outlets</a>, and <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/2/9/10955138/alcohol-247-sobriety-program" target="_blank">programs that restrict problem drinkers’ ability to drink</a>.</p> <p id="p07cOq">“We can have alcohol, and use alcohol in moderation,” Toomey said. “But we need to control it to some degree.”</p> <hr class="p-entry-hr" id="PByRzg"> <p id="chBzQg"><em>Do you ever struggle to figure out where to donate that will make the biggest impact? Or which kind of charities to support? Over five days, in five emails, we’ll walk you through research and frameworks that will </em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/d/FABC286BC1A71B68" target="_blank"><em>help you decide how much and where to give</em></a><em>, and other ways to do good. </em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/d/FABC286BC1A71B68" target="_blank"><em>Sign up for Future Perfect’s new pop-up newsletter.</em></a></p> <hr class="p-entry-hr" id="oYGLP4"> <p id="o3XJy7"><strong>Correction:</strong> This article originally misstated the percent of Americans who drink.</p> <div> <hr class="p-entry-hr"> <p><strong><a href="http://vox.com/pages/support-now?itm_campaign=default&itm_medium=article&itm_source=article-footer" target="_blank">Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?</a></strong></p> <p> Millions turn to Vox to understand what’s happening in the news. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower through understanding. 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<div> <!-- site messages --> <div id="pmc-labs-ad" role="region" aria-label="Alert"><div><div><p>Try out <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/" target="_blank">PMC Labs</a> and tell us what you think. <a href="https://ncbiinsights.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2021/06/02/pmc-labs/" target="_blank" target="_blank">Learn More</a>.</p></div></div></div> <div> <div id="maincontent"> <div> <ul class="page-breadcrumbs inline_list small"><li class="journal-list"><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/" target="_blank">Journal List</a></li><li class="archive"><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/369/" target="_blank">Sleep</a></li><li class="issue-page"><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/issues/168262/" target="_blank">v.31(6); 2008 Jun 1</a></li><li class="accid">PMC2442418</li></ul> </div> <!-- Journal banner --> <div> </div> <!--component id='MainPortlet' label='search-reference'/--> <!-- Book content --> <div> <div id="mc"><!--main-content--><div data-jigconfig="smoothScroll: false, allHeadingLevels: ['h2'], headingExclude: ':hidden,.nomenu'"><div><div><div><div><div><span id="pmcmata">Sleep.</span> 2008 Jun 1; 31(6): 901–908. </div><div> <span class="doi"><span>doi: </span><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov//dx.doi.org/10.1093/sleep/31.6.901" target="_blank" ref="reftype=other&article-id=2442418&issue-id=168262&journal-id=369&FROM=Article|Front Matter&TO=Content Provider|Crosslink|DOI" target="_blank">10.1093/sleep/31.6.901</a></span></div></div></div><div><div><span class="fm-citation-ids-label">PMCID: </span><span>PMC2442418</span></div><div>PMID: <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18548836" target="_blank">18548836</a></div></div></div><h1 style="font-size:1.2em">Sleep Disturbance in Heavy Marijuana Users</h1><div><div><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Bolla KI[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931714299200" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Karen I. Bolla</a>, PhD,<sup>1,</sup><sup>2,</sup><sup>3</sup><sup></sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Lesage SR[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931768444112" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Suzanne R. Lesage</a>, MD,<sup>4</sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Gamaldo CE[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931726705632" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Charlene E. Gamaldo</a>, MD,<sup>1</sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Neubauer DN[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931712148912" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">David N. Neubauer</a>, MD,<sup>2</sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Funderburk FR[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931713050672" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Frank R. Funderburk</a>, MA,<sup>5</sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Cadet JL[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931715552144" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Jean Lud Cadet</a>, MD,<sup>6</sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=David PM[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931713445024" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Paula M. David</a>,<sup>1</sup> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Verdejo-Garcia A[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931712313488" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Antonio Verdejo-Garcia</a>, PhD,<sup>7</sup> and <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Benbrook AR[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" co-rid="_co_idm139931716062592" co-class="co-affbox" target="_blank">Amy R. Benbrook</a>, MS<sup>1</sup></div><div><div id="_co_idm139931714299200"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Karen I. Bolla</h3><p><sup>1</sup>Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</p><p><sup>2</sup>Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</p><p><sup>3</sup>Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Bolla KI[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Karen I. Bolla</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931768444112"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Suzanne R. Lesage</h3><p><sup>4</sup>University of Maryland Sleep Disorders Center Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Lesage SR[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Suzanne R. Lesage</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931726705632"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Charlene E. Gamaldo</h3><p><sup>1</sup>Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Gamaldo CE[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Charlene E. Gamaldo</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931712148912"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">David N. Neubauer</h3><p><sup>2</sup>Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Neubauer DN[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">David N. Neubauer</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931713050672"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Frank R. Funderburk</h3><p><sup>5</sup>InCompass Systems, Columbia, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Funderburk FR[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Frank R. Funderburk</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931715552144"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Jean Lud Cadet</h3><p><sup>6</sup>Molecular Neuropsychiatry Branch, DHHS, NIH/NIDA Intramural Research Program, Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Cadet JL[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Jean Lud Cadet</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931713445024"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Paula M. David</h3><p><sup>1</sup>Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=David PM[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Paula M. David</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931712313488"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Antonio Verdejo-Garcia</h3><p><sup>7</sup>Pharmacology Research Unit, Institut Municipal d′Investigaciáo Mèdica Barcelona, Spain</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Verdejo-Garcia A[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Antonio Verdejo-Garcia</a></div></div><div id="_co_idm139931716062592"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Amy R. Benbrook</h3><p><sup>1</sup>Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</p><div>Find articles by <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Benbrook AR[Author]&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=18548836" target="_blank">Amy R. Benbrook</a></div></div></div></div><div><div><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#" rid="idm139931713766624_ai" target="_blank">Author information</a> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#" rid="idm139931713766624_an" target="_blank">Article notes</a> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#" rid="idm139931713766624_cpl" target="_blank">Copyright and License information</a> <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/about/disclaimer/" style="margin-left: 1em" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></div><div id="idm139931713766624_ai"><div lang="en" id="aff1"><sup>1</sup>Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</div><div lang="en" id="aff2"><sup>2</sup>Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Bayview Medical Center, Baltimore, MD</div><div lang="en" id="aff3"><sup>3</sup>Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</div><div lang="en" id="aff4"><sup>4</sup>University of Maryland Sleep Disorders Center Baltimore, MD</div><div lang="en" id="aff5"><sup>5</sup>InCompass Systems, Columbia, MD</div><div lang="en" id="aff6"><sup>6</sup>Molecular Neuropsychiatry Branch, DHHS, NIH/NIDA Intramural Research Program, Baltimore, MD</div><div lang="en" id="aff7"><sup>7</sup>Pharmacology Research Unit, Institut Municipal d′Investigaciáo Mèdica Barcelona, Spain</div><div id="cor1">Address correspondence to: Karen I. Bolla, Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center, 4940 Eastern Avenue, B building, Room 123, Baltimore, Maryland, 21224., Phone: 410-550-1123, Fax: 410-550-3837, <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.govmailto:dev@null" data-email="ude.imhj@allobk" target="_blank">ude.imhj@allobk</a></div></div><div id="idm139931713766624_an"><div>Received 2007 Aug; Accepted 2008 Feb.</div></div><div id="idm139931713766624_cpl"><div><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/about/copyright/" target="_blank">Copyright</a> © 2008 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.</div></div></div><div id="pmclinksbox" role="complementary" aria-label="Related or updated information about this article."><div>This article has been <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/citedby/" target="_blank">cited by</a> other articles in PMC.</div></div></div><div id="idm139931712897264" lang="en"><h2 id="idm139931712897264title" style="font-size:1.05em">Abstract</h2><!--article-meta--><div><div id="__sec1"><h3 id="__sec1title" style="font-size:1.02em">Study Objective:</h3><p id="__p1" class="p p-first-last">To determine if recently abstinent, heavy marijuana (MJ) users show differences in polysomnographic (PSG) measures compared with a drug-free control group.</p></div><div id="__sec2"><h3 id="__sec2title" style="font-size:1.02em">Design:</h3><p id="__p2" class="p p-first-last">A group of carefully selected heavy MJ users were chosen for study inclusion and matched to a drug-free control group. Questionnaire data were collected prior to cessation of MJ use. PSG studies were conducted during 2 consecutive nights after discontinuation of MJ use in our core sleep laboratory.</p></div><div id="__sec3"><h3 id="__sec3title" style="font-size:1.02em">Setting:</h3><p id="__p3" class="p p-first-last">Baltimore Maryland, General Clinical Research Center (GCRC) core sleep lab.</p></div><div id="__sec4"><h3 id="__sec4title" style="font-size:1.02em">Participants:</h3><p id="__p4" class="p p-first-last">17 heavy MJ users discontinuing MJ use and 14 drug-free controls. Men and women were studied, 18 to 30 years. The MJ users reported no other drug use and alcohol use was negligible in both groups. Urine was positive for metabolites of cannabis only.</p></div><div id="__sec5"><h3 id="__sec5title" style="font-size:1.02em">Measurements and Results:</h3><p id="__p5" class="p p-first-last">The MJ users showed differences in PSG measures (lower total sleep times, and less slow wave sleep than the control group) on both nights; they also showed worse sleep efficiency, longer sleep onset, and shorter REM latency than the control group on Night 2. More sleep continuity parameters were significantly worse for the MJ group than the control group on Night 2 versus Night 1, indicating that sleep in the MJ group was relatively worse on Night 2 compared to Night 1. The MJ group did not show improved sleep after an adaptation night as expected. Withdrawal symptoms, craving, and depression did not appear to influence these findings.</p></div><div id="__sec6"><h3 id="__sec6title" style="font-size:1.02em">Conclusions:</h3><p id="__p6" class="p p-first-last">During discontinuation of heavy MJ use, PSG measures of sleep disturbance were detected in MJ users compared with a drug-free control group. While this preliminary study cannot identify the extent to which these group differences were present before abstinence, poor sleep quality either prior to or after MJ discontinuation could result in treatment failure for MJ users. Further investigation is necessary to determine the association between the use and cessation of MJ and sleep disturbance.</p></div><div id="__sec7"><h3 id="__sec7title" style="font-size:1.02em">Citation:</h3><p id="__p7" class="p p-first-last">Bolla KI; Lesage SR; Gamaldo CR; Neubauer DN; Funderburk FR; Cadet JL; David PM; Verdejo-Garcia A; Benbrook AR. Sleep disturbance in heavy marijuana users. <em>SLEEP</em> 2008;31(6):901-908.</p></div></div><div><strong class="kwd-title">Keywords: </strong><span class="kwd-text">Marijuana, sleep, polysomnography, withdrawal</span></div></div><div id="idm139931730351824"><h2 style="font-size:1.05em"></h2><p id="__p8" class="p p-first">PEOPLE WITH SUBSTANCE-RELATED DISORDERS OFTEN EXPERIENCE SLEEP PROBLEMS THAT PERSIST FOR MONTHS AFTER CESSATION OF DRUG USE.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B1" rid="B1" id="__tag_152447150" target="_blank">1</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B2" rid="B2" id="__tag_152447142" target="_blank">2</a></sup> These sleep disturbances could precipitate relapse in recently abstinent substance users as they attempt to improve their sleep quality. Eleven million Americans use marijuana (MJ) either alone, or in conjunction with other illicit drugs, and this number is increasing. Increases in the numbers of MJ users, coupled with increases in potency over recent years have resulted in a higher prevalence of MJ use disorders.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B3" rid="B3" id="__tag_152447141" target="_blank">3</a></sup> Except for alcohol, MJ use accounted for the largest percent of drug abuse treatment admissions (15.9%) in 2004. A major problem in the treatment of MJ users is that up to 76% of those who abruptly stop using MJ report disturbed sleep (strange dreams, insomnia, poor sleep quality), possibly increasing the risk of relapse.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B4" rid="B4" id="__tag_152447134" target="_blank">4</a></sup></p><p id="__p9">Aside from self-reports of sleep disturbance by recently abstinent MJ users, there are only a handful of studies that have recorded polysomnography (PSG) in MJ users in the past 20 years.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B5" rid="B5" id="__tag_152447126" target="_blank">5</a>–<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B8" rid="B8" id="__tag_152447159" target="_blank">8</a></sup> After oral administration of a high dose of MJ extract, REM sleep decreased and slow wave sleep (SWS) increased.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B5" rid="B5" id="__tag_152447154" target="_blank">5</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B6" rid="B6" id="__tag_152447161" target="_blank">6</a></sup> Following one day of no MJ use, REM sleep increased and SWS decreased. In another study, 3 MJ-dependent men (mean age 40 yr) were studied during 3 days of abstinence.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B7" rid="B7" target="_blank">7</a></sup> Over the 3 days, sleep efficiency (total sleep time [TST]/time in bed [TIB] and initial REM latency decreased, while percent REM of TST, SWS (% TST), ratings of MJ craving, and irritability increased. These 2 studies showed contradictory results with respect to SWS, which could be related to differences in the demographic characteristics of the MJ users (e.g., amount of MJ use) or the timing of the PSG in relationship to the number of days of abstinence. Although the numbers of studies are few, these results show robust sleep abnormalities after MJ discontinuation and underscore the need to further investigate sleep disturbance in recently abstinent MJ users. Sleep disturbance in MJ users has important basic science and clinical implications. Furthering our understanding of how sleep is affected in MJ users could provide insights not only into the process of addiction but also into the functioning of the endogenous cannabinoid system, since this system plays a role in sleep promotion.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B9" rid="B9" id="__tag_152447125" target="_blank">9</a></sup> In addition, a better understanding of sleep disturbance in recently abstinent MJ users has potential implications for understanding relapse and guiding treatment interventions.</p><p id="__p10" class="p">The aim of this study was to determine if MJ users self-reporting sleep disturbance when discontinuing MJ use in the past show objective PSG findings that are different from a drug-free control group. Based on previous subjective reports of sleep disturbance and limited objective PSG findings, we hypothesized that abstinent MJ users would show longer time to sleep onset and more difficulty with sleep maintenance than a drug-free control group. Since we have repeatedly found dose-related associations between the amount and duration of MJ drug use and measures of brain function,<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B10" rid="B10" id="__tag_152447124" target="_blank">10</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B11" rid="B11" id="__tag_152447120" target="_blank">11</a></sup> we explored also whether there was an association between the amount and duration of MJ use and the severity of sleep disturbance.</p></div><div id="__sec8"><h2 id="__sec8title" style="font-size:1.05em">METHODS</h2><div id="__sec9"><h3 id="__sec9title" style="font-size:1.02em">Participants</h3><p id="__p11" class="p p-first-last">We recruited participants through newspaper advertisements. To control for any medical, neurological or psychiatric conditions, participants received full medical and psychiatric screening. Screening consisted of drug use and psychological history using the Drug Use Survey Questionnaire (DUSQ),<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B12" rid="B12" target="_blank">12</a></sup> Addiction Severity Index (ASI),<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B13" rid="B13" id="__tag_152447128" target="_blank">13</a></sup> and the Psychiatric Diagnostic Interview Schedule (DIS-IV)<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B14" rid="B14" id="__tag_152447132" target="_blank">14</a></sup> corresponding to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Version IV (DSM-IV). Medical screening consisted of complete physical and neurological examinations, including urine toxicology. All participants spoke English as their native language, and all had estimated IQs >85 as assessed by the Shipley Institute of Living Scale.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B15" rid="B15" target="_blank">15</a></sup> The age range for inclusion was greater than 18 years and younger than 30 years. From the DIS-IV it was determined that none of the participants had comorbid Axis I psychiatric disorders or antisocial personality disorder. The Institutional Review Boards of the National Institute on Drug Abuse-Intramural Research Program (NIDA-IRP), the Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Joint Committee on Clinical Investigation, and the Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Institutional Review Board approved this study. All participants provided informed consent and received remuneration.</p></div><div id="__sec10"><h3 id="__sec10title" style="font-size:1.02em">Marijuana (MJ) Group</h3><p id="__p12" class="p p-first-last">This group was comprised of chronic MJ users who claimed MJ as their drug of choice. Inclusion criteria for MJ participants were: reported use of MJ for ≥2 years and smoked MJ '5 times per week over the past 3 months; reported alcohol consumption ≤15 drinks per week; and urine toxicology screen positive for cannabis metabolites and negative for amphetamine, barbiturate, cocaine, methadone, opiate, PCP, and benzodiazepine at the time of screening and admission to the study. Participants reported no regular use of any other illicit drugs. Since our study aim was to determine if we could detect objective PSG findings of subjective reports of sleep disturbance with cessation of MJ use, we purposely biased our selection of MJ users towards individuals who reported disrupted sleep during prior periods of attempted abstinence. Therefore, for inclusion, MJ users also had to report ≥2 withdrawal symptoms on a MJ withdrawal questionnaire with ≥1 being a sleep disturbance symptom upon discontinuation of MJ use in the past. Twenty-nine percent (5/17) of the MJ participants met the DSM-IV diagnosis for cannabis dependence; one MJ user met the diagnosis for cannabis abuse only; and 65% (11/17) of MJ users did not meet the diagnosis for cannabis dependence or abuse. The most common reason that diagnostic criteria were not met was because the MJ users did not report substance-related legal problems or social or interpersonal problems related to drug use. We excluded participants if they met DSM-IV criteria for current or past dependence on any other psychoactive substance, including alcohol. Individuals were not excluded for nicotine dependence, although no participant met criteria for this diagnosis.</p></div><div id="__sec11"><h3 id="__sec11title" style="font-size:1.02em">Control Group</h3><p id="__p13" class="p p-first-last">Control participants qualified if they did not meet DSM-IV criteria for past or current dependence or abuse of any substance except nicotine and tobacco. Reported alcohol consumption was ≤15 drinks per week. A urine toxicology screen prior to testing revealed no use of any illicit drug for all participants in the control group. No participant in the control group reported using MJ in the past 3 months, and lifetime use of MJ was negligible.</p></div><div id="__sec12"><h3 id="__sec12title" style="font-size:1.02em">Exclusion Criteria</h3><p id="__p14" class="p p-first-last">A screening sleep history questionnaire and a personal sleep history interview were conducted by a sleep medicine physician to look for underlying sleep disorders which would exclude a participant from the study. No participant endorsed symptoms of narcolepsy, restless legs syndrome, or periodic leg movements. Participants were excluded if they had medical conditions that may affect sleep architecture, a prior history of sleep disorder, or any neuropsychiatric condition including the following: seizure disorder, dementia, CNS infection, demyelinating disease, space-occupying lesion, movement disorder, CNS vasculitis, autoimmune disease (HIV), head injury with loss of consciousness >5 min, or congenital CNS abnormality. We excluded volunteers if they had a history of hypertension, diabetes, or current use of medications that may affect sleep function (anxiolytics, antidepressants, stimulants, antihistamines, antipsychotics). Since obese individuals are more prone to obstructive sleep apnea, body mass index (BMI) was limited to less than 32 for men and 35 for women. Finally, we excluded those participants who met clinical criteria for sleep apnea (>10 disordered breathing events/h) on the PSG on either Night 1 or Night 2 from the final sample. Subjects with AHI >10/h were excluded to eliminate cases with potentially clinically significant sleep disruption due to sleep disordered breathing. An apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was selected based on the current literature evaluating presence of SDB in relation to established comorbid risk factors such as stroke, heart disease, congestive heart failure, and arrhythmias. The minimum AHI threshold used in these studies to define SDB was >10/h.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B16" rid="B16" id="__tag_152447152" target="_blank">16</a></sup></p></div><div id="__sec13"><h3 id="__sec13title" style="font-size:1.02em">Data Collection</h3><p id="__p15" class="p p-first">Prior to the admission date, the study coordinator met with participants and obtained informed consent; she gave the participants sleep diaries and instructed them on their use during the 5 mornings prior to admission. During this initial visit the participants completed the Horne-Ostberg morningness-eveningness scale<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B17" rid="B17" id="__tag_152447121" target="_blank">17</a></sup> to define individual chronotypes (sleep-wake circadian rhythm pattern) to ensure that the groups did not differ substantially on their sleep-wake trait characteristics and sleep habits. The participants also completed a detailed sleep history questionnaire (SHQ) that was developed at the Johns Hopkins Sleep Center. Section 1 of the SHQ is composed of 6 questions that ask the participants to rate their sleep quality and degree of satisfaction with their sleep/alertness from “very good” to “very poor” (Sleep Satisfaction Score). We assigned values of zero for “very good” to 7 for “very poor.” The next 84 questions (Section 2, Symptoms Related to Disturbed Sleep) characterize the sleep disturbance experienced by the individual during the past few months. Specifically it asks: “how often do you find that you ….doze or nod off at work,” “have restless sleep,” or “use marijuana to help you sleep.” The 5 response choices range from “never” to “almost always.” We assigned a numerical score to each response with “never” receiving a score of zero and “almost always” receiving a score of 5. We summed the items for each section. The higher the score, the lower the sleep satisfaction (Section 1) and the more frequent the symptoms related to disturbed sleep (Section 2). These measures were collected prior to MJ discontinuation and admission into a controlled environment. We instructed the MJ participants not to deviate from their normal sleep-wake and MJ smoking routines (all smoked MJ daily) until the time of their admission. When questioned about their last MJ use upon admission, 7 MJ users smoked the morning of admission, 7 smoked the day before, and 3 smoked within 48 h of admission.</p><p id="__p16" class="p p-last">On the day of admission into the GCRC, a sleep medicine physician interviewed each participant to screen for any past history or baseline sleep problems and performed a physical. After admission, the MJ participants resided in the Clinical Inpatient Research Unit (CIRU) at NIDA-IRP where abstinence was enforced during 14 days. Control participants resided in the GCRC sleep laboratory for 3 days. During this time, standard PSG recordings were performed on Nights 1, 2, 7, 8, and 13 for MJ users, and Nights 1 and 2 for control participants. Time for lights out was determined by taking the median time from the previous 5 nights of sleep after review of the sleep logs with the participants. Subjects were then given the opportunity to sleep 8 h from the time of lights out. This method was used to avoid putting subjects to bed at a time uncharacteristic of their normal sleep habits (because the study was designed to test sleep problems that were different from an individual's norms instead of societal normative standards). After admission to the CIRU, all participants having sleep studies did not receive any food or beverage containing caffeine. In addition, cigarette smoking was allowed only before 19:00, and only when escorted by a staff member to an outside designated smoking area. Only 2 nights of PSG recordings are presented in this report because the control group only had PSG studies on Nights 1 and 2, and thus group differences could only be determined directly during the first 2 nights. PSG changes over the 14 days of MJ abstinence will be reported in a separate publication.</p></div><div id="__sec14"><h3 id="__sec14title" style="font-size:1.02em">Standard Polysomnography (PSG)</h3><p id="__p17" class="p p-first-last">We obtained clinical PSG recordings on all participants for 2 consecutive nights following standard methodology. The bedtimes (lights out) were based on averages on the prior 5-night sleep diaries. Sleep was scored blinded to group membership in 30-sec epochs using Rechtschaffen and Kales standard criteria,<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B18" rid="B18" id="__tag_397101584" target="_blank">18</a></sup> and periodic limb movements in sleep and arousals were scored using the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) task force criteria.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B19" rid="B19" id="__tag_152447158" target="_blank">19</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B20" rid="B20" id="__tag_152447162" target="_blank">20</a></sup> A sleep specialist certified by the American Board of Sleep Medicine monitored all scoring on an epoch-by-epoch basis. Sleep measures included: total sleep time (TST), sleep efficiency (SE [total sleep time/time in bed x 100]), initial sleep latency (ISL [minutes from lights out to first 30 sec of any sleep stage]), wake after sleep onset (WASO [number of minutes awake during the night after initial sleep onset]), percent total time spent in REM, stage 1, stage 2, stage 3 and 4 (slow wave sleep [SWS]), periodic leg movements with arousals (PLMA) and without arousals (PLM), and PLM and PLMA indices (average number of PLM per hour of sleep without and with arousals, respectively), and disordered breathing rate (DB = apnea hypopnea/h). We analyzed the PSG variables for Night 1 and Night 2 separately. Clinical sleep research protocols often exclude either the first night recording or average PSG findings from Nights 1 and 2 to adjust for the “first night effect” which is an adaptation night in the sleep lab. However, since we hypothesized that sleep would become more disrupted as the length of MJ abstinence increased, we considered each night separately.</p></div><div id="__sec15"><h3 id="__sec15title" style="font-size:1.02em">Subjective Ratings of MJ Withdrawal Craving, Mood, and Sleep Satisfaction</h3><p id="__p18" class="p p-first-last">Withdrawal symptoms and MJ craving were measured daily after admission to the GCRC with a MJ withdrawal symptom questionnaire<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B1" rid="B1" id="__tag_152447117" target="_blank">1</a></sup> and a MJ craving questionnaire.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B21" rid="B21" id="__tag_152447123" target="_blank">21</a></sup> Sleep quality was assessed with daily sleep logs. Psychological symptoms including mood and irritability were assessed daily with the Profile of Mood States (POMS).</p></div><div id="__sec16"><h3 id="__sec16title" style="font-size:1.02em">Quantitative Levels of MJ (THC-COOH)</h3><p id="__p19" class="p p-first-last">Urine collected on the day of admission and every third day was analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy (GC/MS) for THC and 11-OH-THC, and by FPIA-fluorescence polarization immunoassay for THC-COOH. Values were corrected for urinary creatinine.</p></div><div id="__sec17"><h3 id="__sec17title" style="font-size:1.02em">Statistical Analysis</h3><p id="__p20" class="p p-first-last">We first conducted exploratory and normality analysis (Kolgomorov-Smirnoff) for each group separately to examine the distributional properties of the sample. When the distribution met normality assumptions, between-group comparisons (MJ users vs drug-free controls) were analyzed using independent-sample <em>t</em>-tests, and within-group comparisons were analyzed using paired <em>t</em>-tests. In the drug-free control group, the distributions of initial sleep latency, PLM index, PLMA index, and WASO were not distributed normally. Instead of transforming the nonnormally distributed data into a metric that is difficult to interpret, we chose to use nonparametric tests (Mann-Whitney). Chi-square was used to test for differences in proportion of subjects in each group with PLM and PLMA. Effect sizes (size of the between-group differences) were estimated using Cohen's <em>d.</em><sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B22" rid="B22" target="_blank">22</a></sup> To examine if there was an association between MJ use (joints/week and duration) and sleep indices, we used correlation and regression analyses.</p></div></div><div id="__sec18"><h2 id="__sec18title" style="font-size:1.05em">RESULTS</h2><div id="__sec19"><h3 id="__sec19title" style="font-size:1.02em">Demographics</h3><p id="__p21" class="p p-first">We excluded 2 MJ users and 4 controls from the final sample because their PSG studies indicated sleep apnea (AHI >10) on the PSG on either Night 1 or Night 2. Thus, the final sample was comprised of 17 MJ users and 14 drug-free controls. <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T1/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T1" rid-ob="ob-T1" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 1</span></a> presents the demographic, sleep patterns, and drug use characteristics of the groups. All the control participants and all but one MJ user were right-handed. Groups did not differ on gender, age, and mother's years of education. However, controls had higher years of education and higher estimated Shipley IQ scores (see <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T1/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T1" rid-ob="ob-T1" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 1</span></a>).</p><!--table ft1--><!--table-wrap mode="anchored" t5--><div id="T1"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Table 1</h3><!--caption a7--><div><p id="__p22">Demographic, Sleep, and Drug Use Characteristics of the Control Group and Marijuana (MJ) Users</p></div><div><table frame="box" rules="groups"><thead valign="bottom"><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Demographics</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Control Group (n = 14)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">MJ Users (n = 17)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><em>t/χ<sup>2</sup></em></th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">P</th></tr></thead><tbody valign="top"><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Age</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">21.7 (3.1) [19–30]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">20.6 (2.3) [18–25]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.16</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Education</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">14.4 (1.3) [14–16]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">11.5 (0.9) [9–13]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7.19</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.01</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Mother Education</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">13.4 (4.4) [12–18]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">12.3 (3.6) [10–16]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.75</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Shipley IQ</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">109.5 (6.9) [100–118]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">94.9 (8.5) [85–109]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5.17</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.01</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Gender (M/F)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7/7</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">13/4</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.35</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sleep History Questionnaire Prior to MJ Discontinuance</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Usual length of time in bed (h)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7.1 (0.59)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7.6 (0.57)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.69</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Usual hours of actual sleep</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">6.5 (0.55)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">6.5 (0.51)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.02</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Sleep Satisfaction Score<sup> </sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">31 (2.6)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">29 (1.3)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.82</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Symptoms Related to Disturbed Sleep<sup> </sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">61 (8.5)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">76 (8.2)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−1.27</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sleep Patterns</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Horne-Ostberg Index (% of group)<sup>F</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Morningness 0</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Morningness 18</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.331<sup>F</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Neither 78</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Neither 58</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Eveningness 22</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Eveningness 24</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Enter Bed (pre/post)<sup>S</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">01:32/00:40</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">23:52/00:45</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Wake Up (pre/post)<sup>S</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">08:00/08:12</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">08:15/07:45</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Out of Bed (pre/post)<sup>S</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">08:43/08:20</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">09:20/08:10</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Drug Use Variables</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    MJ use (joints/wk)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">-</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">104 (51) [63–210]</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    MJ use duration (yr)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">-</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5 (3) [2–12]</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Days/week MJ smoked</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Alcohol average (drinks/wk)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2 (2) [0–8]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3 (4) [0–10]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.82</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Alcohol duration (yr)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2 (2) [0–6]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2 (2) [0–7]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.04</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Cigarettes (currently smoke cigarettes daily)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1/14</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3/17</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Average cigarette use (# cigarettes/day)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">[0–1]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">[0–2]</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">    Cigarettes Duration (yr)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1 (2) [0–4]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3 (2) [0–6]</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−1.32</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ns</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div id="largeobj_idm139931810614096"><a target="object" href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T1/?report=objectonly" target="_blank">Open in a separate window</a></div><div><div id="idm139931768074560"><p id="__p23" class="p p-first-last">Note: Numbers are means (SD) [Ranges]; <sup> </sup>asked to evaluate sleep during the past few months; the higher the score, the worse the sleep quality; <sup>S</sup>Times taken from sleep logs (median values); Pre/post = admission for the control group; and MJ discontinuation for the MJ users; <sup>F</sup>Fisher exact test P = 0.331.</p></div></div></div></div><div id="__sec20"><h3 id="__sec20title" style="font-size:1.02em">Sleep Quality and Patterns</h3><p id="__p24" class="p p-first">Based on sleep logs and the SHQ, sleep-wake patterns prior to the PSG studies did not differ greatly between the groups. The composition of the groups did not appear to be significantly different on their individual sleep pattern characteristics (i.e., time to enter bed, time to awaken, total sleep time, pre-admission and post-admission), and their morning-evening tendencies (Horne-Ostberg scale) were similar (<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T1/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T1" rid-ob="ob-T1" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 1</span></a>). However, the MJ users tended to stay in bed longer after awakening than the control group both pre- and post-admission/MJ discontinuation. Additionally, no mean group differences were observed for AHI for Night 1 (drug-free controls 2.8 ± 2.5; MJ users 2.3 ± 2.2) or Night 2 (drug-free controls 3.7 ± 2.9; MJ users 3.5 ± 2.9).</p><p id="__p25">The SHQ was administered to assess sleep satisfaction and the frequency of symptoms related to disturbed sleep during the past few months. This questionnaire was completed prior to the inpatient admission and therefore, before MJ discontinuation. <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T1/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T1" rid-ob="ob-T1" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 1</span></a> shows no group differences for “usual” length of time in bed or hours of actual sleep. No group difference was found for SHQ—Sleep Satisfaction (the higher the score the worse the sleep satisfaction), or SHQ—severity of Symptoms Related to Disturbed Sleep. We specifically examined the item on the SHQ that asked: “How often do you find that you use marijuana to help you sleep.” Of the 17 MJ users, answers were: never, 2; rarely, 1; sometimes, 5; often, 2; usually, 1; and almost always, 6. There was no relationship between number of joints smoked per week or duration of MJ use and those reporting using MJ “almost always” to help them sleep. That is, those who almost always smoked to help them sleep were not the heaviest users of MJ. In addition, we compared the 6 MJ users who report “almost always” smoking MJ to help them sleep to the other MJ users on Nights 1 and 2 using <em>t</em>-tests on all the sleep variables and found no significant group differences for any of the variables. Thus, those who “almost always” smoked MJ to help them sleep were not more likely to experience the greatest disturbance of sleep during withdrawal in the GCRC.</p><p id="__p26" class="p p-last">Although a number of our MJ users reported that they used MJ to sleep, they did not report the frequent use of other agents to help induce sleep. Seventy-seven percent of the MJ group reported that they never used alcohol to sleep (17% reported “rarely,” 6% reported “sometimes”), 11% reported rare use of sleep pills, and no MJ users reported use of medicine not including sleeping pills to sleep. For the drug-free control group, one control reported “rarely” using sleeping pills to sleep and one control reported that they “sometimes” used other medication to help them sleep. None used alcohol to sleep.</p></div><div id="__sec21"><h3 id="__sec21title" style="font-size:1.02em">Drug Use Characteristics</h3><p id="__p27" class="p p-first-last">We estimated MJ use (joints per week and duration) using: (1) the ASI; (2) the DUSQ; (3) the participant's self-report of the amount of money spent each week on MJ (US $2.00/joint reported by the Drug Enforcement Agency reports for the Baltimore area) and (4) self-reports of the number of joints smoked per week. We have used this same methodology in our previous work.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B10" rid="B10" id="__tag_152447135" target="_blank">10</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B11" rid="B11" id="__tag_152447156" target="_blank">11</a></sup> MJ users reported smoking MJ daily (7 of 7 days), smoking a mean of 104 ± 51 joints per week (median value = 84 joints/wk), and having used MJ for a mean of 5 ± 3 years. Self-reported number of joints per week smoked was correlated with urinary THC-COOH levels on the day of admission (r = 0.75, P < 0.05). Mean MJ start age in this group was at 14 years of age (± 2 y). Both MJ and control participants reported minimal alcohol use. Furthermore, MJ and control groups did not differ in their self-reported tobacco use. Of note, our cigarette smokers were very light cigarette smokers. Only one control participant reported smoking cigarettes daily (1 cigarette per day), and only 3 MJ users reported smoking cigarettes daily (average use was 1 or 2 cigarettes per day). Our few smokers also reported low levels of addiction to nicotine on the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND).<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B23" rid="B23" id="__tag_152447122" target="_blank">23</a></sup> The FTND medians for the 2 cigarette-smoking drug-free controls was 3 (range 0–5) and for the 8 cigarette-smoking MJ users 4 (0–7).</p></div><div id="__sec22"><h3 id="__sec22title" style="font-size:1.02em">Statistical Analyses of Sleep Data</h3><p id="__p28" class="p p-first-last">Despite an attempt to match groups on all the demographic measures, our groups were different on IQ and education level (<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T1/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T1" rid-ob="ob-T1" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 1</span></a>). Having found that the groups differed in IQ and education, we felt that it was necessary to explore whether group differences in IQ and education could affect group differences in the sleep indices. Thus, we ran bivariate correlation analysis (Pearson) to examine the relation between these demographic variables and sleep related dependent variables. Since we found that IQ and education correlated with SWS and TST, we ran an ANCOVA to explore whether sleep related between-group differences were influenced when IQ and education were covaried. We did not correct the multiple <em>t</em>-tests for multiple comparisons because this pilot study is the first of its kind and we elected to use a less conservative approach.</p></div><div id="__sec23"><h3 id="__sec23title" style="font-size:1.02em">Night 1: MJ Users and Control Group Differences in Sleep Architecture</h3><p id="__p29" class="p p-first"><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T2/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T2" rid-ob="ob-T2" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 2</span></a> shows group mean differences for Night 1. MJ users had shorter TST time (<em>t</em><sub>30</sub> = 1.99, P = 0.05), less SWS min (<em>t</em><sub>30</sub> = 4.58, P < 0.001), and less SWS %TST (<em>t</em><sub>30</sub> = 3.99, P < 0.001) than controls. We report only the findings related to PLMs and exclude those related to PLMAs, since the results were similar for both measures. Although the number of leg movements was small, the MJ users had more PLMs (defined as any PLMs) than controls. Of interest, 53% of the MJ users had PLMs versus 14% of the control group. Group differences for SWS remained significant after including education as a covariate in an ANCOVA model (<em>F</em><sub>1,29</sub> = 4.95; P < 0.04). The effect sizes were moderate to large and ranged from 0.75 to 1.67.</p><!--table ft1--><!--table-wrap mode="anchored" t5--><div id="T2"><h3 style="font-size:1.02em">Table 2</h3><!--caption a7--><div><p id="__p30">Polysomnographic Measures for the Control Group and MJ Users on Sleep Nights 1 and 2</p></div><div><table frame="box" rules="groups"><thead valign="top"><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Variable</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Night 1 Control Group (n = 14)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Night 2 MJ Group (n = 17)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><em>t</em>/<em>U</em> (P level)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">d<sup>#</sup></th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Control Group (n = 14)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">MJ Group (n = 17)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><em>t</em>/<em>U</em> (P level)</th><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">d<sup>#</sup></th></tr></thead><tbody valign="top"><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Total sleep time (TST)(min)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">459 (42)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">420 (62)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.05*</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.75</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">461 (33)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">413 (79)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.04*<sup>A</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.75</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sleep efficiency (TST/TIB)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.94 (0.05)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.91 (0.08)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.17</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.42</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.94 (0.04)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.89 (0.06)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.01**</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.04</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><sup>U</sup> Initial sleep latency (ISL)(min)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7 (11)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">16 (28)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.40</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.41</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5 (5)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">22 (27)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.003**</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.77</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Initial REM latency (min)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">109 (49)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">77 (70)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.16</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.52</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">116 (65)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">77 (45)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.04*</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.71</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Slow wave sleep (SWS)/Stage 3/4 (min)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">74 (32)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">29 (22)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.001**</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.67</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">70 (27)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">27 (26)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.001**</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.63</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Slow wave sleep (SWS)/Stage 3/4 (%TST)<sup>B</sup></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">16 (7)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7 (6)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.001**</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.41</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">15 (6)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7 (7)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.001**</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.26</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Stage REM (min)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">99 (27)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">94 (40)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.70</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.14</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">97 (23)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">87 (30)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.30</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.61</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Stage REM (% TST)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">21 (5)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">23 (9)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.59</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.32</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">21 (5)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">21 (5)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.21</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><sup>U</sup>PLM index (median #/hr)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.5</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.6</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.07</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.4</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.4</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.52</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><sup>X</sup>Frequency of group with PLM (% with PLM)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2/14 (14%)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">9/17 (53%)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.12</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4/14 (29%)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7/17 (41%)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.71</td></tr><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><sup>U</sup>Wake after sleep onset (min)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">20 (19)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">24 (21)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.36</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.19</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">22 (18)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">23 (18)</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.63</td><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.05</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div id="largeobj_idm139931718298928"><a target="object" href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T2/?report=objectonly" target="_blank">Open in a separate window</a></div><div><div id="idm139931727759328"><p id="__p31" class="p p-first-last">Note. Numbers are means (standard deviations) TST = total sleep time: TIB (min): time in bed (min): PLM = periodic leg movements without and with (PLMA) arousals; <sup>U</sup> Mann-Whitney used for analyses. <sup>X</sup>Chi-square used for frequency data. <sup>A</sup>Group differences became nonsignificant after controlling for Shipley IQ score on Night 2. <sup>B</sup>Group differences remained significant after controlling for education on Night 1 and Night 2. d<sup>#</sup> = Cohen's <em>d</em> was used to estimate effect size. Reference Values from the JHB sleep clinic for 20–39 year olds: total sleep time 455 (33), initial sleep latency 16 (14), wake after sleep onset 12 (8), SWS (min) >58 min = within normal limits</p></div></div></div></div><div id="__sec24"><h3 id="__sec24title" style="font-size:1.02em">Night 2: MJ Users and Control Group Differences in Sleep Architecture</h3><p id="__p32" class="p p-first-last"><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/table/T2/" target="table" rid-figpopup="T2" rid-ob="ob-T2" co-legend-rid="" target="_blank"><span>Table 2</span></a> shows group differences for Night 2. The MJ group showed less TST (<em>t</em><sub>31</sub> = 2.09, P < 0.05), worse sleep efficiency (<em>t</em><sub>31</sub> = 2.57, P < 0.05), longer initial sleep latency (<em>U</em><sub>31</sub> = 47, P < 0.01), shorter initial REM latency (<em>t</em><sub>31</sub> = 1.98, P < 0.05), and less SWS min (<em>t</em><sub>31</sub> = 4.32, P < 0.001) and SWS %TST (<em>t</em><sub>31</sub> = 3.51, P < 0.001). Group differences for SWS remained significant after including education as a covariate in an ANCOVA model (<em>F</em><sub>1,29</sub> = 4.88; P < 0.04). The effect sizes were moderate to large and ranged from 0.71 to 1.63. Group differences became nonsignificant for TST after including Shipley as a covariate in an ANCOVA model (<em>F</em><sub>1,30</sub> = 2.76; P < 0.44).</p></div><div id="__sec25"><h3 id="__sec25title" style="font-size:1.02em">Comparisons of Night 1 and Night 2</h3><p id="__p33" class="p p-first-last">For the drug-free control group, few PSG changes were evident between the two nights. In contrast, in the MJ group, mean sleep parameters were worse on the second night suggesting overall sleep was more disturbed on the second night versus the first night for the MJ group. However, none of the paired <em>t</em>-tests reached statistical significance. Levels of THC-COOH declined significantly from Night 1 (M = 515, SD = 826 ng/mL) to Night 2 (M = 196, SD = 261 ng/mL) (Wilcoxon signed ranks test; z = −2.85, P < 0.01). We examined the correlations of THC-COOH levels with the change from Night 1 to 2 for the various sleep variables in an attempt to address in part the issue of the extent to which the disturbed sleep is due to heavy THC use. The higher the THC-COOH level at admission, the greater the decline in TST from Night 1 to Night 2 (r = −0.733).</p></div><div id="__sec26"><h3 id="__sec26title" style="font-size:1.02em">Subjective Ratings of MJ Craving, Mood, and Sleep Satisfaction</h3><p id="__p34" class="p p-first">The MJ users completed daily MJ withdrawal symptom and craving questionnaires. The amount of MJ craving was low (a score of 40 on an 80-point scale), changed little over time (morning after Night 1-Day 1; M = 40, SD = 18; morning after Night 2-Day 3; M = 37, SD = 15), and did not correlate with any of the PSG measures. Likewise, the total withdrawal symptom score did not change from Day 1 (7.6 ± 3.6) to Day 2 (7.5 ± 5.2) and did not correlate with any PSG measures. In addition, the MJ users did not endorse items reflecting increases in depressed mood or irritability on the POMS over the 3 days of abstinence.</p><p id="__p35" class="p">All participants rated their Sleep Satisfaction (sleep diary) for 5 mornings “pre” and 3 mornings “post” admission/MJ discontinuation. Group differences in sleep satisfaction were only found on Night 1 (<em>t</em><sub>29</sub> = 2.10, P < 0.05; <a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/figure/F1/" target="figure" rid-figpopup="F1" rid-ob="ob-F1" co-legend-rid="lgnd_F1" target="_blank"><span>Figure 1</span></a>). However, the MJ group reported less sleep satisfaction than controls for all nights with the exception of Night −2 when the groups rated sleep satisfaction equally. Within-group comparisons showed a decline in sleep satisfaction from the last night prior to MJ discontinuation (Night <sup>−1</sup>) to the first night after MJ discontinuation (Night <sup> 1</sup>) <em>t</em><sub>12</sub> = 2.14, P < 0.05, in the MJ users but not the drug-free controls suggesting that withdrawal symptoms may have contributed to their subjective reports.</p><!--fig ft0--><!--fig mode=article f1--><div id="F1" co-legend-rid="lgnd_F1"><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/figure/F1/" target="figure" rid-figpopup="F1" rid-ob="ob-F1" target="_blank"><!--fig/graphic|fig/alternatives/graphic mode="anchored" m1--><div id="largeobj_idm139931718311232"><a target="object" href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/figure/F1/?report=objectonly" target="_blank">Open in a separate window</a></div></a><div id="lgnd_F1"><div><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2442418/figure/F1/" target="figure" rid-figpopup="F1" rid-ob="ob-F1" target="_blank">Figure 1</a></div><!--caption a7--><div><p id="__p36">Sleep satisfaction from 3 mornings pre-discontinuation of MJ or pre-admission to the GCRC and 3 mornings post-discontinuation or post-admission. The vertical line represents MJ discontinuation. * indicates group differences on 1 Night. The MJ group reported significantly less sleep satisfaction on Night <sup> 1</sup> of MJ discontinuation than on Night −1 prior to MJ discontinuation (P < 0.05).</p></div></div></div></div><div id="__sec27"><h3 id="__sec27title" style="font-size:1.02em">Relationship between MJ Use (Joints/Week and Duration) and Sleep Architecture</h3><p id="__p37" class="p p-first-last">In the MJ group, we used linear regression analyses and included joints/week, joints/week squared, duration and duration squared, as independent variables and only the sleep variables with normal distributions for both nights as the dependent variables into the models. We found no significant associations between joints per week and duration of MJ use and any of the sleep related indices. We also examined if the 5 MJ users meeting the diagnosis for cannabis dependence showed more sleep disturbance than those MJ users not meeting diagnostic criteria. No group mean differences were detected on any of the sleep variables using <em>t</em>-tests.</p></div></div><div id="__sec28"><h2 id="__sec28title" style="font-size:1.05em">DISCUSSION</h2><p id="__p38" class="p p-first">The MJ users showed differences in PSG measures (lower total sleep times, and less slow wave sleep than the control group) on both nights; they also showed worse sleep efficiency, longer sleep onset and shorter REM latency than the control group on Night 2. More sleep continuity parameters were significantly worse for the MJ group than the control group on Night 2 versus Night 1, indicating that sleep in the MJ group was relatively worse on Night 2 compared to Night 1. Of note, the MJ group did not show improved sleep after an adaptation night as expected. The effects were moderate to large. Withdrawal symptoms, craving, and depression did not appear to influence these findings.</p><p id="__p39">During the 2 nights after MJ discontinuation, the MJ users had less total sleep time, lower sleep efficiency, longer sleep latency, shorter initial REM latency, and less SWS (min and %TST). Although not reaching significance statistically, perhaps due to the small sample size and intersubject variability, the MJ users tended to show less REM (min), more PLMs, and more WASO. Sleep disruption appeared to become worse on Night 2 compared to Night 1 after MJ discontinuation. This is in contrast to the typical sleep laboratory finding of improved sleep after an adaptation night and thus could be related to the effects of decreasing concentration of THC-COOH on sleep.</p><p id="__p40">We did not find any association between amount or duration of MJ use and any of the sleep variables. This was somewhat surprising since we have shown an association between the number of joints per week of MJ smoked and neurocognitive functioning<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B10" rid="B10" id="__tag_152447144" target="_blank">10</a></sup> and brain activity during specific tasks.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B11" rid="B11" id="__tag_152447137" target="_blank">11</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B24" rid="B24" id="__tag_152447149" target="_blank">24</a></sup> We speculate that specific aspects of sleep behave differently than specific areas of neurocognitive functioning. This needs to be explored further in a larger sample of MJ users with a wide range of MJ use. In future studies, we plan to extend our investigation of the relationship between amount and duration of MJ use and sleep disturbances and include an examination of daily patterns of use. For example, the subset of MJ users who only smoke MJ prior to bedtime may be the subset of MJ who show the most sleep disturbance.</p><p id="__p41">In general, young adults show abundant levels of SWS (deep sleep), averaging greater than 58 min during the night and about 20% of TST. Subjective reports of disturbed sleep in MJ users once they discontinue MJ use<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B1" rid="B1" id="__tag_152447148" target="_blank">1</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B2" rid="B2" id="__tag_152447160" target="_blank">2</a></sup> may relate to lower levels of SWS.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B25" rid="B25" id="__tag_152447153" target="_blank">25</a></sup> Decreased SWS has previously been reported in abstinent MJ users<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B26" rid="B26" id="__tag_152447130" target="_blank">26</a></sup> and chronic alcoholics; SWS can often take more than 6 months to recover to normal amounts.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B27" rid="B27" id="__tag_152447116" target="_blank">27</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B28" rid="B28" id="__tag_152447157" target="_blank">28</a></sup> For Nights 1 and 2, the MJ users had shorter mean initial REM latency than controls. A shortening of initial REM latency (< 90 min) may be secondary to a rebound phenomenon that may be related to reports of REM suppression from acute MJ administration.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B5" rid="B5" id="__tag_152447136" target="_blank">5</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B6" rid="B6" id="__tag_152447133" target="_blank">6</a></sup></p><p id="__p42">This pilot study is one of the few studies that examine PSG characteristics with discontinuation of heavy MJ use. The MJ users consistently showed more sleep disturbance than the drug-free control group. Since no PSG data were collected during the period prior to discontinuation of MJ use, we can not discern whether the disturbed sleep findings reflect general differences between MJ users and drug-free controls, or are related to cessation of MJ use.</p><p id="__p43">A strength of our study was that both groups were similar in baseline demographics and sleep characteristics based on sleep logs and SHQ measures of sleep habits. Therefore, we believe that some degree of the difference seen between the groups is related to the use and discontinuation of MJ. While there were more men than women in the MJ group, additional analyses found no sex-related differences on any of the PSG measures and therefore would not have influenced these findings. In addition, alcohol intake and nicotine use was minimal in both groups, and the MJ group reported using only MJ. We also excluded individuals with current or past dependence on any other substance or if their urine toxicology screens were positive for drugs other than MJ. Furthermore, these effects are unlikely related to comorbid mood or personality alteration, since we excluded MJ users with comorbid Axis I psychiatric disease and antisocial personality disorders, as well as any physical or neurological disorder that may affect sleep. Since there was little change in ratings of withdrawal symptoms, craving, or mood, we do not believe that the observed sleep disturbance was psychologically/craving induced. This is likely because our participants withdrew from MJ in an inpatient setting where environmental cues that elicit craving are absent. Rather, we postulate that the detected sleep disturbance in MJ users is more likely associated with alterations of the neural substrates of sleep.</p><p id="__p44">The association between the use and cessation of MJ and sleep disturbance is biologically plausible and we believe that there are neurobiological mechanisms to explain such a relationship. Marijuana's primary active constituent is delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ<sup>9</sup>-THC) with neural effects mediated through abundant cannabinoid (CB1) receptors in the brain. One of the effects of THC administration is sedation. Our group of MJ users confirmed this, as many of them reported on the SHQ that they use MJ to help them sleep. Interestingly, the MJ users report negligible use of alcohol, sleeping pills, or other medicines to induce sleep. Proposed mechanisms for this action have included reports that endogenous cannabinoids increase adenosine (a sleep promoter)<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B9" rid="B9" id="__tag_152447138" target="_blank">9</a></sup> and that CB1 mRNA is co-expressed with neuropeptides of the lateral hypothalamus resulting in inhibition in arousal systems.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B9" rid="B9" id="__tag_152447147" target="_blank">9</a></sup> Thus, the examination of sleep disturbance in heavy MJ users increases our knowledge about cannabinoids influence on sleep.</p><p id="__p45">The use and discontinuation of MJ use and disorders of sleep may involve similar brain regions.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B11" rid="B11" id="__tag_152447151" target="_blank">11</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B24" rid="B24" id="__tag_152447129" target="_blank">24</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B29" rid="B29" id="__tag_152447127" target="_blank">29</a>–<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B31" rid="B31" id="__tag_812893663" target="_blank">31</a></sup> The prefrontal cortex (i.e., anterior cingulate cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and the orbitofrontal cortex) plays an important role in normal sleep and alterations in this region are reported in persons with insomnia,<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B30" rid="B30" id="__tag_152447118" target="_blank">30</a></sup> sleep deprivation,<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B29" rid="B29" id="__tag_152447119" target="_blank">29</a></sup> and in 30-day abstinent heavy MJ use.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B11" rid="B11" id="__tag_152447145" target="_blank">11</a></sup> The orbitofrontal cortex is a brain region of special interest. Discontinuation of MJ use and difficulty initiating and maintaining sleep are associated with decreased metabolism in the OFC<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B24" rid="B24" id="__tag_152447131" target="_blank">24</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B30" rid="B30" id="__tag_152447140" target="_blank">30</a></sup> and acute administration of THC increases OFC metabolism,<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B32" rid="B32" id="__tag_152447155" target="_blank">32</a></sup> which may alleviate insomnia. This mechanism may explain the propensity to relapse after a short abstinent period.</p><p id="__p46">Although these findings are in a small sample of MJ users, our results are robust and biologically plausible. Effect sizes were medium to large according to Cohen (> 0.50). In addition, we selected participants stringently and were able to match the groups on a number of important variables including morningness-eveningness traits, overall ratings of sleep quality, and sleep pattern characteristics. Nevertheless, the present data cannot determine where MJ use and sleep disturbance fall in the causal pathway. For example, it is possible that individuals with innate sleep problems in early childhood and adolescence are more likely to abuse illegal substances and alcohol later in life.<sup><a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B33" rid="B33" id="__tag_152447139" target="_blank">33</a>,<a href="www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov#B34" rid="B34" id="__tag_152447146" target="_blank">34</a></sup> If our sample of MJ users had innate sleep problems then it is interesting that they report using only MJ to help them sleep and not other substances including alcohol, sleeping pills, and other sleep inducing formulations. Other limitations of the study include limited generalization to all users of MJ since our sample was primarily young, reported sleep disturbance when discontinuing smoking MJ in the past and some smoked large amounts of MJ. We selected only MJ users who reported sleep disturbance when attempting to discontinue MJ use in the past because as a first step, we were only interested in our ability to determine if objective PSG abnormalities were present in a carefully chosen sample of MJ users self-reporting sleep disturbance with discontinuation of MJ use. Also, because our far-reaching goal is to determine the clinical significance of sleep disturbance on treatment outcome in MJ users, we focused our efforts only on MJ users reporting sleep disturbance during past attempts at abstinence.</p><p id="__p47" class="p p-last">From an addiction treatment perspective, it is not critical whether sleep disturbance precedes or follows MJ discontinuation, but rather if disturbed sleep precipitates relapse in treatment-seeking MJ users. If disorders of sleep contribute to relapse of MJ use, then we could treat MJ users experiencing sleep difficulties with appropriate behavioral and pharmacological approaches. Ameliorating some of the unpleasant withdrawal symptoms would likely increase the number of heavy MJ users who successfully complete drug rehabilitation. Many questions related to sleep disorders in substance abusers remain unanswered highlighting the importance of further investigation on this important topic.</p></div><div id="idm139931769680656"><h2 id="idm139931769680656title" style="font-size:1.05em">ACKNOWLEDGMENTS</h2><div><p id="__p50">We thank the nurses and clinical staff at NIDA-IRP and the Johns Hopkins Bayview GCRC who contributed to this project. We especially thank Debra Hill, BA, for computer and database support.</p><p id="__p51">Supported by NIH grants DA 17122(KB), the JHBMC-GCRC (MO1 RR02719) and the DHH NIDA Intramural Research Program.</p></div></div><div id="idm139931726858288"><h2 id="idm139931726858288title" style="font-size:1.05em">Footnotes</h2><!--back/fn-group--><div><p class="fn sec" id="idm139931713878000"><p id="__p48" class="p p-first"><strong>Disclosure Statement</strong></p><p id="__p49" class="p p-last">This was not an industry supported study. Dr. Lesage has participated in speaking engagements for GlaxoSmithKline. Dr. Neubauer has been a consultant to and has participated in speaking engagements for Sanofi-Aventis and Takeda and has consulted for Neurocrine Biosciences and Pfizer. Dr. Funderburk has been a consultant/statistician for Nova Flux Technologies and is the owner of InCompass Systems, an independent research and consulting company. The other authors have indicated no financial conflicts of interest.</p></div></div><div id="idm139931769698656"><h2 id="idm139931769698656title" style="font-size:1.05em">REFERENCES</h2><div id="reference-list"><div id="B1">1. <span class="citation">Budney AJ, Moore BA, Vandrey BS, Hughes MD. 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Genetics    
 
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Recipes    
 
The Spruce Eats
The famous Moroccan spice blend, ras el hanout, might include 30 or more ingredients. This recipe is simpler but still tasty and aromatic.

Instructions:
Gather the ingredients. Place all of the spices into a bowl and stir to combine evenly.Transfer the spice mix to a glass jar and store it in a dry, cool place away from heat and sunlight for up to six months. Enjoy it in your favorite meat, tagine, and stew recipes.

Ingredients:
2 teaspoons ground ginger
2 teaspoons ground cardamon
2 teaspoons ground mace
1 teaspoon ground cinnamon
1 teaspoon ground allspice
1 teaspoon ground coriander seeds
1 teaspoon ground nutmeg
1 teaspoon turmeric
1/2 teaspoon ground black pepper